|Randall Garrison was first elected in 2011 and re elected in every election since. The greens posted a strong result here in 2019 but unless there doing a lot better locally than nationally it be an ndp hold this year.|
|It's like C-M-L: given Garrison's low winning share, this *shouldn't* be so firm an NDP prediction...except for the fact that his primary '19 opposition was the Greens, and no other party hit 20%. Then again, the fact that it was the *David Merner* Greens bodes well for that vote sliding into the ‘Kobayashi Liberal’ camp...winningly so is another matter, as Merner's original Liberal failure in '15 demonstrated.|
|Popular NDP incumbent Randall Garrison is running again. Garrison even enjoys, unsually for a NDPer, some crossover support from conservative voters, who like his stance on foreign policy and advocacy for veterans (which matters a great deal in a riding with a decent-sized military population like this one). Despite some fears of losing to the Greens in 2019, he was comfortably re-elected. |
The Greens have, like Victoria, nominated a weak candidate with poor name recognition. The Liberals, on the other hand, have selected Colwood City Councillor Doug Kobayashi, who is well known on the West Shore, particularly in the business and sports communities. Unfortunately for them, his candidacy will not be enough to dampen Garrison's large margins of victory in the Saanich and Esquimalt part of the riding. Easy NDP win.
|Victoria is listed for the NDP but somehow this riding is listed TCTC…did I miss some there here?|
NDP holding their ground in their traditional strongholds and the Greens (the likely challengers here) are currently looking to get a whopping one seat. As of now, this seat is reasonably safe for the NDP.
|If the Greens couldn't really come close here in 2019, there's absolutely no way they're going to win this in 2021 as their party crumbles in the polls. Safe NDP.|
|Last election this was seen as a prime target for the Greens, but they came short by a significant margin. Right now the NDP are doing well in polls, the Greens are having internal disputes and meh polling, NDP should hold.|
|Local polls show the NDP with a 18 point lead ...and 338 says it is a likely NDP seat|
|En effet, de bonnes chances que le NPD l'emporte. Ceci dit, avant de me prononcer, plusieurs facteurs seront à prendre en compte: 1) l'importance des enjeux locaux; 2) le candidat vert à venir; 3) les ressources que le PVC mettra ici; 4) la performance d'Anamie Paul en campagne, notamment lors des débats. TCTC|
|Many observers had the Greens winning this riding in 2019. Garrison held it by about 8%. I anticipate he will hang on this time too.|
|Comme je le mentionnais en mai dernier, le NPD avait de très bonnes chances de l'emporter. Depuis, les Verts ont massacré toutes les conditions que j'énumérais pour espérer lutter efficacement ici. Victoire du NPD.|