Baig, Uzair
	De Vries, René
	Jaczek, Helena
	Sahi, Muhammad Ahsin
	Smith, Ben
Incumbent:
	Helena Jaczek

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			126064 109780 41171 40298 282.59 km² 446.10/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Helena Jaczek	25055	38.90%
	Theodore Antony	19703	30.60%
	Jane Philpott **	13340	20.70%
	Hal Berman	4132	6.40%
	Roy Long	1621	2.50%
	Jeremy Lin	537	0.80%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Jane Philpott	29416	49.20%
	Paul Calandra **	25565	42.80%
	Gregory Hines	3647	6.10%
	Myles O'Brien	1145	1.90%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		23820	50.48%
		8011	16.98%
		13661	28.95%
		1285	2.72%
Other		406	0.86%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Oak Ridges-Markham    (90.7% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Markham-Unionville    (9.3% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Paul Calandra	25912	48.12%
	Helena Jaczek *	14007	26.01%
	Kingsley Kwok	10997	20.42%
	Jose Etcheverry	2153	4%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		20701	48.47%
		14559	34.09%
		5176	12.12%
		1561	3.66%
Other		712	1.67%

	19/09/21	Dr Bear 45.72.229.17
This is far more likely to go Liberal than, say, King-Vaughan (which I say will go Conservative).
	18/09/21	KXS 99.247.130.189
Solid Liberal. Helena Jaczek is not losing to a 21 year old when the Liberals are polling well in the GTA. Expect her to win this by 10 points or higher.
	03/09/21	CanPoliOracle 165.225.209.68
This is a changed race from 2019 without strong independent candidate and former Liberal cabinet minister Jane Philpott in the mix. It should be incumbent MP Helena Jaczek's race to lose. She is up against 21 year old greenhorn Ben Smith for the Conservatives who was a 2018 third place finisher in Markham for York Catholic District School Board Trustee (Area 2 - Wards 4,5,7 & 8). Mr. Smith seems to be the darling of local conservative stuffed-shirts, as the nomination race against 2019 candidate Theodore Antony was highly protracted seemingly to bolster Smith's chances of signing up more supporters. The NDP & Greens are running relatively unknown candidates, with the NDP putting up an out-of-area Brampton resident. The NDP is very weak in the riding, during the 2019 race their candidate did not put up a single sign nor campaigned. This should help the Liberals to consolidate the left-leaning vote. The PPC has failed 2014 municipal candidate René De Vries on the ballot to carry the torch of the far-right, anti-vaccination crowd; he was barred from running municipally after failing to file his financials on time. All things being equal, and whether you like her or the Liberals or not, Jaczek is the most competent & qualified person in the race given her experience as a doctor, MPP, provincial cabinet minister and now MP. She should win.
	02/09/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
Very different race here than 2019 when Philpot ran as an independent . true Helena Jaczek is a well known mp and had also been mpp for same riding. But lets not forget why she decided to run federally it was cause she lost the same riding provincially when the tide turned against the provincial liberals. this riding may lean liberal but still a suburban swing riding with a large rural area around Stouffville. It had been held by Paul Calandra from 2008-11 elections until he lost in 2015 but he’s now the mpp provincially for the same riding. the cpc has a new candidate this election a rookie named Ben Smith.
	23/08/21	Drew613 198.103.96.11
Without a Philpott independent this time around, that didn't make it close, I don't think this is TCTC. A new Mainstreet GTA regional poll came out today with the Liberals holding a commanding lead of 14 points and regionally at 49% support in York Region. I think this is a Liberal hold with a bit bigger margin of victory vs 2019. https://www.cp24.com/news/liberals-have-double-digit-lead-in-gta-as-campaign-enters-second-week-new-poll-suggests-1.5558077
	04/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
Sans Jane Philpott, it's a likely snooze of a riding--and '19 proved my argument that apparent splits in the left don't always allow the right up the middle; in fact, Philpott's base turned out to be resolutely Red Tory, and the polls she won were ensconced within the old-stock gentility of Stouffville and Ballantrae (and even within Markham, her better performances were mainly in Old Markham). And somehow, it doesn't feel as if that ‘Philpott Tory’ vote is going to migrate back to the Cons so easily or efficiently--notwithstanding CPC's own present old-stock-Ontarian leadership (whose constituency actually used to border onto this one).
	31/07/21	Dr Bear 69.157.246.57
If the Liberals could hold this seat in a not-so-fantastic year, with Jane Philpott garnering 21% of the vote as an independent, then they will win handily this time around.