Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-08-06 01:13:09

Constituency Profile


Anderson, Rob

Frost, Laura Anne

Garrison, Randall

Gordon, Harley

Kobayashi, Doug

Strandlund, Tyson Riel


Randall Garrison

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



328.79 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Randall Garrison ** 2388734.10%
David Merner 1850626.40%
Randall Pewarchuk 1340919.10%
Jamie Hammond 1255417.90%
Jeremy Gustafson 10891.60%
Josh Steffler 2870.40%
Tyson Strandlund 1110.20%
Louis Lesosky 1000.10%
Fidelia Godron 990.10%
Philip Ney 830.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Randall Garrison ** 2383635.00%
David Merner 1862227.40%
Frances Litman 1357519.90%
Shari Lukens 1191217.50%
Tyson Strandlund 1360.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2420.43%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
   (88.97% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Saanich-Gulf Islands
   (11.03% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

09/09/21 R.O.
Randall Garrison was first elected in 2011 and re elected in every election since. The greens posted a strong result here in 2019 but unless there doing a lot better locally than nationally it be an ndp hold this year.
25/08/21 A.S.
It's like C-M-L: given Garrison's low winning share, this *shouldn't* be so firm an NDP prediction...except for the fact that his primary '19 opposition was the Greens, and no other party hit 20%. Then again, the fact that it was the *David Merner* Greens bodes well for that vote sliding into the ‘Kobayashi Liberal’ camp...winningly so is another matter, as Merner's original Liberal failure in '15 demonstrated.
04/08/21 LeftCoast
Popular NDP incumbent Randall Garrison is running again. Garrison even enjoys, unsually for a NDPer, some crossover support from conservative voters, who like his stance on foreign policy and advocacy for veterans (which matters a great deal in a riding with a decent-sized military population like this one). Despite some fears of losing to the Greens in 2019, he was comfortably re-elected.
The Greens have, like Victoria, nominated a weak candidate with poor name recognition. The Liberals, on the other hand, have selected Colwood City Councillor Doug Kobayashi, who is well known on the West Shore, particularly in the business and sports communities. Unfortunately for them, his candidacy will not be enough to dampen Garrison's large margins of victory in the Saanich and Esquimalt part of the riding. Easy NDP win.
28/07/21 Dr Bear
Victoria is listed for the NDP but somehow this riding is listed TCTC…did I miss some there here?
NDP holding their ground in their traditional strongholds and the Greens (the likely challengers here) are currently looking to get a whopping one seat. As of now, this seat is reasonably safe for the NDP.
26/07/21 Thomas K
If the Greens couldn't really come close here in 2019, there's absolutely no way they're going to win this in 2021 as their party crumbles in the polls. Safe NDP.
28/06/21 Lolitha
Last election this was seen as a prime target for the Greens, but they came short by a significant margin. Right now the NDP are doing well in polls, the Greens are having internal disputes and meh polling, NDP should hold.
14/06/21 m
Local polls show the NDP with a 18 point lead ...and 338 says it is a likely NDP seat
30/05/21 J.F. Breton
En effet, de bonnes chances que le NPD l'emporte. Ceci dit, avant de me prononcer, plusieurs facteurs seront à prendre en compte: 1) l'importance des enjeux locaux; 2) le candidat vert à venir; 3) les ressources que le PVC mettra ici; 4) la performance d'Anamie Paul en campagne, notamment lors des débats. TCTC
07/05/21 Chris N
Many observers had the Greens winning this riding in 2019. Garrison held it by about 8%. I anticipate he will hang on this time too.
06/08/21 J.F. Breton
Comme je le mentionnais en mai dernier, le NPD avait de très bonnes chances de l'emporter. Depuis, les Verts ont massacré toutes les conditions que j'énumérais pour espérer lutter efficacement ici. Victoire du NPD.

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