Election Prediction Project

Burnaby South
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-24 14:15:06

Constituency Profile


Curran, Maureen

Kendell, Martin

Lavji, Likky

Sami, Brea Huang

Singh, Jagmeet

Williams, Marcella


Jagmeet Singh

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



46.08 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Jagmeet Singh ** 1695637.70%
Jay Shin 1391430.90%
Neelam Brar 1070623.80%
Brennan Wauters 24775.50%
Al Rawdah 6451.40%
Rex Brocki 2460.50%
Brian Sproule 620.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Kennedy Stewart ** 1609435.10%
Adam Pankratz 1554733.90%
Grace Seear 1244127.10%
Wyatt Tessari 13062.80%
Liz Jaluague 4991.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3861.06%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Burnaby-New Westminster
   (54.52% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (45.48% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

26/08/21 Nick M.
With the LPC underperforming provincially and federally, it is safe to say NDP hold.
25/08/21 A.S.
As a reflection of the apparent early Dead Party Walking status of the NDP in '19, I was allowing for a ‘Tommying’ (or, if you want, a ‘Kimming’) of Jagmeet--the fact that he won with an even lower share than in the byelection vindicated my circumspection. I would have prepared for the same this year; but so far have been given no real reason to. Still, that SinoCon in Metrotown and elsewhere is to be monitored--there's a reason why this is no Peter Julian-style New Westminster. But for the long term. Not for now, while Jagmeet's walking on air.
16/08/21 Stevo
With Singh looking very strong in the polls and likely to continue on that trajectory (he's not exactly a gaffe-machine, and is now an experienced campaigner), I think 50%+ in his home riding is doable.
13/08/21 R.O.
Just don’t see Jagmeet Singh not holding his own riding as party leader . despite the fact it was still relatively close last time but doesn’t appear Jay Shin is back as the cpc candidate this year.
Ok, theoretically this should be a no brainer for the NDP, but, both the 2019 by election and general election were closer then they should have been. I'm still giving to the NDP, but still...

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