Atkins, Bria
	Lalande, Rob
	Li, Anthony
	McCormick, Jesse
	Mclay, Dylan
	Rood, Lianne
Incumbent:
	Bev Shipley

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			105331 105919 45783 41600 4920.98 km² 21.4/km²
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Bev Shipley **	28300	50.20%
	Ken Filson	16592	29.40%
	Rex Isaac	9598	17.00%
	Jim Johnston	1873	3.30%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		29322	57.75%
		12162	23.95%
		7186	14.15%
		1693	3.33%
Other		413	0.81%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex    (99.99% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Chatham-Kent-Essex    (0.01% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Monte Mcnaughton *	27906	55.34%
	Todd Case	16800	33.32%
	Mike Radan	3143	6.23%
	Anthony Li	1660	3.29%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		9136	20.19%
		20514	45.33%
		11969	26.44%
		2072	4.58%
Other		1570	3.47%

	21/10/19	Tony Ducey 24.137.73.188
The Liberal MP here during the Chretien yrs. was known for being more right politically than other Liberals. I think that means the CPC hold this riding tomorrow.
	14/10/19	Williams_Theo 99.255.248.252
No contest win for the Conservatives here. Fun tidbit though: while driving through this riding I was listening to a popular London-area rock radio station (I live in London, btw). Much to my surprise I hear ads for the Liberal candidate in this riding! Not sure what the impact of these ads will be in this riding (perhaps something in the London-adjacent parts), but bless his socks for trying at least.
	16/09/19	R.O. 24.146.17.200
Bev Shipley has retired so perhaps a different race here although likely to stay conservative as its one of the better ridings in this region .
	18/08/20	A.S. 99.225.32.21
Re the Libs in LKM: they did not hold it in the Harris era and only in Mulroney's second term; but yes, this used to be a swing riding back when the federal Grits (to say nothing of their provincial counterparts) still had a strong rural base. The usual too-rural/too-socially-conservative alibis pertain here (remember that MPP Monte McNaughton was a right-of-centre provincial leadership contender in 2015). There's a strong NDP base in the reserves and industrial Wallaceburg and a Franco-Ontarian Liberalness in the far SW that reawakened itself at the ballot box in 2015--but 'Fordism' led to Tory overperformance in Wallaceburg in 2018. With all existing opposition gambits exhausted or neutralized, I don't know what's left to bank on...London exurbia? (And following in the footsteps of the Ford swing, the nature of PPC *might* be such where it's likelier to steal from Wallaceburg populism than from CHP conservatism...let's wait and see)
	01/04/19	Craig 130.18.104.137
It's hard to believe, as recently as 2006, this seat was held by the Liberals federally and as recently as 2011 by them provincially. They also held this through the Harris and Mulroney days too. In just this decade, this has turned hard against them and they have fallen to the point of irrelevance. Trudeau is very unpopular in rural southwestern Ontario as well and SNC-Lavalin magnifies that. While this is a largely working class riding, it is also quite religious. Since the NDP have never been super-strong here, even without Bev Shipley the new Conservative candidate should win big here (unless the PPC nominate a star candidate and the CPC picks a Red Tory too liberal for the riding). Otherwise, this is very safe for the Conservatives.
	16/03/19	Sam 86.156.206.227
This is one of the best Conservative ridings in Ontario; the interesting race will be for the Conservative nomination. It's the one of the worst parts of the province for the Liberals.
	24/02/19	M. Lunn 174.7.100.252
One of only five ridings in Ontario the Tories got over 50% in 2015 so considering it is largely rural and how unpopular the Liberals are in rural Southwestern Ontario, I suspect they will hold this without too much difficulty.