British Columbia Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Powell River-Sunshine Coast

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:
Candidates:
Green Party
CARR, Adriane Janice
Marijuana Party
LARSEN, Dana Albert
Liberal Party
LONG, Harold
New Democratic Party
WILSON, Gordon
Incumbent:
  Powell River-Sunshine Coast
Gordon Wilson

Previous Result (redistribution):
337317.47%
519426.90%
5803.00%
PDA
967650.10%
4362.26%
Previous Result (old ridings):
Powell River-Sunshine Coast
391117.71%
608827.57%
6773.07%
PDA
1083349.05%
Census 1996:
Population:44900
Dev. from Quota:-4.76%
Area (km2):41619
Pop Density:1.08

Surrounding Ridings:
Cariboo South
North Coast
West Vancouver-Garibaldi
Yale-Lillooet

Submissions
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17/02/01 Interested Voter Email:
Probably the only true safe seat, not for the party he represents, but for Gordon Wilson. For some reason, the people of Powell River like him. Bewildering to the rest of the outside world, but a safe bet. He could be one of/the only member the opposition after election day.
20/02/01 Bernard Schulmann Email: bernard.schulmann@lillone.org
If Gordon Wilson runs, he should win, he will then be part of a 2 person caucus again.
23/02/01 DMB Email:dennisbaher@netscape.net
I will give this one to Gordo - it will be fun to see him perform in the house with a very small caucus - however what impact will the Green Party and Adrienne Carr who I beleive is running in this riding have on the outcome - will she take enough votes from Gordon to allow Liberal Long to come up the middle - if it does you read it here first.
01/03/01 Gibsons voter Email:
Gordo, the chameleon, is not so popular on the South Coast where he says one thing & does another, i.e. allowing logging in a community designated bio-diversity protected area on Mt. Elphinstone. Some Powell River voters are a bit unhappy with the continuing export of raw logs & jobs from their TFL (which can only be done with explicit consent from BC Cabinet where GW as Minister of Forests makes recommendations) & clear cutting of community built trails designed for future eco-tourism efforts.
20/03/01 Marty Email:
Last time the riding voted for Wilson the Noble. This time they won't vote for Wilson the Turncoat. Gordo's going down the gurgler.
22/03/01 kyle Email:kyle_jordanis@hotmail.com
NDP should win this one,historically NDP,and Lets face it Wilson is a media favourite.
22/03/01 Betrayed Email:
Watch out for backlash against Gordon Wilson in this riding. He has made enemies both among long standing NDP party loyalists - who were by-passed when Gordo jumped ship and also MAJOR backlash from former PDA members who trusted him as a member opposed to socialist ideals last time round. Don't count your chickens yet Gordo!
24/03/01 DF Email:
For those of us who can't really see much difference between the Liberals and the NDP--grow, grow, grow; and sell out to their special interest friends--the Honorable Gordon Wilson is the lynch pin. As former leader of two right wing parties and wannabee leader of the neo-NDP, the Hon. Mr. Wilson epitomizes all that is rotten in BC politics. Adriane Carr could walk away with this one.
25/03/01 Greg Email:
Harold Long is a strong candidate for the Liberals. He has represented the riding in the past as a Socred and comes from Powell River which would otherwise be a base of support for Wilson. Adrian Carr, running for the Greens, will be a strong threat on Wilson's left. Adrian is well connected within a very well organizaed environmental community in the SOuth of the riding. In fact, the Green organization election several municipal councillors in the last municipal campaign. While the riding has a strong federal CA/Reform vote, the disappearance of the BC Reform from the ballot and the nomination of a former Socred for the Liberals eliminates a similar right-wing challenge to the Liberals. The only reason to doubt a Liberal win is Wilson's strong personal appeal. However, unlike the last two campaigns Wilson is not going into this race as an underdog leader challenges the status quo. He will not be in the Leaders' debate. He has a record to defend, both a personal one of crossing the floor and a party record that has set the stage for the biggest electoral route in B.C. history. Give it to Liberal Long over NDP WIlson by a length.
