|I realize someone has to win this riding but I wouldn't rush to put this in the CPC camp. Bossio has a chance here again, with the conservative vote being split between CPC, PPC, and also the independent run by Jennifer Sloan.|
Bossio would also need a weak Green performance for the perfect split necessary to get more votes than Shelby Kramp-Neuman, but it's for sure not outside the realm of possibility. Very few people would have bet on his 2015 win, but this year it's arguably less far-fetched.
|Always has been conservative and they have an old boys network that wont allow change to happen|
|Jennifer Sloan, Derek Sloan's wife, is running as an independent here - the family must be very ambitious. But with no disrespect intended, the whole Sloan issue significance for this campaign - and of his potential party that no one seems to need - has been vastly overblown in the media. Voters the Sloans appeal to overwhelmingly try to defeat the Liberals first and foremost, not to vote for someone who may be morally righteous. And without joining the PPC (CHP being too insignificant to matter), Derek missed his chance already to get any meaningful number of votes in Ontario or Alberta, and Jennifer's vote will only matter in an extremely close race, perhaps only taking some from a PPC candidate with no name recognition. CPC candidate has in fact an even better name recognition. Most important, observers now see consolidation and increase in Cons support in swing partly rural ON ridings that Andrew Scheer failed to win or only won narrowly like this one - making a 2015-type Lib upset unlikely. Not entirely impossible, BUT... It would take more than just a potential minor decline in overall Cons polling numbers for Bossio to return to the Commons.|
|Woah! Hold your horses on the CPC call! Sure Sloan’s moving to Alberta makes this more likely to go CPC, as he is no longer splitting the right wing vote. However the past two elections were both close races, and Bossio will give the CPC a run for their money, Sloan or no Sloan. |
With Sloan, a likely Liberal win.
Without Sloan, TCTC.
|With Sloan out of the way the right of centre vote will be solidly in the Tory camp. I think Shelby Kramp-Neuman will cruise to a pretty comfortable victory over former MP Mike Bossio as this riding has pretty much always voted Conservative except for Trudeaumania 2.0 in 2015 and in the 1990s when the Reform/PCs split the vote and allowed the Grits to come up the middle.|
|For all of Bossio's strengths his climate change work apparently being one of them, I'm not sure I'd agree with the local resident that the CPC have a 42% ceiling what about 2011? Granted, it's nothing like 2011, but there are voters that can be peeled off in both directions. This'll be close, but I'd still give the CPC the edge.|
|This is too close to call.|
As of August 24, neither the NDP or the Greens have declared a candidate.
A quick look at the past two election results paint a clear picture of the emerging swing status of this riding.
In 2015 Liberal Bossio won a nail biter with a little over 21000 votes for 42.4% of the popular vote over a firmly entrenched and popular Conservative Kramp with just under 21000 votes or 41.9%.
In 2019 Bossio shed approximately 1500 votes and lost to Conservative Sloan who won with about 22000 votes but only 41.4% of the popular vote, a gain of about 1000 votes, but a loss of half a percent of popular vote, compared to Kramp's losing total.
The takeaway is....the Conservatives have a ceiling here of about 42% of the popular vote. Bossio, who shed votes to the NDP and the Greens in the past election also has a similar ceiling of 42%. If the NDP and the Greens remain on the sidelines with late declaring candidates, Bossio wins this.
As a lifelong resident in the north of this riding, I know the NDP and Green voters here are very focused on climate change and are aware that this issue is central to Bossio's platform.
|Derek Sloan has decided to run in Alberta instead of this riding , meaning he won’t split the vote . although not sure how many people would of voted for him anyways as some of his views are on the fringe . so the race here is now between conservative Shelby Kramp Newman and former liberal mp Mike Bossio . but with Sloan off the ballot the dynamics have changed and shifted the race in what is normally a tory friendly riding .|
|Sloan has pulled out. Running out of time to start his own party and being too arrogant to join either the PPC or Christian Heritage, he will run as an independent in Alberta's Banff riding.|
|This morning, Derek Sloan announced he would no seek re election in HLA and instead will present himself in Banff Airdrie. https://www.quintenews.com/2021/08/19/derek-sloan-leaving-ontarios-h-la-for-albertas-b-a/|
With the Vote splitting out of the way, I am prepared to move HLA into the Conservative column. With her father's organization, the riding's general inclinations and if she works hard for every vote, Shelby Kramp Neuman should win with a comfortable margin on September 20th.
|The Western Standard is reporting that Sloan won't run for re-election in this riding at all, but will instead seek in Alberta seat, possibly Banff-Airdrie. That has to be a slight boost to the Conservatives here, who don't need to worry about a vote split (though I'm inclined to agree with other posters that this effect wouldn't have been huge in any case).|
|While this is a conservative leaning riding, there are two things that give the Liberals a chance:|
1) Sloan will likely get a few percent of the vote. This won't be huge, but the combined vote of Sloan + PPC will likely be bigger than the PPC vote in 2019.
