Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-08 22:21:59

Constituency Profile


Garrison, Randall


Randall Garrison

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



328.79 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Randall Garrison ** 2388734.10%
David Merner 1850626.40%
Randall Pewarchuk 1340919.10%
Jamie Hammond 1255417.90%
Jeremy Gustafson 10891.60%
Josh Steffler 2870.40%
Tyson Strandlund 1110.20%
Louis Lesosky 1000.10%
Fidelia Godron 990.10%
Philip Ney 830.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Randall Garrison ** 2383635.00%
David Merner 1862227.40%
Frances Litman 1357519.90%
Shari Lukens 1191217.50%
Tyson Strandlund 1360.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2420.43%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
   (88.97% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Saanich-Gulf Islands
   (11.03% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

28/07/20 Dr Bear
Victoria is listed for the NDP but somehow this riding is listed TCTC…did I miss some there here?
NDP holding their ground in their traditional strongholds and the Greens (the likely challengers here) are currently looking to get a whopping one seat. As of now, this seat is reasonably safe for the NDP.
26/07/20 Thomas K
If the Greens couldn't really come close here in 2019, there's absolutely no way they're going to win this in 2021 as their party crumbles in the polls. Safe NDP.
28/06/21 Lolitha
Last election this was seen as a prime target for the Greens, but they came short by a significant margin. Right now the NDP are doing well in polls, the Greens are having internal disputes and meh polling, NDP should hold.
14/06/21 m
Local polls show the NDP with a 18 point lead ...and 338 says it is a likely NDP seat
30/05/21 J.F. Breton
En effet, de bonnes chances que le NPD l'emporte. Ceci dit, avant de me prononcer, plusieurs facteurs seront à prendre en compte: 1) l'importance des enjeux locaux; 2) le candidat vert à venir; 3) les ressources que le PVC mettra ici; 4) la performance d'Anamie Paul en campagne, notamment lors des débats. TCTC
07/05/21 Chris N
Many observers had the Greens winning this riding in 2019. Garrison held it by about 8%. I anticipate he will hang on this time too.

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