Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014


Prediction Changed
2014-05-15 08:45:00

Constituency Profile


Desjardins, Chris

Devries, Irma

Marshall, Scott

Pettapiece, Randy

Roth, Marie

Skinner, Stewart

Smith Fullerton, Romayne

Randy Pettapiece


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Perth-Wellington)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    14 06 10 A.S.
    John Wilkinson barely won in 2003; then he became a McGuinty favourite and defied expectations of certain defeat by super-running in 2007; then his McGuinty-favouriteness allowed him to be only mildly defeated in 2011. (The polling patterns tell it all; in 2007 the Lib-PC frontier was between Perth & Wellington Counties, in 2011 it was btw/Stratford and everything else.) No Wilkinson? No McGuinty? No threat to Pettipiece, who probably faces more of a "split" opposition than before, this being NDP-friendly SW Ontario...
    14 06 09 precision
    Notice that Kathleen Wynne is coming to this riding on June 9th. This is significant as her team won't have her waste any precious time in the last few days on any ridings other than winnable ones. They must have internal polls showing that Libs can re-take this. Let's see what happens.
    14 06 05 Scupper
    Two observations from Mount Forest: there are barely any signs on lawns , Liberal candidate Skinner's advertising in the local Metroland weekly are incredibly well done.
    14 05 27 die hard
    Not sure how many of these comments are actually from people in the P/W riding but I have lived here for 42years and I am very active within the riding. People are not impressed with our current MPP Randy what's his name and the liberal candidate is virtually an unknown among average citizens. Now the NDP candidate however is prominent and has been in the media for the last year leading the charge on an environmental issue that was near and dear to many. I think that you really need to not count out the NDP in this riding, it could be the beginning of the provincial orange wave. Word on the street is that no one believes Hudaks ridiculous million job proposal, too many people have lost jobs in this riding over the years, they are skeptical to believe the liberals will do anything with the mishaps that have plagued them the last couple years, so many that I have spoke to are saying its been long enough since the rae era lets give the NDP a second chance they can't be any worse that the others.
    14 05 22 Alice
    This is going to be a close race and its far from an easy call. I think the Liberals are putting this riding back in play. I predict the Liberals to win here.
    14 05 18 Jeff316
    Only 30 percent of the riding changed hands when Perth was detached from Middlesex glued to Wellington but that was an important 30 percent. Liberal-friendly St Mary's and the London outskirts were swapped for virulently PC interior southern Ontario. Wilkinson managed to hang on for one election but once the wolves let loose in Wellington he knew he was toast.
    Pettapiece is nothing special but this will be a safe PC seat for years.
    14 05 14
    The PCs will hold this seat. Pettipiece has much better name recognition than during the last election and has done a good job as MPP.
    Moreover, not only will the progressive vote in Stratford be split by a strong NDP candidate, but the Liberal candidate has no profile in the riding.
    If Wilkinson thought he could win this seat, he would be running. The fact that he is not running is a clear indication that the PCs will win.
    14 05 12 Dr Bear
    Without the popular Liberal incumbent from 2011 this will stay solidly PC.
    14 05 11 R.O.
    Current mpp Randy Pettapiece should be able to hold this riding for the pc's . the liberals numbers in 2011 were strong cause they had a very popular mpp running for them , he's not back this election and don't see riding being as close is last time .
    14 05 05 Numbers Pundit
    It is true that Pettapiece barely squeaked by John Wilkinson in 2011. However the variables that play against the Liberals are too numerous in this riding to ignore. The Grits suffered in rural Ontario to virulent opposition to wind-turbines; consider Perth-Wellington ground zero in that debate. John Wilkinson had tremendous wealth despite a thinning of volunteers in the 2011 campaign; the new candidate does not bring the same external revenue in donations that a former sitting cabinet minister did. The left-leaning City of Stratford, where even decade-long serving Tory MP Gary Schellenberger, has repeatedly finished third in some polling stations can still win the riding overall. The Liberal campaign refused to conduct activity in 2011 in the Wellington portion of the riding due to hostility including Wilkinson cancelling appearances at events and all candidates' debates. That said, Tories do have their work cut out for them to ensure right-leaning voters don't become complacent especially if Hudak repeats his lackluster 2011 performance. Many areas of the Wellington portion of the riding don't know Pettapiece is their MPP (not Ted Arnott) and he has not been terribly visible in the area. The Grits have to shore up Stratford, St Marys, and southern Perth county to be competitive. The NDP have nominated a UWO professor from St Marys, imperiling the progressive vote in Stratford and area to split due to discord over Liberal scandals. Were this riding still Perth-Middlesex rather than its current (since 2007) boundaries, the Liberals would have a better shot. Tories will likely win; to lose this seat means losing several others in SW Ontario, but it will not be a Pettapiece romp. Watch late campaign if Wynne jets into Stratford. If she's seen in the riding within the last 7 days of the campaign, it suggests to the Liberal machine and their pollsters the riding is competitive. One to watch but not more than a number of others in the area.
    14 05 04 monkey
    It was close last time around as this was the riding of the Liberal agriculture minister. Since she is not running again, it will likely vote PC by a much larger margin like all its surrounding ridings. Only Stratford is somewhat more left leaning, but the PC support in the rest of the riding which is 2/3 of the population will easily cancel out any weakness there.
    14 05 04 PW_Farmer
    This riding was lost by just 210 votes last time, largely due to Liberal complacency thinking John Wilkinson would stroll to an easy victory, having won by 6000 votes the time before. Stratford didn't turn out to vote, and the rural areas mad with energy policies did.
    There is a new Liberal candidate, Stewart Skinner who is great and getting increased name recognition. The complacency won't be there this time - no one will assume it'll be an easy victory for him - But the question will be if the Liberal base is motivated enough to vote. I'm betting that the prospects of a Hudak government will be, and some NDPers in Stratford will have no problem strategic voting in order to prevent Pettapiece from returning to Queen's Park.
    The fact that Skinner is a farmer and understands agriculture, plus has a large personal network in Listowel could really help him mitigate PC strength there (Pettapiece is from there too, so there hometown advantage cancel each other out this time).
    I think a lot will depend on the campaign the leaders run. Currently, I'd say this riding is TCTC (too close to call) but I think Skinner can eek out a victory
    13 06 17 Full
    The Liberals lost last time out by under 300 votes, Pettapiece has been underwhelming. with current polling trends under Wynne, if Wilkinson can be convinced to run again he can retake Perth Wellington.
    13 02 24 LFC Ottawa
    Randy defeated the agriculture minister in 2011. In a riding wherefarming, red tape, and wind turbines are the big issues, its hard to see anyone but the PC's winning.

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