04/04/01 Highland Flood Email:jazzpolice_99@yahoo.ca
A former college geography instructor, leading a perennial fringe party with no seats, catches the attention of an apathetic electorate in an election where the opposition is poised to win a massive majority as the government self-destructs. No one could have predicted that the party's leader would walk into the legislature as leader of the official opposition. We all know this story. It's the story of Gordon Wilson. Could it also be the story of Adrienne Carr? Like Wilson, as politicians go, she seems very down-to-earth, genuine, a good listener. That's how he's won this seat in two elections leading two different parties. It's always had a very strong NDP vote, yet it's never elected an NDP candidate. Its voters love an idealist, an outsider. Now Wilson has spent two years in government, with the very same party he attacked so vigorously when in opposition. His fizzle of a leadership campaign and his brief tenure in several different cabinet posts point to Wilson's problem: he sounds good when he's out of power. But make him opposition leader, or minister of finance, and his actions fall far short of what his words suggest he's capable of. How far has he fallen? Two Wilson quotes stick in my mind. The leaders' debate, 1991: "This, ladies and gentlemen, shows why nothing ever gets done in the legislature of our province!" The NDP leadership race, 1999: "I didn't stiff a widow, okay?" Carr is an untested quantity. Voters here will turn away from Gordon Wilson, who has turned from a maverick party leader into a follower of the NDP party line, but they will not turn to the Liberals. That'd be way too predictable. If Carr is in the debate, if the Greens get serious province-wide attention, look for her to duplicate Wilson's feat of 1991.
19/04/01 DMB Email:politics101@telus.net
While I am still sticking with my original post that Gordon will squeek out a victory I wonder based on the posts to date and the fact that both of Vancouver dailies consider this a riding to watch it hasn't been put into the too close to call category.
23/04/01 Mark R. Email:
Although there are a lot of people in this riding who feel stabbed in the back with Gordo's defection to the NDP, if 50% who voted for him still support the man, this riding will stay in Wilson's hands. The NDP could win this riding with less than 50%... and it wouldn't be suprising if they did. This will be one of the three (3) ridings that will go NDP.
23/04/01 Interested Voter Email:
I'm going out on a limb and changing my prediction on this one. The information I get from locals is that they voted for Gordo in '91 for change, in '96 for personality, and this time, forget it - 3 parties in 10 years means flake, not substance. Depending on how Adrienne Carr performs in the debates (she is a competent spokesperson and will get substantial coverage for the Greens for the first time), I feel she is destined to becoming the first Green elected provincially in Canada.
24/04/01 Mark R. Email:markusrobinson@hotmail.com
Yeah, I'd like to change my prediction from NDP to "too close to call". If the NDP candidate himself is predicting it'll be close (Vancouver Sun Apr 24), it's a sure sign the NDP here are in real trouble. The Vancouver Sun also interviews former Wilson voters who en masse say they will not vote NDP (various reasons given). As for the Green candidate, depending on how Ms. Carr does on the televised Leader's Debate could determine how many votes she siphones from the NDP (and perhaps even elect herself as a consequence!).
25/04/01 Poll Junkie Email:
I call this for Wilson for several reasons: 1) The overwhelming Liberal lead will push soft Green votes back to the NDP to ensure that there is some opposition to Campbell; 2) The NDP will throw massive resources into this seat; 3) Wilson still has the profile and retains a strong base of local support, including IWA members; 4) The Green campaign has been very weak so far - even though this is Carr's riding, most voters follow the provincial coverage and the Greens have been virtually invisible so far. Dosanjh is tagging Campbell (correctly) as being in the pocket of big polluters and this will position the NDP well with Green/NDP swing voters. Unless Carr pulls a Wilson in the TV debate, this election is shaping up as a two-horse race, and that will shut out Unity and Green completely. The "slow start" strategy by the Greens will turn out to be a big mistake, IMHO.
25/04/01 J.F. Breton Email:
Deux comtes sont susceptibles d'etre remportes par les Verts. Powell River-Sunshine Coast est l'un de ces deux comtes, l'autre etant Nelson-Creston. La leader Carr pourrait se faufiler entre les Liberaux et les NDP.
