Election Prediction Project

Richmond Centre
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:10:06

Constituency Profile


Innes, Dustin

Kou, Steven

Pak, Ivan

Raunet, Françoise

Wong, Alice

Zhang, Zhe


Alice Wong

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



43.23 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Alice Wong ** 1762244.20%
Lawrence Woo 1648641.40%
Jack Trovato 460211.50%
Vincent Chiu 11522.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 R.O.
Alice Wong has been mp of this riding since 2008 , it was much closer in 2015 although that was the case in many BC ridings that year. Unsure how issues like the feuding with China and Hong Kong situation play out here. but feel Alice Wong is a high profile enough incumbent to hold the seat.
18/09/19 A.S.
The Markham-Unionville of Greater Vancouver--hard to imagine that this was the fourth best CPC seat in BC in ‘15, or that they’d actually do better here than in Chilliwack-Hope. Then again, the 41% the Libs got is comparable to the mean back in Raymond Chan’s heyday, so it’s not like the Liberal bottom’s fallen out a la 2011, Huawei controversy or no. But it’s certainly a shift from Reform/Alliance days that the coastal Seafair zone had become, by 2015, a fairly solid bloc of Liberal polls within an overall Con seat.
13/04/19 Laurence Putnam
Until it's an open seat again, I think as long as Alice Wong keeps running here, she'll keep winning. The old assumption that Chinese votes automatically flock to the Liberal party should be questioned these days also; the Chinese community is very business-oriented and entrepreneurial; a Chretien/Martin Liberal party may be attractive but a far left Liberal party such as we have these days is going to alienate a lot of pro-business Chinese Canadians.
02/04/19 Craig
This was expected to go Liberal in 2015 - it didn't, although it was fairly close. The BC Liberals also held on quite well to the Richmond seats in 2017. Much like in seats like Markham-Unionville and Scarborough-Agincourt, the Chinese-Canadian population (who dominate here) has swung towards the Conservatives the last few years and it allowed Alice Wong to remain in Parliament.
There's no reason to believe that the Liberals will win it now given all that is going on and that demographics are not in their favour. Hence, Richmond Centre should remain the strongest Conservative seat in urban Metro Vancouver. Will Alice Wong get some company back though?
22/03/19 Lowlander
In an underperforming year the Conservatives were able to retain this seat in 2015. Additionally, the legalization of marijuana have not been a popular policy in Richmond locally. Low turnout plus the presence of a long-time incumbent will likely keep this riding firmly blue.
11/03/19 Dr.Bear
While TCTC is the correct call for Richmond this early in the game, I do believe that ultimately the Conservatives will keep this seat. Alice Wong is quite popular; the Liberals have a record to defend; the Liberals also currently have a dust-up with the Chinese government (significant Chinese population); Chinese-Canadians have increasingly been voting for right-of-centre parties. With these factors, my money is on a CPC hold. Still, let's wait and see before an official call because 2015 was very close.
03/03/19 Sam
One of the few ridings that was expected to go Liberal last time and did not, both due to the popularity of Alice Wong as an incumbent and candidate and the Chinese population, which has increasingly voted for Conservatives. As Alice Wong is running again this group is likely to mostly vote for her which should help her. This riding is urban but Conservative leaning enough that even though Andrew Scheer may not improve the Conservative vote here, the Conservatives are still in a very good position for their vote to hold up.

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