An ndp hold is likely unless the greens remain in much better shape locally than they are nationally but still likely to stay with the current mp .
|There are a ton of Green signs in Oak Bay and Ten Mile Point and not much else. Uplands usually has giant signs for the biggest parties, the Liberals and Conservatives, but this time only Greens.|
|It seems that people may have missed the fact that the Liberal candidate from 2015 withdrew her candidacy, albeit too late and thus remained on the ballot, which is why they did so poorly here back then. Maybe there is something special about Nikki MacDonald, but it's also entirely possible that the reason the Liberals went up by 10% in 2019 was because she just regained the votes Cheryl Thomas might have had had she not resigned. The Liberals did better than expected on the Island in 2015 largely due to Trudeau's popularity the Liberal candidate in Nanaimo-Ladysmith barely campaigned and managed to come in second in a four-way race, so it's entirely possible that Thomas resigning had a far bigger effect than anticipated. As for the Greens, they definitely have a solid base here, but both the provincial and federal Greens seem to have the unfortunate tendency to run low-profile candidates (barring Andrew Weaver and perhaps Jo-Ann Roberts) in Victoria. If the Greens ran a higher-profile candidate like a popular city councillor or even Andrew Weaver, I'd put them in the running even during their current rut, but that's apparently not the case this time. Whether or not the Greens bleed a lot of votes over the Annamie Paul debacle or if they largely stay put due to Elizabeth May's local beachhead here, I don't know, but if it's the former case, more of those votes will go to the NDP incumbent, not the Liberal. This is Victoria we're talking about, remember?|
|While Lib share gains in '19 were impressive, I'd advise caution in drawing Lib-gain conclusions for Victoria--not just because one-size-fits-all projection methodology is crude, as is the ‘established pattern’ argument about federal vs provincial NDP strength in BC; but also because it presupposes that the last 15 years of NDP representation in Victoria was nothing more than a happenstance vote-park due to the fact that Lib support was in the tank or else split by the Greens. Or for that matter, some implied notion that it was nothing more than a pipeline decision that stood in the way of a Victoria Liberal gain in '19. Plus, it's no longer looking so clear that the Libs will outperform '19 in BC. Yeah, I can understand--were BC like Ontario, Victoria *could* be a Guelph/Kingston type of place. But an 11-point gap remains a pretty big one for simple Green attrition (not *elimination*, but *attrition*) to fill, even accounting for the possibility that '19 was artificially low for the Libs because few gave them the benefit of the doubt vs a perceived primary NDP/Green race. Still, I *could* give a second Nikki Macdonald go the benefit of the doubt--maybe as a Left Coast version of Sandra Pupatello bidding to restore Windsor West to its ‘proper’ Herb Gray-era Lib-default state. But for such an upset to really come off, you'd really need 1974-style Lib vs NDP dynamics, i.e. something bigger, broader, and not just BC-based...|
|I live in this riding and I really don't think it is safe for the NDP. In fact, if this election were held today, I think the Liberals would take it. |
In 2019, the LPC/NDP/Green vote split in BC was 26.2/24.4/12.5. Ipsos, Ekos, Leger and Mainstreet have all released writ period polls. Their splits are: Ipsos: 37/20/10; Ekos: 26/22/9; Leger: 38/22/8; Mainstreet: 28/19/8. I grant that the sample sizes for the province are small, but all have LPC at or above 2019 levels and all have NDP below. The average of the polls is 32.3/20.8/8.8. The average change from 2019 is +6.1/-3.6/-3.8. Though the NDP seems to be doing better nationally than in 2019 and people might assume this would apply to BC where there is a reasonably popular NDP government, there is an established pattern of the NDP doing worse federally in BC when they are in power provincially. The evidence so far just doesnâ€™t point to the federal NDP doing well in BC.
In 2019, the media framed this seat as a likely Green gain, but the NDP took it on a late surge in support. The final result was NDP/GPC/LPC: 33.2/29.9/22.3. If you apply the provincial swing equally to every district, you'd get NDP/LPC/GPC 29.6/28.4/26.2 in Victoria. However, the collapsed Green vote was far more concentrated in Victoria. The Greens will likely be much lower, with the Liberals being the main beneficiaries. As the split shows, the winner may only need 30% or 31% to win here.
When Abacus asked each party's voters their top 3 issues, they found that the top issue for LPC voters is climate (57%) with cost of living as a close second (55%). For NDP voters, it is cost of living (67%), with climate as the second (54%). In 2019, the purchase of a pipeline by the federal government doomed the LPC in this riding. The pipeline doesn't seem to be happening. This just isn't an issue where the NDP has an advantage anymore.
This is probably TCTC because a lot can change between now and September 20, but I wouldnâ€™t call this likely NDP.
|Likely an NDP hold but if the Green vote shifts to the Liberals - a likely scenario - we have a Liberal/NDP race here.|
|Laurel Collins is now a reasonably popular incumbent in a reasonably NDP-leaning seat. The Greens are melting nationally due to infighting, and have picked a surprisingly weak candidate. With the Liberals heavily targeting this seat, the Greens will fall to third. |
The question is, where does their vote go? Two scenarios:
1) Wealthy, well-educated, and anti-NDP Green voters living in Oak Bay, Cadboro Bay, and Gonzales go in droves to the Liberals, pushing them into contention.
2) Green voters spread across the riding who are nauseated by the provincial NDP's not so green policies, but are also unwilling to go Liberal, simply stay home, letting the NDP win the seat by a safe margin.
My money is on Scenario #2. Either way, the NDP is likely to win.
|The NDP flirted with disaster here last time, but they seem to have rebounded somewhat while the Green Party has gone into total disarray. NDP should hold this fine and more likely than not should be able to restore a solid lead.|
As for the Liberals, or, perish the thought, Conservatives, this is the City that elects and re-elects the likes of Lisa Helps, who for all her woke leanings is actually on the right-wing of City Council compared to comrade Ben Isitt.
Charming little town to visit but politically, Victoria is nuts! Anyone with the slightest common sense here must feel like they're living in a lunatic asylum.
|I think the NDP will hold on to this seat. The Greens tried hard in 2019 to flip it and still fell short. The only way I could see it going Green is if the Green Party leader decided to run here but,she has her heart set on Toronto Centre.|