25/04/01 DMB Email:politics101@telus.net
Like Mark R I too am changing this one only to the Liberals - Hey you don't expect everyone to be 100% correct to you. 1.Look at the poll numbers 70% for the Liberals and 16 - 18% for the NDP and Ipsoo-Reid even has the Greens ahead of the NDP in pockets around the lower part of the province. 2. Why would soft Greens switch back to the NDP when the party could be finished as a political force in BC while the future looks bright for the Greens. Ian Waddell was quoted as saying he couldn't understand how with all the good enviromental things that the NDP did the voters put the Greens far ahead of them on enviromental issues - the answer - the NDP's green initiative was all about winning a few votes and little to do with saving the planet which the Greens are committed too. 3. I think a repeat of 1986 may be taking place here where a young college professor by the name of Gordon Wilson took about 15% of the votes as a Liberal allowing Howard Long as a Socred to unseat at long time NDPer. Only this time the Green Party will take the 15% and unseat Wilson and let Howard Long return to Victoria. Stay tuned there could be more posts from me yet on this one.
27/04/01 Trendwatcher Email:
Hullo? An NDP win? I don't think so. With the Green Party at 10% provincially, you have to assume that Adrienne Carr is running at double digits in Powell River Sunshine Coast and splitting Wilson's vote. Further, Wilson has been elected twice as an underdog, fighting against the establishment. This time, he is part of the establishment and he is wearing the NDP record. Harold Long is a good candidate for the Liberals because he had a solid record as MLA, is a successful businessman and strong community person, and genuinely likeable. Wilson has lost his lustre. He must be sitting on his porch at night thinking, "If only I were leader of the PDA!"
29/04/01 Spatch Email:
NDP and Greens will split the vote. Liberals will come up the middle. Plain and simple.
01/05/01 Michael Ensley Email:mensley@yahoo.com
The debate helped Carr and she will split the vote enough to insure the defeat of Wilson. However, Wilson will still come in second due to the concern for not having 79 Gordon Campbells.
01/05/01 J Smith Email:the_freakxxx@hotmail.com
I don't live in BC so I can't say I'm an expert on the politics there, but looking at the results from the previous election, I noticed something. When you add the PDA and NDP votes together you get a huge 14000+ vote total. Even if the NDP lost half of this total, one quarter to the Liberals (because people will vote for the person most likely to unseat the NDP) and the other to the Greens (because they are still left wingers but don't want the NDP) there are still enough votes left to give the NDP the win. Though the result will be close, look for this seat to survive the carnage.
01/05/01 Mark R. Email:markusrobinson@hotmail.com
Well, after careful analysis, I have to conclude that this riding will go to Harold Long of the BC Liberals. When VTV profiled this riding, they had a hard time finding someone who would support Wilson. Too many people are saying that he's with the wrong party, consequently this riding should be at the very LEAST considered "too close to call". The Green candidate is strong and will siphone votes from the NDP. Reform/Unity is unquestionably not a major factor in this riding, and the candidate is no longer popular.
02/05/01 Trendwatcher Email:
Wilson's main attack theme is the "Liberal corporate agenda". Oops, so much for that one. A $30 million secret deal with a major forest company on the eve of an election - one that the Premier did not know about and is planning to investigate - should once again expose Wilson for the hypocrite that he is.
03/05/01 Highland Flood Email:jazzpolice_99@yahoo.ca
Well, after watching the debate I'm sticking with my prediction. Carr may not have delivered a performance like Wilson's in '91, but I think she made a difference just by being in the debate. She was nervous, but showed the same impassioned idealism that attracted people to Wilson in the first place. Meanwhile, Dosanjh kept on flailing out at Gordon Campbell every time he opened his mouth. People who supported the Liberals and PDA under Wilson, as well as even some diehard New Democrats, will take a serious look at the Greens. Intriguing statistic about this riding: it's gone to a different party in every election since 1983: NDP, Socred, Liberal, and PDA. If there's any trend at work here, it should work in favour of the Greens, especially since Carr is the party leader.
03/05/01 Bernard Schulmann Email:bernard.schulmann@lillonet.org
I am changing my mind, Long by a mile now. Wilson is fading fast, but will still finish second. Carr will be a distant third.
