Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:27:52

Constituency Profile


Cooper, Matthew

Reichel, Kelsey

Rogers, Churence

Vokey, Sharon


Churence Rogers

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



16806.97 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Judy M. Foote ** 2870481.80%
Mike Windsor 353410.10%
Jenn Brown 25577.30%
Tyler John Colbourne 2970.80%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 660.21%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Random-Burin-St. George's
   (41.75% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor
   (36.22% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (22.03% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
My riding. Conservative candidate is relatively strong but this riding's way to Liberal to change.
08/10/19 R.O.
The liberals held the riding relatively easily in the 2017 by election with Churence Rogers as candidate , cpc numbers did improve somewhat from 2015. Former cpc candidate Mike Windsor for some reason decided not to run and Sharon Vokey is the new candidate.
01/09/19 A.S.
Just because BBT landslid t/w the Liberals in 2015 doesn't make it an impenetrable Crowfoot equivalent--such is the turn-on-the-dime quirkiness of Newf politics; after all, in the predecessor riding of Burin-St. George's, Liberal Roger Simmons *also* got 80%+ in 1993, only to be defeated by the PCs' Bill Matthews in 1997. I'm not saying such an upset's in store now; just pointing it out. (See? It doesn't just happen to the Jack Harrises around these parts)
30/05/19 Laurence Putnam
Every party has at least one - what Crowfoot is to the Tories, what Vancouver East is to the NDP, what Saanich-Gulf Islands is to the Greens...so Bonavista-Burin-Trinity is to the Liberals.
14/04/19 Sam
Safest Liberal seat in Atlantic Canada, and their highest vote share in the country last time. Churence Rogers will be re-elected.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Very safe Liberal riding so easy hold.

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