Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Haldimand-Norfolk
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2021-05-16 23:29:10
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Lewis, Leslyn

Matthews, Karen


Incumbent:

Diane Finley

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

109652
108051

48192
43509

2859.09 km²
38.40/km²


2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Diane Finley ** 2801846.80%
Kim Huffman 1470424.50%
Adrienne Roberts 919215.30%
Brooke Martin 48788.10%
Bob Forbes 12342.10%
Harold Stewart 10831.80%
Lily Eggink 8171.40%


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Diane Finley ** 2471444.10%
Joan Mouland 2048736.60%
John Harris 762513.60%
Wayne Ettinger 18573.30%
Dave Bylsma 8841.60%
Dustin Wakeford 2720.50%
Leslie Bory 1510.30%


2011 Results (redistributed)

2565550.94%
1006219.98%
1254924.92%
16653.31%
Other 4350.86%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Haldimand-Norfolk
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Toby Barrett * 2888957.1%
Danielle Du Sablon 1360926.9%
Dan Matten 46569.2%
Anne Faulkner 20954.14%


2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

833119.72%
2206652.22%
978623.16%
20714.90%


31/07/20 Stevo
164.177.56.217
Yes, Dr. Lewis is a blatant parachute candidate. But in all of Canadian electoral history it never really seems to matter - has any candidate ever lost strictly due to local anger over a parachute candidate? I can only think of one example, John Tory losing the Haliburton byelection as provincial PC leader in 2009. But then, there were other leadership issues that contributed to that loss. I think Dr. Lewis will fit this riding like a glove and should have no difficulty winning over the locals.
13/05/21 Jeremus von Stroheim
99.251.36.14
This should be a very interesting race. On the surface it would seem a very safe conservative seat in which a social conservative would do very well, however there is a lot of anti-toronto sentiment locally, and they aren't particularly happy about having someone parachuted in. Should be a lot closer than it was in 2019, I'll update my prediction once I can check out the sign war.



Navigate to Canada 2021 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2021 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2021 - Email Webmaster