03/05/01 DMB Email:politics101@telus.net
What is even more amazing about this riding and Gordo's latest innocent little helping of a Moe Sihota friend - Herb Doman is the fact that it is still in the NDP win column. Would the moderator like to share with us his secret formula as to how he can continue to justify not moving this to at least too close to call. While Ms Carr didn't do as good as I thought she might in the debate the latest polls # out today and taken after the debate have the Greens at 13% province wide and as leaders often run ahead of the party popular vote she could take 20% at least and finish second to Howard Long. As for Gordo who is totally finished after the Doman caper - perhaps Ujjah will show some real leadership and fire Gordo as the NDP candidate in this riding.
03/05/01 Gibsons voter Email:
A Wilson win, no doubt about it. The Liberals have rented a nice big office space for campaign headquarters, but hardly anyone is around and all phoning is being done from Vancouver. The local Greens organised an all-candidate meeting last night that was extremely sparsely attended and showed vocal support for many of Mr. Wilson's responses. Look for a few NDP votes to be siphoned off by the Greens, but the local message is that a vote for the Greens is a vote for the Liberals, and this community is still working class enough to not vote Liberal.
04/05/01 keith lim Email:keithlim@pobox.com
The revelation of the Doman deal probably ends any hope of Gordon Wilson retaining his seat. The voters who supported Wilson of the Liberals and Wilson of the PDA won't support Wilson of the NDP, who has now shown himself to be little different from the rest of the NDP, and who likely will be thrown out along with the rest of them. Adriane Carr will probably get higher than her party average (polls say this is 10-13%, at time of writing), and much of it will come at the expense of Wilson/NDP. That alone might have cost Wilson (vote splitting), but the Doman deal is likely to be the last straw. Liberal win, though possibly only with a plurality rather than an outright majority.
04/05/01 BC Political Junkie Email:
How could anyone still have this riding listed under the NDP? Wilson was profiled the other night on the BCTV news and he looked like a dead man walking, and this was BEFORE the Doman scandal. NDP support is collapsing like a bad souffle, and Wilson has long since lost the lustre he once had as the "spunky indepdendent". Word from the front is that NDP support in this riding is moving en masse to the Greens, leaving Wilson a very poor third. This one will be a close battle between the Liberals and the Greens, but I have a hunch that Carr's personal popularity, the growth of the Greens, (pardon the pun) plus the independent streak that voters in this riding have shown in the past, will make Adriane Carr one of the three or four non-BC Liberal Members of the new Legislature.
04/05/01 Concerned Voter Email:
It isn't how many right things you do in politics that makes you popular; its avoiding the BIG MISTAKES. Gordons little problems are now all coming to roost. All for a few coins Gordon Wilson sold his soul to the NDP. Today, if he was the leader of the PDA, he might be the new Leader of the Official Opposition. Egotism is the anesthetic that dulls the pain of Stupidity. The people of the sunshine Coast are smart, they will throw out this carpet bagger for good. I hope Gordon Wilson will receive something for Doman Deal and I hope the people of the Sunshine coast give it to him.
06/04/01 gibsons voter Email:
It is a mistake to mark this riding as a Liberal win. There is a definite two-way race going on for the seat. Adriane Carr is not considered a serious contender by the community or Norman Ruff, political scientist at UBC. He says in this week's local paper and I quote, "The big question mark is the Green vote. I suspect that Carr could be a spoiler for Wilson and Long could come up the middle." Ruff doesn't believe that Carr will win a seat for the Greens, but she could boost the Green vote and make the difference in the close race between Long and Wilson. In this riding, a vote for the Greens is definitely a vote for the Liberals, so if you don't want Long to get in folks, don't vote Green. He goes on to say that there are six or seven ridings worth watching on E-day and this is one of them. Telephone canvassing shows very strong support for Wilson, even after the media got through attempting to smear Wilson's attempt at saving 4,500 Vancouver Island jobs. Local all-candidates meetings show good support for Wilson, and now even previous Green candidates have thrown their support behind him. This race is far from over.
