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Calgary Shepard
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2021-05-11 22:48:09
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Halmo, Jesse

Jessel, Raj

Kmiec, Tom

Lee, Andrea

Macdonald, Cam

Muirhead, Konstantine

Tanaka, Evelyn

Vaillant, Ron


Incumbent:

Tom Kmiec

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

147520
110364

54774
53324

180.70 km²
816.40/km²


2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Tom Kmiec ** 5861475.00%
Del Arnold 864411.10%
David Brian Smith 68288.70%
Evelyn Tanaka 23453.00%
Kyle Scott 17092.20%


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Tom Kmiec 4370665.90%
Jerome James 1637924.70%
Dany Allard 45326.80%
Graham MacKenzie 17342.60%


2011 Results (redistributed)

2990575.51%
440711.13%
28467.19%
22025.56%
Other 2400.61%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Calgary Southeast
   (63.92% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Calgary East
   (35.61% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Crowfoot
   (0.47% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


02/09/21 R.O.
24.146.13.237
Tom Kmiec was first elected in 2015 and re elected in 2019 in this suburban calgary riding which has been a long time conservative riding so likely to stay cpc .
23/08/21 A.S.
99.225.52.35
This *territory's* been safe for decades; but only a fraction's been *suburbanized* for decades--still, it hasn't made a darned bit of difference. Calgary's only 3/4 CPC mandate; though it might be interesting to see Kenney backlash, etc, turn the Con ceiling into, who knows, something more like the Libs' '19 Scarborough-Rouge River ceiling. (Which'd still be a landslide over mice, particularly w/PPC and Maverick also in the mix.)
11/05/21 VotreChoix
149.202.238.204
Suburban Calgary seat which has been safe for the Conservatives for decades. Don't see that changing this election.



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