Election Prediction Project

Calgary Shepard
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-11 22:48:09

Constituency Profile


Halmo, Jesse

Jessel, Raj

Kmiec, Tom

Lee, Andrea

Macdonald, Cam

Muirhead, Konstantine

Tanaka, Evelyn

Vaillant, Ron


Tom Kmiec

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



180.70 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Tom Kmiec ** 5861475.00%
Del Arnold 864411.10%
David Brian Smith 68288.70%
Evelyn Tanaka 23453.00%
Kyle Scott 17092.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Tom Kmiec 4370665.90%
Jerome James 1637924.70%
Dany Allard 45326.80%
Graham MacKenzie 17342.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2400.61%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Calgary Southeast
   (63.92% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Calgary East
   (35.61% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.47% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

02/09/21 R.O.
Tom Kmiec was first elected in 2015 and re elected in 2019 in this suburban calgary riding which has been a long time conservative riding so likely to stay cpc .
23/08/21 A.S.
This *territory's* been safe for decades; but only a fraction's been *suburbanized* for decades--still, it hasn't made a darned bit of difference. Calgary's only 3/4 CPC mandate; though it might be interesting to see Kenney backlash, etc, turn the Con ceiling into, who knows, something more like the Libs' '19 Scarborough-Rouge River ceiling. (Which'd still be a landslide over mice, particularly w/PPC and Maverick also in the mix.)
11/05/21 VotreChoix
Suburban Calgary seat which has been safe for the Conservatives for decades. Don't see that changing this election.

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