07/05/01 PG Email:
I am a First Nation person, but not from this riding, However my wife is from Sechelt. I have a Question, How is the relation between the Sechelt Nation and the Non-aboriginals with the Liberals wanting a referendum. Do the voter in the Sechelt, Gibsons area believe in a Referendum and what kind of effect will it have between aboriginals and non-aboriginals. I grew up in Gibson 25 years it took 10 years before I was accepted by both aboriginal and non-aboriginals. I pray that this doesn't separate the community, and I pray for settlement of Land claims and peace for all aboriginals and non-aboriginals. I hope we chose what is right for all! I myself don't believe in a referendum. It is up to the government to inform the British Columbians on land claims. The issues of First Nation not giving up their rights and title to land has already been decided. It is not the Aboriginals fault British Columbians are not up to date on First Nation Treatys. I have sent an e-mail out to all parties and news media to work on having just forums for the people who are interested in the prosess. What has happen to aboriginals is the fault of the Government, let the Government fix it, but not through referendum.
08/05/01 Malcolm Samuels Email:
The media buzz from the Green Party likely becoming the opposition will earn leader Adriane Carr her seat. Those saying that Gordon Wilson is going to split the "left" vote are not thinking straight. "Flip Wilson" is hardly left-leaning considering his involvement with THREE different political parties in this province over the last ten years. And this Doman situation is sure to bite him in the arse. If the people of this riding care about democracy, they'll vote for Carr. Her party actually has a sound platform, something that both the Liberals and NDP are missing.
10/05/01 Dave Email:dave_too2@yahoo.ca
The fate of this riding was decided the moment that Dosanjh conceeded defeat. It's going to be close, if Carr isn't elected, she's going to be a close second. Those who think that you can add 1996's PDA vote (Wilson) to 1996's NDP vote are mistaken, that was largely a personal vote for Gordon Wilson, as it was in '91. This time around, the independent minded vote is going to go to Carr.
BTW, there's something suspicious about the "resdistributed" 1996 vote results on this page. According to the final report of the boundary commision, "We continue to suggest no changes for the electoral district of Powell River-Sunshine Coast,which,with the adjusted figures provided by BC STATS which are discussed above,has a population of 44,900 with a deviation of minus 4.8 percent."
In other words, if the boundaries haven't changed, the "Previous Result (old ridings)" table should be identical to the "Previous Result (redistribution)" table.
11/05/01 DMB Email:politics101@telus.net
I was almost going to reconsider my call on this ridings as friends who have been up on the Sunshine Coast were suggesting that Ms Carr was going to win this riding when lo and behold in the Province today the results of a poll on the riding. Long 51% Carr 25% and Wilson 20% - looks like a classic example of a left wing vote split will elect a Liberal. What Party will Mr Wilson come crawling to next.
14/05/01 Interested Observer Email:
All the wishing in the world by Green supporters isn't going to put this (or any other riding in BC) into the win column for the GP. While they are polling province-wide equal to the NDP, their support is an inch deep and a mile wide. In a first past the post system, you gotta have deep support in at least a few ridings. The dippers have this in 3 or 4 ridings across BC - the Greens don't - Carr needs Wilson's vote to collapse by at least another 10 points, and I'm guessing there's at least 15% of the PRSC voters who will vote for Gordon 'cause they like him personally.
Of course, my post will drive all the pro-proportional representation supporters out into the open. Sorry folks, this isn't Italy. Whatever you might think of PR, the truth is that ya gotta play by the current rules.
And to a previous poster who was celebrating the fact that Carr might come second...close doesn't count on election day. Mark my words - she'll fade into obscurity 48 hours post-election.
15/05/01 S.G. Email:
Even though the Green vote will be very high, it will not be enough to get Carr in. With the latest province poll, showing the split on the left, Long will probably win. Too bad, it would have been interesting if Carr were to be in the legislature.
15/05/01 MC Email:
COMPAS Poll results from the Vancouver Sun: Long 46%, Carr 30%, Wilson 20%. According to the poll, Long is getting 61% of former PDA voters while Wilson only gets 10% (!) I don't think there's any "might" about Carr finishing ahead of Wilson.

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Last Updated 16 May 2001
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