Dwellings occupied by usual residents:
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
|Yvonne Jones **
2011 Results (redistributed)
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
(100% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
|Yvonne Jones will win here again. This seat went CPC in a fluke in 2011. Won't happen again.|
|Typically a safe liberal seat although cpc did win the riding in 2011. Not really a cpc target this year and even if they do better which is likely as polls for atlantic Canada show a closer race this year , it still be a liberal riding.|
|Agreed on how territorial dynamics might explain the 2011 Penashue win--though it's not always a matter of party labels mattering *less*; in fact, in cases like this and Nunavut's Aglukaqq, the labels arguably meant *more* in a seat-at-the-government-table way. (Whereas more infrastructurally connected ridings could afford to throw their vote on behalf of an opposition force.) And given the party in question, there might also have been some attempt to channel Diefenbaker-era Northern Vision magnanimity--but of course, Harper's no Dief, and the cloud over Penashue led him to lose the resulting byelection and then finishing *third* in the following general (the worst result for any '11 winner running for the same party in '15, even if not technically a re-election bid). And who knows, if there's a provincially-triggered Jordan Brown honeymoon, the NDP might even finish second again this time around...|
|While I adamantly agree with all previous posters that this is in the Liberal column come October, I have a slightly different take on the interpretation of the 2011 Conservative win. |
I would say that Labrador, due primarily to its' isolation, is much more similar to ridings like Nunavut or Yukon than other ridings in Newfoundland; and that in ridings like these the party label matters much, much less. What goes on on the ground in a riding like this may not be so easily reflected in polling and if indeed the party label means so much less here you cannot rely on past peformance as an indicator of future success with the degree of certainty that you can at Alberta ridings for the Tories or Montreal ridings for the Liberals, say.
That's how you get Penashue and Aqlukaqq winning ridings for the Conservatives that could be just as easily persuaded to vote Liberal or NDP in the next election cycle, or Dennis Bevington in one election and a Liberal in the next. I think the Greens could win ridings like this with the right candidate and message.
I suspect that the Liberals are generally the winners here because they are better organized in communities like this where government grants and assistance are so important. The Liberals know who the right personalities are in ridings like these to recruit and run to win. The Conservatives aren't as philosophically aligned by nature and are less organized. The NDP have no union base to run with in the riding and are less organized.
So all that being said, I would say a riding like this is highly susceptible to change into the hands of any party which has the foresight, organization and ability to recruit the right candidate and run here with the right message.
|The Conservative squeaker win in 2011 must surely rank as one of the biggest and weirdest flukes in Canadian electoral history. It's still scarcely believable that they managed to win here, and of course it was quickly back to normal by a super-landslide in the subsequent byelection and the general election that followed. No chance that lightening can strike twice here.|
|This is a definite Liberal hold, it's one of those once-Tory seats that won't return to them.|
|The Tory win in 2011 was a bit of a fluke and while I doubt they will do quite as badly as in 2015, I don't expect them to win this anytime soon.|
|The Liberals aren't in a fallout like in 2011, so I'd expect the usual landslide here again.|