Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Hastings-Lennox and Addington
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2021-05-10 21:58:34
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Bossio, Mike


Incumbent:

Derek Sloan

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

94333
92513

46932
37944

8372.75 km²
11.30/km²


2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Derek Sloan 2196841.40%
Mike Bossio ** 1972137.10%
David Tough 698413.20%
Sari Watson 31145.90%
Adam L. E. Gray 13072.50%


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Mike Bossio 2110442.40%
Daryl Kramp ** 2087941.90%
Betty Bannon 634812.70%
Cam Mather 14662.90%


2011 Results (redistributed)

2362954.85%
1033523.99%
735217.07%
14763.43%
Other 2850.66%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Prince Edward-Hastings
   (54.8% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington
   (45.2% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Daryl Kramp 2237450.25%
Nate Smelle 1444132.44%
Tim Rigby 518011.63%
Sari Watson 19244.32%


2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

1135931.22%
1443039.65%
834622.94%
20535.64%
Other 2010.55%


02/08/20 KingstonLocal
3.96.51.153
Leaning Conservative. Bossio lost as an incumbent and has returned with a ‘back to normal’ campaign that will perform as well as in 2019. Sloan's original electoral success was more about the party than the candidate. Because of this, he will underperform his own expectations (likely end up around 5%). Even with some CPC support shedding to Sloan, the threat of Bossio returning will draw enough conservatives to the ballot box.
30/07/20 KXS
99.247.130.189
Mike Bossio will return to parliament after the next election due to a stronger LPC and a splintered right-wing.
A surprise narrow win for the LPC in 2015, the CPC narrowly won it back in 2019 with about 2000 votes.
Sloan is starting a new party and is likely running again here under a new banner.
Any decline in GPC votes in this riding will likely be offset by an uptick of NDP support.
21/07/20 Marco Ricci
174.114.237.78
Derek Sloan recently told Quinte News that he plans to run for re-election as an Independent. It will be interesting to see whether this has an impact on the race and takes away votes from the new Conservative candidate.
https://www.quintenews.com/2021/06/30/sloan-to-seek-re-election/
13/07/20 Gsg
50.99.175.127
Looks like the Conservatives have a strong candidate in Shelby Kram- Neumann, but it will be a challenge for her if Sloan runs again whether as an independent or PPC. . Bossier will want to win this riding back for the Liberals and the split vote may work for him.
11/05/21 Craig
24.233.229.249
The trajectory here largely depends on what Derek Sloan does. If he does not run, the Conservatives will likely have a candidate more suited for the relative moderates in the southern part of the riding (along the Highway 401 corridor) and would probably win, even if those in the northern part vote reluctantly for the CPC.
However, Sloan still has a decent number of constituents (particularly in the central and northern part of the riding) who share his views - socially conservative, populist, Trump-like. If he ran as an independent (or with the PPC), the Liberals would likely win on a vote split even if they make no headway (or regress) on their 2019 result. As a result, the Liberals are probably secretly wishing for Sloan to run.



Navigate to Canada 2021 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2021 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2021 - Email Webmaster