Hall, Chylow
	McGuinty, David
	Mukbil, Huda
	Schram, Les
	Tannis, Eli
	Wasslen, Larry
Incumbent:
	David McGuinty

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			121058 121894 51384 48416 72.88 km² 1661.00/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	David McGuinty **	34205	52.30%
	Eli Tannis	16025	24.50%
	Morgan Gay	10457	16.00%
	Les Schram	3645	5.60%
	Rodrigo André Bolaños	717	1.10%
	Ahmed Bouragba	141	0.20%
	Larry Wasslen	99	0.20%
	Sarmad Laith	87	0.10%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	David McGuinty **	38831	60.10%
	Dev Balkissoon	15711	24.30%
	George Brown	7480	11.60%
	John Redins	1888	2.90%
	Al Gullon	366	0.60%
	Damien Wilson	237	0.40%
	Larry Wasslen	136	0.20%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		19625	33.28%
		10710	18.16%
		25954	44.01%
		1787	3.03%
Other		895	1.52%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Ottawa South    (100% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	John Fraser *	20773	39.63%
	Karin Howard	15319	29.23%
	Eleanor Fast	14250	27.19%
	Les Schram	1618	3.09%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		23708	49.96%
		15235	32.11%
		5817	12.26%
		2034	4.29%
Other		656	1.38%

	03/09/21	Matt B. 174.112.6.162
The Liberals have a massive advantage in this riding in terms of polling and incumbency. David McGuinty is a popular MP with strong ties in the community and name recognition. The challengers are largely unknown. Polling puts the LPC up in a double digit advantage over the 2nd place CPC. This riding will go Liberal.
	02/09/21	jb 174.115.230.98
The McGuinty name is synonymous with Public Service. David McGuinty has consistently polled ahead of his party in past elections. Expect the same on September 20th. The conservative candidate had the worse showing of any previous tory party standard bearer in the ridings history in 2019. The fact that he does not even live in the riding is likely a contributing factor. Even if Conservatives form a majority government David wins.
	26/08/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
Is a long time liberal riding and David Mcguinty has been mp since 2004. Even with some voters annoyed over the early election call and reasonably good cpc candidate Eli Tannis who also ran here in 2019 and got close to 25% of the vote, its still likely to stay liberal at this point.
	28/05/21	MF 65.92.13.223
A super-safe Liberal riding, Ottawa South has been Liberal since its inception in 1988, including in the 2011 debacle. Not only that, but this was one of two ridings in the province (the other being Ottawa-Vanier) where the OLP won by more than 10 points in the 2018 provincial election.
	21/05/21	Craig 24.233.238.158
The McGuinty family is an institution in south Ottawa and David has this seat as long as he wants it. The Conservatives frequently put up strong candidates (both federally and provincially) only to come up far short, while the NDP are not a real factor here either. That combination means the Liberals will win again, likely with an increased margin. There is also a large Islamic-Canadian population here that remains very skeptical of the Conservatives, plus there are many government employees that live in Ottawa South. That combination should ensure that it remains one of the safest Liberal seats in the country. It remained Liberal even in 2011 federally and 2018 provincially, one of only a small handful of ridings to do so.
	08/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
What *could* be worth monitoring here is the opposition--I already semi-whimsically speculated on a provincially-inspired NDP-ahead-of-CPC scenario in '19; the actual gap btw/ the two that year, and the subsequently trajectories of the respective parties, suggest that such semi-whimsy might be inching closer to reality than it looks...