Election Prediction Project

Vancouver Kingsway
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:11:13

Constituency Profile


Cariou, Kimball

Davies, Don

Petersen, Donna

Quan, Helen

Taggart, Tamara

Taylor, Lawrence

Torn, Ian


Don Davies

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



15.30 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Don Davies ** 2076345.70%
Steven Kou 1262527.80%
Jojo Quimpo 953821.00%
Catherine Moore 14763.30%
Matt Kadioglu 4681.00%
Kimball Cariou 4451.00%
Donna Petersen 810.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 4411.21%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Vancouver Kingsway
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

19/10/19 SG
I would've had this as an NDP hold even during their polling doldrums but now it's probably going to be a landslide for Don Davies. Tamara Taggart will still be unemployed on Oct 22.
27/09/19 R.O.
Don Davies might be able to hold onto this one although with a smaller margin than 2015 unless the ndp does worse than expected in BC . liberals do have a high profile candidate as it seems there targeting a lot of the ndp seats this year.
NDP won this by almost 20% in 2015 despite the red wave, and have a popular incumbent running, so this should be one of the safest NDP seats in the nation. The weakness of the national Dipper vote has the Libs targeting even this riding though, they are running a well-known candidate and Trudeau himself came here on day 1 of the campaign. lf the NDP lose here, and they might, chances are they won’t hit official party status (12 seats). The NDP will be circling the wagons here, especially wth Jagpreet running next door, so l see this as one of the nights most interesting ‘underrated’ battles. lMO this as TCTC at the moment, rather than a safe NDP hold...though if push come to shove l’d say the Dippers have just enough cushion to hang on to this one by the skin of their teeth.
07/09/19 A.S.
Besides Don Davies' own virtues, the NDP's really running on provincial good will fumes here--but I agree that the recent Liberal history here works in their favour, and in fact it was somewhat surprising that Davies held on as strongly as he did in '15. (And as with so many TV-host candidates, there's something a little ‘too good to be true’ about Taggart.) Of course, a next-door-to-Jagmeet ‘sympathy vote’ could save Davies' skin, too...
03/09/19 South Islander
Liberals held this riding from its creation in 1997 until 2008. The NDP won it during the past 3 elections when they won 25% or more in BC. Current polling puts them at between 9% and 19%. The LPC are also running a very well-known candidate. This should maybe be TCTC, but I think Taggart will unseat Davies unless the NDP manages to reverse the current trend.
31/03/19 Sam
Like the others I just don't see the NDP losing here, it's been a strong area for them provincially and federally in the last ten years and Don Davies is running for re-election.
26/03/19 Laurence Putnam
Taggart is a well known, easily recognizable face that will give Davies a run for his money. Although the area is gentrifying, Vancouver-Kingsway is still a fairly solid NDP seat. Davies may be in for a bit of a dogfight here, but in the end, the odds are with him.
22/02/19 Islander
This is a pretty solidly NDP area and I don't expect the Liberals to gain much this time around, even if NDP support is declining overall.

Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster