|Never say never to a Conservative winning here. Iggy was Liberal leader here in 2011 and lost the seat. Still 2011 and 2019 are different times and I have the Liberals holding on here.
|Favoured to go Liberal but after a drive through the area, it seems there is some potential for a competitive race. All parties are very actively campaigning, and there is an equal amount of Liberal and Conservative signs. PPC has a significant presence as well.
|One of the biggest upsets in 2011 with a Liberal leader losing this seat. However, in 2015 it went back into the Liberal column by a comfortable margin. With that this seat will stay Liberal red.
|The 'never really been Conservative' argument now seems quite ironic, given how Patrick Boyer had the highest (albeit losing) Tory share in Toronto in 1993 and the (arguably deceiving) reverberations from that led to John Capobianco staging Toronto's strongest CPC challenges here in 2004 and (vs Iggy) 2006. (But the Boyer and post-Boyer dynamic was more Red Tory.) And while the condo boom definitely helps the Libs now, it'd be pushing things to say it would have done so in 2011--in fact, if we draw from the last provincial election and the more upward-level polls from agencies like Nanos, we could just as well be seeing the condos leading the *NDP* to gain at the expense of the *Cons*. Which, of course, works to the Libs' benefit in the end.
|Safe Liberal. 2011 and 2018 were likely flukes brought on by vote splitting and a strong NDP in a riding that they never have a chance of winning in. The Conservative ceiling here is in the high 30s and dropping as new condo towers continue to go up, mostly made up of natural Liberal voters who could occasionally swing NDP (or Green) if necessary.
With the NDP polling extremely low, vote splitting certainly won't be a factor this fall. Without that, there is no way that Etobicoke-Lakeshore goes anything but red this time around. The working class base of past elections is largely gone, which only helps the LPC. Interestingly, if today's demographics had existed then, Michael Ignatieff might have been able to survive in 2011.
|This riding has never really been Conservative, neither federal or provincial. Provincial it's gone from NDP to bellwether and federally it can be classified as a Liberal seat which on occasion elects a Conservative. Federally, the Tories have only beaten the Liberals twice, once in their 1984 landslide and once in the 2011 Liberal meltdown, sure they did win in '88, but that year, this was the only riding that didn't have a Liberal candidate. So, unless the Tories are in a 1984 landslide position or the Liberals have a total meltdown, this riding will stay Liberal
|This is a seat slowly trending away from the Conservatives with more young voters moving into the eastern part of the riding and it becoming more like a 'downtown' seat. The PC incumbent provincially got a good vote split to win but I do not think this is a seat Jagmeet will make inroads in, so the LPC should hold most of the left of centre vote.
|Bernard Trottier, a moderate Conservative who was actually a decent fit for this riding was trounced last time by the Liberals. Andrew Scheer's brand is similar to the Conservatives last time, and is not suited to the Toronto suburbs. Given that the Liberal win for James Maloney was very substantial last time, another win for them seems the most likely option.