Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Scarborough-Rouge Park


Prediction Changed
2018-05-25 10:38:00
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

BYERS, TODD

DE SILVA, PRIYAN

PITAMBER, AMIT MAHENDRA

SAMUEL, FELICIA

SHAN, SUMI

THANIGASALAM, VIJAY


Incumbent(s):
    Pickering-Scarborough East
   Hon Tracy MacCharles

   (45.60% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Scarborough-Rouge River
   Raymond Sung Joon Cho

   (40.50% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Scarborough-Guildwood
   Hon Mitzie Hunter

   (13.90% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):102646


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

18140 47.98%
9290 24.57%
9035 23.90%
856 2.26%
OTHERS 488 1.29%
Total Transposed 37810

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Pickering-Scarborough East

10509
5141
2906
494
Others291
Total Transposed19341

     Scarborough-Rouge River

4901
2684
5249
142
Others108
Total Transposed13083

     Scarborough-Guildwood

2731
1466
880
220
Others90
Total Transposed5386


Federal Election Result (2015):

Gary Anandasangaree
2991360.20%
Leslyn Lewis
1358727.40%
KM Shanthikumar
514510.40%
Calvin Winter
10102.00%


 

02/06/2018 The_A_Man33
184.75.213.194
With the NDP candidate has many things to her advantage, having been nominated early, able to campaign early, the NDP momentum, having no incumbent, this is definitely to her advantage. Plus she is extremely hard working and will be a great MPP.
02/06/2018 Dr. Bear
184.175.13.231
NDP are still ahead in this riding. With Wynne conceding that she will not be premier after Thursday and OLP focusing on holding incumbent seats (like Agincourt and Guildwood), I suspect the NDP will get a further boost here.
31/05/2018 Guestimator
65.92.201.157
NDP surged too soon. This one will go to the PC's.
25/05/2018 ML
69.77.168.131
This is a very difficult riding to predict. As a large 'ethnoburb' the area is relatively removed from the chattering-class 'strategic vote' factor. The NDP has a solid base in North West Scarborough that helped elected an MP in 2011 and an affiliated NDP councillor in 2017. The Ford family has a very loyal following in Scarborough, and it might be enough to ward off the NDP challenger. I anticipate a third place Liberal finish.
25/05/2018 agp1989
99.249.221.84
With the recent NDP surge, I think the momentum in this riding is with the NDP. The Liberals, historically, have done well here, when you look at the makeup of the new riding. Ford has alienated a lot of voters. I think the Left vote here will swing to the NDP, just enough to squeak them in. PCs will be a very close second.
5/22/2018 Bza
142.229.115.110
NDP won't pick up many seats in Scarborough, but it looks like this one could potentially end up in the NDP column.
22/05/2018
65.110.217.24
Local polls show the NDP leading and the LISPOP have awarded the riding to the NDP as of Today
13/05/2018 Joe
99.243.204.67
Raymond Cho proved the PC's can win here, they're far up in Toronto polling, and they've nominated a strong candidate. This one's going PC
08/05/2018 Innocent bystander
67.215.130.68
The first Toronto poll in months was released on May 8.
Liberals down 19 points in Scarborough, PCs up 16.
27/03/2018
70.48.47.204
Who is the National Council of Canadian Tamils endorsing? That's hugely consequential here.
18/03/2018 A.S.
184.151.179.135
What's interesting to observe is how the circumstances that lately and rather unexpectedly led NE Scarborough to trend NDP have been segmented away through redistribution, Neethan Shan going municipal, the defeated Rathika going Liberal, etc. Scar N is working out to be a strict Tory-Lib battle, while whatever's rumpily left of the orange redoubt in SRR is overwhelmed by Highland Creek Village, West Rouge, and other such easternmost-416 quasi-exurbia. This is territory that came closer than anyplace in the 416 to going Reform in 1993, but has since moderated; right now, if SRR 'goes Ford', it could just as well be (esp. under the present candidacy) ethnoburbia-propelled, instead. (West Rougers being too remote and car-dependent to care about subways.)
18/01/2018 R.O.
24.146.17.189
Considering the results of the Scarborough Rogue River by election it seems premature to predict the riding this early as liberal. It seems the Scarborough area is more competitive than past years.
21/12/2017 Gabbith
75.98.19.133
This should be too close to call. Brown's made significant inroads with Tamils, who are a large portion of the riding. The PC candidate is a local Tamil youth leader who should make inroads in Malvern. The South part of the riding will easily go PC with current polling numbers.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
This is a fairly safe Liberal riding and should stay Liberal unless the NDP experiences the type of surge they do in Scarborough as in 2011 federally. The PCs could get in the low 30s, but that is their ceiling so only strong splits would allow them to win. So unless polls change dramatically I am calling this for the Liberals.



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