|What a difference a few days make. Since the dramatic and horrible news of Alberta hospitals nearing super crisis, the province has had to digest numerous scenarios, including the serious negligence by the province’s conservative leaders. Erin O’Toole is the first duck up to face this fury. I don’t think it’s crazy to say Calgary-Confederation could be one of the tidings where a certain result may get turned on its ear. Len Webber won this fairly handily in 2019, but modestly compared to others in the city (55% to 22% over the Liberal challenger). Expect some significant bleeding of con support, mostly to PPC’s Eddie Gao. But Grit Murray Sigler has a polished & well-rounded representation and should build on that 20+% base, possibly approaching the tally Matt Grant reached (43.5%, just 1,600 back) in 2015. No, there is no Trudeau-mania this time so it’s still likely that Webber holds on. Don’t be shocked however of Sigler, or even Gao turn this into a photo-finish.|
|Len Webber was first elected in 2015 in a close race for this downtown Calgary riding .although wasn’t close at all in 2019 when he got re elected. is an alberta riding in Calgary so likely to stay conservative .|
|Safe Conservative riding. This site has to get over the 2015 Trudeaumania results where the Liberals were competitive in the 6 Alberta ridings that are now designated TCTC. With the possible exception of Edmonton Center, and I doubt the Liberals win even win there, there is absolutely no hope for a Liberal to be elected elsewhere in Alberta. The Conservatives won here by 33% in 2019, and while their margin of victory might go down slightly (say about 5% or so), they are in no danger whatsoever of losing this riding.|
|It really isn't *that* much different from Calgary Centre, and a 40+ result in '15 somewhat negates the ‘seat the Libs never won before’ factor. However, I will acknowledge the ‘things not going as Justin might have hoped’ factor by momentarily handing this to CPC--otherwise, one thing that *could* tip it away in a way that '15 couldn't would be a perception that O'Toole himself is, as an Ontarian, too proximate to ‘Laurentian elite’ for comfort. (And that on top of anti-Kenney disgruntement et al.) Though Confederation's also historically ‘stronger’ for NDP than Centre, so there's an alternative...yet it doesn't seem like there's presently the infrastructure for that. So in '19, the Libs were reduced to a Kensingtonian rump; but who knows; we might now see a situation without precedent of a Calgary seat won with under 40% of the vote...|
|The Liberal halcyon days of framing this election around 'just how BIG will Trudeau's majority be?' evaporated as quickly as as it took to walk up the driveway of Rideau Hall. Seats like Calgary Confederation are now solidly out-of-play for the Liberals, having been fool's gold even in their majority romp of 2015. |
Further, the Nova Scotia provincial election results show us that the pandemic halo-effect governments have leaned on for re-election these past 12 months can quickly turn into a crown of thorns for youthful Liberal leaders who overhype their pandemic stewardship as reason alone for re-election. Kenney's beleaguered pandemic response in Alberta won't be the factor that some think it will be.
In the current national political climate, a Liberal win anywhere in Calgary is a non-starter, least of all in a seat they've never won before.
|While I highly doubt the Liberals will gain back any of their 2015 seats in the prairies, I am certain that they will not gain other seats they didn't win in 2015. I think it's unlikely the poor performance of the provincial government will have a huge affect on the federal election in Alberta, as Alberta typically follows a political ethos of anti-establishmentarianism/anti-Laurentian elite moreso than any resultant partisan implications. The CPC campaign machine is exceptionally well oiled in Alberta cities, and I project a relatively easy CPC hold.|
|With the CPC polling lower and backlash against the UCP at the provincial level, this one could become a tossup.|