Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 15:46:15

Constituency Profile


Baig, Uzair

De Vries, René

Jaczek, Helena

Sahi, Muhammad Ahsin

Smith, Ben


Helena Jaczek

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



282.59 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Helena Jaczek 2505538.90%
Theodore Antony 1970330.60%
Jane Philpott ** 1334020.70%
Hal Berman 41326.40%
Roy Long 16212.50%
Jeremy Lin 5370.80%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Jane Philpott 2941649.20%
Paul Calandra ** 2556542.80%
Gregory Hines 36476.10%
Myles O'Brien 11451.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 4060.86%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Oak Ridges-Markham
   (90.7% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (9.3% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Paul Calandra 2591248.12%
Helena Jaczek * 1400726.01%
Kingsley Kwok 1099720.42%
Jose Etcheverry 21534%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 7121.67%

19/09/21 Dr Bear
This is far more likely to go Liberal than, say, King-Vaughan (which I say will go Conservative).
18/09/21 KXS
Solid Liberal. Helena Jaczek is not losing to a 21 year old when the Liberals are polling well in the GTA. Expect her to win this by 10 points or higher.
03/09/21 CanPoliOracle
This is a changed race from 2019 without strong independent candidate and former Liberal cabinet minister Jane Philpott in the mix. It should be incumbent MP Helena Jaczek's race to lose. She is up against 21 year old greenhorn Ben Smith for the Conservatives who was a 2018 third place finisher in Markham for York Catholic District School Board Trustee (Area 2 - Wards 4,5,7 & 8). Mr. Smith seems to be the darling of local conservative stuffed-shirts, as the nomination race against 2019 candidate Theodore Antony was highly protracted seemingly to bolster Smith's chances of signing up more supporters.
The NDP & Greens are running relatively unknown candidates, with the NDP putting up an out-of-area Brampton resident. The NDP is very weak in the riding, during the 2019 race their candidate did not put up a single sign nor campaigned. This should help the Liberals to consolidate the left-leaning vote. The PPC has failed 2014 municipal candidate René De Vries on the ballot to carry the torch of the far-right, anti-vaccination crowd; he was barred from running municipally after failing to file his financials on time. All things being equal, and whether you like her or the Liberals or not, Jaczek is the most competent & qualified person in the race given her experience as a doctor, MPP, provincial cabinet minister and now MP. She should win.
02/09/21 R.O.
Very different race here than 2019 when Philpot ran as an independent . true Helena Jaczek is a well known mp and had also been mpp for same riding. But lets not forget why she decided to run federally it was cause she lost the same riding provincially when the tide turned against the provincial liberals. this riding may lean liberal but still a suburban swing riding with a large rural area around Stouffville. It had been held by Paul Calandra from 2008-11 elections until he lost in 2015 but he’s now the mpp provincially for the same riding. the cpc has a new candidate this election a rookie named Ben Smith.
23/08/21 Drew613
Without a Philpott independent this time around, that didn't make it close, I don't think this is TCTC. A new Mainstreet GTA regional poll came out today with the Liberals holding a commanding lead of 14 points and regionally at 49% support in York Region. I think this is a Liberal hold with a bit bigger margin of victory vs 2019. https://www.cp24.com/news/liberals-have-double-digit-lead-in-gta-as-campaign-enters-second-week-new-poll-suggests-1.5558077
04/08/21 A.S.
Sans Jane Philpott, it's a likely snooze of a riding--and '19 proved my argument that apparent splits in the left don't always allow the right up the middle; in fact, Philpott's base turned out to be resolutely Red Tory, and the polls she won were ensconced within the old-stock gentility of Stouffville and Ballantrae (and even within Markham, her better performances were mainly in Old Markham). And somehow, it doesn't feel as if that ‘Philpott Tory’ vote is going to migrate back to the Cons so easily or efficiently--notwithstanding CPC's own present old-stock-Ontarian leadership (whose constituency actually used to border onto this one).
31/07/21 Dr Bear
If the Liberals could hold this seat in a not-so-fantastic year, with Jane Philpott garnering 21% of the vote as an independent, then they will win handily this time around.

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