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Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2021-05-08 22:21:59
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Garrison, Randall


Incumbent:

Randall Garrison

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

120834
112969

53281
50830

328.79 km²
367.50/km²


2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Randall Garrison ** 2388734.10%
David Merner 1850626.40%
Randall Pewarchuk 1340919.10%
Jamie Hammond 1255417.90%
Jeremy Gustafson 10891.60%
Josh Steffler 2870.40%
Tyson Strandlund 1110.20%
Louis Lesosky 1000.10%
Fidelia Godron 990.10%
Philip Ney 830.10%


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Randall Garrison ** 2383635.00%
David Merner 1862227.40%
Frances Litman 1357519.90%
Shari Lukens 1191217.50%
Tyson Strandlund 1360.20%


2011 Results (redistributed)

2130537.61%
2232539.41%
54949.70%
728612.86%
Other 2420.43%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
   (88.97% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Saanich-Gulf Islands
   (11.03% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


28/07/20 Dr Bear
157.52.19.10
Victoria is listed for the NDP but somehow this riding is listed TCTC…did I miss some there here?
NDP holding their ground in their traditional strongholds and the Greens (the likely challengers here) are currently looking to get a whopping one seat. As of now, this seat is reasonably safe for the NDP.
26/07/20 Thomas K
24.85.228.170
If the Greens couldn't really come close here in 2019, there's absolutely no way they're going to win this in 2021 as their party crumbles in the polls. Safe NDP.
28/06/21 Lolitha
161.184.30.62
Last election this was seen as a prime target for the Greens, but they came short by a significant margin. Right now the NDP are doing well in polls, the Greens are having internal disputes and meh polling, NDP should hold.
14/06/21 m
45.72.200.7
Local polls show the NDP with a 18 point lead ...and 338 says it is a likely NDP seat
30/05/21 J.F. Breton
38.23.227.9
En effet, de bonnes chances que le NPD l'emporte. Ceci dit, avant de me prononcer, plusieurs facteurs seront à prendre en compte: 1) l'importance des enjeux locaux; 2) le candidat vert à venir; 3) les ressources que le PVC mettra ici; 4) la performance d'Anamie Paul en campagne, notamment lors des débats. TCTC
07/05/21 Chris N
24.36.32.209
Many observers had the Greens winning this riding in 2019. Garrison held it by about 8%. I anticipate he will hang on this time too.



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