2) The largest growing area of the riding is Amherstview (basically a suburb of Kingston). Just do a Google street view through there - the houses and population is exploding. It's only about 10% of the riding's population, but certainly is the â€کleft wingâ€™ base of the riding.
|I live in Belleville in the BoQ section, and this is one riding that cannot be called at the moment. . I had been very concerned initially that with O'Toole throwing derek Sloan under the bus that he had effectively handed the riding over to the very hard working Mike Bossio, who won initially in 2015 on a shoestring budget by out hustling longtime incumbent Daryl Kramp, edging him out by 225 votes. |
Kramp learned his lesson, and was elected to Queens park in this riding and therefore has a team he can place at the disposal of the new Conservative candidate, Shelby Kramp Neuman, who as you can guess by her name, is his daughter. I supported Shelby in her bid for the Bay of Quinte nomination, and believe she is a striong candidate to face off against Mike Bossio. I have sen her sandwich boards up in Stirling and thus know she understands she needs to out hustle Bossio, and is taking no chances.
As for Sloan, I dont see him doing very well at all. The original anger over his ouster has dissipated in light of the reality that we are now going into an election where every vote and every seat counts in terms of getting rid of Justin Trudeau, and fortunately Shelby is the kind of candidate who will be acceptable to Sloan supporters who see the handwriting on the wall..
So locally we have a pretty good match up between two very hard working candidates, but one who has a slightly better organization behind her, so the national part of the race comes into play
I don't see Justin Trudeau is NOT popular in the rural sections of the riding.There is also some military living here who wiould prefer O'Toole, who is unpopular with others because of what he did to Sloan, so it becomes more of a referendum on trudeau.
As for Sloan, he has shot himself in the foot by his efforts to start a new party rather than focusing on winning the riding as an independent, or better by joining up with PPC or CHP, both of which would be good fits for him, and allow him to focus on the seat.
So as the writ is about to drop, I would put this in the TCTC column, but give a slight edge to Shelby Kramp Neuman and the Conservatives.
|Leaning Conservative. Bossio lost as an incumbent and has returned with a ‘back to normal’ campaign that will perform as well as in 2019. Sloan's original electoral success was more about the party than the candidate. Because of this, he will underperform his own expectations (likely end up around 5%). Even with some CPC support shedding to Sloan, the threat of Bossio returning will draw enough conservatives to the ballot box.|
|Mike Bossio will return to parliament after the next election due to a stronger LPC and a splintered right-wing.|
A surprise narrow win for the LPC in 2015, the CPC narrowly won it back in 2019 with about 2000 votes.
Sloan is starting a new party and is likely running again here under a new banner.
Any decline in GPC votes in this riding will likely be offset by an uptick of NDP support.
|Derek Sloan recently told Quinte News that he plans to run for re-election as an Independent. It will be interesting to see whether this has an impact on the race and takes away votes from the new Conservative candidate.|
|Looks like the Conservatives have a strong candidate in Shelby Kram- Neumann, but it will be a challenge for her if Sloan runs again whether as an independent or PPC. . Bossier will want to win this riding back for the Liberals and the split vote may work for him.|
|The trajectory here largely depends on what Derek Sloan does. If he does not run, the Conservatives will likely have a candidate more suited for the relative moderates in the southern part of the riding (along the Highway 401 corridor) and would probably win, even if those in the northern part vote reluctantly for the CPC.|
However, Sloan still has a decent number of constituents (particularly in the central and northern part of the riding) who share his views - socially conservative, populist, Trump-like. If he ran as an independent (or with the PPC), the Liberals would likely win on a vote split even if they make no headway (or regress) on their 2019 result. As a result, the Liberals are probably secretly wishing for Sloan to run.
|Actually, considering how this was the flukiest of all fluke '15 Justin Liberal pickups in Ontario, Bossio didn't do half bad as a Dead Liberal Walking--in fact, under the present split-in-the-right circumstance, ‘performing as well as in 2019’ *could* be enough to win. And even if Sloan only gets around 5%, that 5% is more than the margin Sloan won by in '19. That is, Bossio might not inspire *quite* as much Sloan-vote-split-fearing Con-plumping bad will as some may wish or pretend--of course, there's overtones of ‘rogue vote split allowing the opposition up the middle’ logic that proved fallacious in seats like Markham-Stouffville in '19; but I'm not sure whether that works the same way leftward vs rightward. And for the record, I have my doubts that Sloan will ‘inevitably’ score as little as 5%--indeed, that kind of wishful think re rogue breakaway parties and candidates might be one of the Conservatives' biggest current pitfalls; that is, they simply *cannot* imagine how many people *could* be drawn to People's, Maverick, Sloan's entity, etc. (And it's a blind spot that extends to the ‘Greater Kingston moderation’ that is the key to Liberal support here--it's all too easy to default onto a ‘Greater Bancroft’ pigeonhole instead.)|