|Let's not bother about bellwether status of the ridings as it can change any time. Let's not bother either about the Ontario or national polling to an extent that it blinds us to regionally specific trends. Southwestern Ontario and certainly the whole Niagara area have seen a sharp rise in anti-Liberal trend so that 'all but Liberal' is more than a theoretical concept. The hidden vote is likelier to be Conservative than Liberal in this area (not to mention a degree of left repression re. politically incorrect speech), Libs consolidate their electoral hold in Toronto area by the end of the campaign, certainly not in Southwestern Ontario (selected pro-Lib ridings with large Universities excluding like Waterloo, Guelph, London North Centre - Brock University in the area has never been such a strong magnet for the left). NDP will take some Lib votes here, while PPC vote that in any case has seemingly hit its ceiling, will partly go for CPC on election day on the 'most acceptable bad party' basis repeating the likely later patterns of provincial election (nowhere to go but to Premier Ford whatever his bad vaccine mandates are). If this happens as I expect, St.C will be a CPC pick-up with its good team player candidate.|
|After listening to the CKTB debate, if this riding came down to who the local candidate was, Bittle would beat Waler as he is a much stronger candidate.|
However, this riding almost always goes to whatever party wins government (have to go back to 1980 for the last time that didn't happen).
If the election was last week, the Conservatives would likely have won here. But with O'Toole's numbers dropping and the Liberals gaining back some momentum, Bittle should be able to hold this riding.
|Just noticed there was a mainstreet poll for this riding , shows closer numbers than past election. 36 % Krystina Waler conservative , 32 % Chris Bittle liberal mp , 22 % Trecia Mclennon ndp , with a very small amount for greens and ppc. |
|Mainstreet riding poll has a small conservative lead here|
|Rematch of 2019 with incumbent Chris Bittle facing conservative candidate Krystina Waler. But with a new ndp candidate Trecia Mclennon. This riding had been conservative from 2006-11 elections when Rick Dykstra mp. provincially it went ndp in 2018 after having been liberal for a very long time. A riding we haven’t heard much about so far but likely important one for both main parties.|
||Rt. Hon. Adult|
|If cost of living becomes the ballot question, expect a riding like St. Kits to swing to the Conservatives who have demonstrated that they came to play this round (as has the NDP).|
|Let's not get carried away with the bellwether judgment here: provincially it's been anything but, repeatedly electing the Libs' Jim Bradley regardless of outside patterns and then replacing him by...the NDP. And using that provincial barometer, we could even see the NDP threaten to displace CPC as the main opposition force within St. Kitts.|
|Second-best bellwether in Ontario after Peterborough.|
|While I would like to say Liberal at this point of time, the fact is that this is one riding that can't be predicted until very late in the campaign. For the past 4 decades, this riding has elected a member from the winning party. Don't think anything will change this time|