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Kingston and the Islands
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2021-05-29 20:04:41
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Gerretsen, Mark


Incumbent:

Mark Gerretsen

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

117543
116996

58302
51451

355.75 km²
330.40/km²


2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Mark Gerretsen ** 3120545.80%
Barrington Walker 1585623.30%
Ruslan Yakoviychuk 1330419.50%
Candice Christmas 60598.90%
Andy Brooke 17692.60%


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Mark Gerretsen 3642155.40%
Andy Brooke 1492822.70%
Daniel Beals ** 1118517.00%
Nathan Townend 29334.50%
Luke McAllister 3050.50%


2011 Results (redistributed)

1928834.06%
1224221.62%
2266640.02%
24374.30%
Other 00.00%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Kingston and the Islands
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Ian Arthur 2178839.16%
Sophie Kiwala * 1531227.52%
Gary Bennett 1451226.08%
Robert Kiley 35746.42%


2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

1969842.06%
974420.80%
1378129.42%
33887.23%
Other 2240.48%


29/05/21 Libby Burgundy
198.91.168.152
Kingston has voted Liberal at every election since 1984, even during the party's 2011 meltdown. While Erin O'Toole's military connections may give his party a boost here, we'd probably need to see significant shifts in the Ontario polling before we'd talk about the Liberals losing Kingston.
28/05/21 MF
65.92.13.223
Kingston was a Liberal holdout in the 2011 debacle. It has a major university and is a generally progressive place akin in many ways to Burlington, Vermont or Madison, Wisconsin. The NDP came in second place in the last federal election and won Kingston in the last provincial election. Even the surrounding rural/exurban areas are rather small-’l’ liberal in character (a good number of professors and retired professionals live there), and much less conservative than the rest of rural and small-town Eastern Ontario.



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