Election Prediction Project

Toronto Centre
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-08 22:21:13

Constituency Profile


Chang, Brian

Ien, Marci

Paul, Annamie


Marci Ien

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



5.84 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Bill Morneau ** 3127157.40%
Brian Chang 1214222.30%
Ryan Lester 661312.10%
Annamie Paul 38527.10%
Rob Lewin 1820.30%
Sean Carson 1470.30%
Jason Tavares 1260.20%
Bronwyn Cragg 1250.20%
Philip Fernandez 540.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Bill Morneau 2929757.90%
Linda McQuaig 1346726.60%
Julian Di Battista 616712.20%
Colin Biggin 13152.60%
Jordan Stone 1470.30%
Mariam Ahmad 1330.30%
Philip Fernandez 760.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 4861.30%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Toronto Centre
   (99.86% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.14% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Suze Morrison 2368853.66%
David Morris 1198627.15%
Meredith Cartwright 623414.12%
Adam Sommerfeld 13773.12%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 10653.11%

02/06/21 Libby Burgundy
Annamie Paul certainly has her work cut out for her. Assuming the Liberals stay strong in downtown Toronto, she's going to have to assemble one motley coalition in order to close that final 10% gap. Is it possible for an NDP led by Jagmeet Singh to poll below 15% in Toronto Centre in a general election? Is it possible for Paul to cleave away a third of the Conservative support? If you think she wins, you need both of those stars to align, and that's feeling like a tall order.
A modest collapse in Liberal support, especially if this collapse is motivated specifically by exhaustion or frustration with Justin Trudeau, would change the dynamic of this race dramatically. But until we see it, the rules of conventional politics must prevail: byelections are byelections, and things tend to revert to the mean in the next general. With that in mind, it's Liberal for now.
29/05/21 KXS
Liberals should be able to hold on to this easily. There are enough habitual Liberal supporters in the riding.
Annamie Paul's strong performance in the by-election is not going to necessarily translate into general election support.
06/05/21 Chris N
All eyes are on this riding in the next general. Annamie Paul plans on running in this riding again after placing a very strong second place in the recent by-election. Similar to Ontario Green Party’s leader Mike Schreiner’s campaign in Guelph in 2018, expect the GPC to pool significant resources in this riding, including reaching out to GPC volunteers from other GTA ridings to travel to Toronto Centre to knock on doors to get their leader elected. The biggest challenge facing the GPC is the historical Liberal grip on Toronto Centre. With the exception of the Wynne Ontario Liberal collapse in 2018, Toronto Centre has always been a reliable Liberal riding. This will be a very exciting race.

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