|The Liberals have a massive advantage in this riding in terms of polling and incumbency. David McGuinty is a popular MP with strong ties in the community and name recognition. The challengers are largely unknown. Polling puts the LPC up in a double digit advantage over the 2nd place CPC. This riding will go Liberal.|
|The McGuinty name is synonymous with Public Service. David McGuinty has consistently polled ahead of his party in past elections. Expect the same on September 20th. The conservative candidate had the worse showing of any previous tory party standard bearer in the ridings history in 2019. The fact that he does not even live in the riding is likely a contributing factor. Even if Conservatives form a majority government David wins.|
|Is a long time liberal riding and David Mcguinty has been mp since 2004. Even with some voters annoyed over the early election call and reasonably good cpc candidate Eli Tannis who also ran here in 2019 and got close to 25% of the vote, its still likely to stay liberal at this point.|
|A super-safe Liberal riding, Ottawa South has been Liberal since its inception in 1988, including in the 2011 debacle. Not only that, but this was one of two ridings in the province (the other being Ottawa-Vanier) where the OLP won by more than 10 points in the 2018 provincial election.|
|The McGuinty family is an institution in south Ottawa and David has this seat as long as he wants it. The Conservatives frequently put up strong candidates (both federally and provincially) only to come up far short, while the NDP are not a real factor here either. That combination means the Liberals will win again, likely with an increased margin.|
There is also a large Islamic-Canadian population here that remains very skeptical of the Conservatives, plus there are many government employees that live in Ottawa South. That combination should ensure that it remains one of the safest Liberal seats in the country. It remained Liberal even in 2011 federally and 2018 provincially, one of only a small handful of ridings to do so.
|What *could* be worth monitoring here is the opposition--I already semi-whimsically speculated on a provincially-inspired NDP-ahead-of-CPC scenario in '19; the actual gap btw/ the two that year, and the subsequently trajectories of the respective parties, suggest that such semi-whimsy might be inching closer to reality than it looks...|