Dwellings occupied by usual residents:
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
|Georgina Jolibois **
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
|Rob Clarke **
2011 Results (redistributed)
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
(99.99% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
(0.01% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
|I don't feel informed enough to make a pick between the NDP and Liberals, but I'm leaning against a conservative win. I just scanned through poll-by-poll data, and it's interesting how tri-polar this riding is. Aside from the occasional NDP-Liberal split town centre or the occasional big poll that includes both indigenous people and farmers, a majority of these polls are won in resounding fashion - i.e. 60-80% victories are extremely common. The reason I bring this up is that the rural farming parts of this riding are essentially identical to neighboring ridings like Carlton Trail-Eagle Creek where the only NDP and Liberal votes last election came from people so stubborn they'll never flip, and the Conservatives will see significant loss to the PPC. The NDP and Liberal dominated polls are all in indigenous communities, and votes in places like that are built on trust, trust which the PPC will not have. The overall swings in Saskatchewan make this a dead heat after last election, and the probable PPC overperformance specifically among Conservative voters will make it hard for the Cons to hold on.|
|I'm not sure why this is listed as TCTC right now, unless it's because of the raised numbers for the PPC in the riding and regionally.|
The PPC is definitely up, and will improve on their 2019 vote drastically across the country, but will still be a distant ‘also ran’ on election day.
PPC supporters are more vocal and more likely to display signs, so by that metric their support is inflated. Voters here (and across the prairies) tend to be right of center but more importantly are very anti-Trudeau, and come election day if the outcome here is within a country mile of the realm of the possibility of a Liberal win, PPC voters will cast their ballots for the Cons rather than allow that possibility.
I don't see how the Cons lose this seat, barring an actual huge migration of their support to the PPC (don't see this happening) combined with the left's vote throwing all their support to the Libs (could easily happen).
|It's worth noting that the Conservative support here is very rural, and therefore I would imagine very PPC-vulnerable, and given the level of the conservative implosion to the PPC in the Prairies, I think that's bad news for them. All that said, the Liberals have done well with star indigenous candidates, so Belanger winning here is a credible possibility, despite the NDP support perhaps being more robust, as tends to be the case in ridings dominated by indigenous communities. Regardless, this is a 3-way race, and the PPC surge should make a non-Conservative win possible even if the left-ish parties are split down the middle.|
|Probably one the few interesting riding in western Canada as it has changed hands between the three major parties over the last 15 years. This one is truly too close to call|
|Gary Vidal was first elected in 2019 and had previously been mayor of Meadow Lake one of the largest towns in the riding. This riding does have a history of being a swing riding and also a pattern of ndp/liberal candidates switching parties. Buckley Belanger is not the first ndp mla to run for the liberals in this riding. Just don’t see the liberals gaining any seats in Saskatchewan as things stand now. The ndp are also competitive in this riding but mostly been a conservative riding in recent elections.|
|It's bold to be calling it for the Liberals so early on - and I get that Buckley Belanger is the sort of name who could drive turnout in the north, but it's only turnout within his particular patch. Arguably in a riding that has had close three way races any small difference is worth it, but with the CPC winning by 14 points, the south of the riding, where Belanger is not the well-known name that MLAs are often assumed to be could hand it back to Gary Vidal. Don't forget that last time all three major candidates were still pretty well-known or of high quality - yes, none of them were the Dean of the Saskatchewan Legislature, but realistically, is it going to matter that much? TCTC for now but my money's on the CPC.|
|Buckley Belanger might be a star, but New Democrats jumping to the Libs have met with mixed success here--Rick Laliberte managed it a generation ago, but not Joan Beatty or Lawrence Joseph subsequently. Plus in a riding that CPC won by 14 points last time, there's no guarantee that the anti-Con vote *will* galvanize thusly. But it definitely does depend on turnout, particularly among FN--remember how in 2015, the total voting electorate increased by nearly 50% from 2011, which led to the split-in-the-left *not* reelecting the CPC incumbent, but relegating him to 3rd. (But a repeat split combined w/a turnout slide helped elect CPC in '19.)|
|Highly vulnerable seat which is likely leaning Liberal. With a Saskatchewan leader in a year they swept the province, the incumbent got just over 40% of the vote here. If the Liberal candidate can coalesce the vote around him he can take it. Only way the Tories will survive is with a strong NDP campaign in the 20%+ range - its possible, and as usual this will probably go down to the wire, but I would think the Tories are playing defence here this time.|
|With the decision by Mr. Belanger to seek the LPC nod, I think this seat is now a safe LPC seat.|
The north has always voted for the individual and not the party.
|This is a seat that doesn't vote for a party it tends to vote for the individual in fact all three parties have won this seat before. Buckley Belanger is a respected politician who has served for two decades and I'd have to believe he's going to take this seat.|
|Longtime NDP MLA Buckley Belanger of Athabasca is resigning to seek the Federal Liberal nomination:|
|The Liberals' record on First Nations issues is atrocious (remember ‘Thank you for your donation’?). The selection of Mary Simon as Governor-General will help them though. As is usually the case with this riding, it is a 3-way toss-up right to election day.|
|I think this is leaning Conservative, but a decent Maverick/PPC showing could split it and give it to the NDP or Liberals, depending who runs the better GOTV in the Indigenous communities.|