Election Prediction Project

Windsor West
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-07-26 14:08:00

Constituency Profile



Brian Masse

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



77.78 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Brian Masse ** 2080040.00%
Sandra Pupatello 1887836.30%
Henry Lau 992519.10%
Quinn Hunt 13252.50%
Darryl Burrell 9581.80%
Margaret Villamizar 760.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Brian Masse ** 2408551.30%
Dave Sundin 1184225.20%
Henry Lau 973420.80%
Cora LaRussa 10832.30%
Margaret Villamizar 1610.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1530.38%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Windsor West
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Lisa Gretzky * 2027652.12%
Adam Ibrahim 1107328.47%
Rino Bortolin 572214.71%
Krysta Glovasky-Ridsdale 13933.58%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 8912.45%

30/07/20 Cory
This might be one of the more hotly-contested ridings in Southern Ontario, with Pupatello announcing she would be running again.
In this re-match, I think the Liberals will squeak out a win here. Having a Liberal incumbent in the neighboring riding will help this time out.
30/07/20 Mr. Dude
I don't quite understand making predictions based on 338 as it's an aggregator that isn't specific to the local candidates.
Let's face it, Irek delivered funds next door big time and that's been made quite visibly. You can still have a left-wing representative, but who will undoubtedly become a cabinet minister and who will bring home the money in Sandra.
This riding is one of the tougher ones economically and the investments made will be more meaningfully felt here versus the suburbs.
Masse is well liked but clearly isn't adding the kind of value that Sandra could. I'll give Masse credit for recognizing that the Single Sports Betting bill needed to have tri-partisan support and he found it. But a representative in government wouldn't have had that hurdle.
26/07/20 ME
Masse has a 19 point lead according to local polls and 338 has declared the riding a safe NDP seat
26/07/20 Jeremus von Stroheim
Seems Brian Masse can't catch a break here. With Pupatello running again it will likely be very close, but I think Masse will still hold on like in 2019.
24/07/20 Chris N
Former Ontario cabinet minister Sandra Pupatello is running again for the Liberals, as per the Windsor Star. The 2019 race was very high profile, with many predicting that Pupatello would end Masse’s two decade reign in Windsor West. I think Masse and the NDP have the advantage for round two, but expect the Liberals to throw a lot of resources into the riding to try and flip it.
06/06/21 Chris N
Many predicted the Liberals to win this in 2019 after they nominated high profile candidate and former Ontario cabinet minister Sandra Pupatello. Masse was able to hold on, likely due more to his local popularity than the party's popularity. Unless the Liberals nominate Pupatello or another high profile candidate, I think Windsor West will stay safely orange.
26/05/21 ME
Local polls give Brian Masse a 10 point lead and 338 says it is LIKELY NDP

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