British Columbia Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Vancouver-Mount Pleasant

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:
Candidates:
Communist Party
CARIOU, Kimball
Green Party
HOFMANN, Dale
New Democratic Party
KWAN, Jenny Wai Ching
Independent
LIAR, Liar
Party of Citizens
POLEY, Franklin Wayne
Liberal Party
SPARROW, Gail Yvonne
Unity Party
WRIGHT, Ken
Incumbent:
  Vancouver-Mount Pleasant
Jenny Kwan

Previous Result (redistribution):
368425.48%
9125.563.11%
2851.97%
PDA
4893.38%
573.53.97%
Previous Result (old ridings):
Vancouver-Mount Pleasant
424324.36%
1115564.05%
3542.03%
PDA
5843.35%
Census 1996:
Population:51960
Dev. from Quota:10.21%
Area (km2):13
Pop Density:3996.92

Surrounding Ridings:
North Vancouver-Lonsdale
Vancouver-Burrard
Vancouver-Fairview
Vancouver-Hastings
Vancouver-Kensington
Vancouver-Kingsway

Submissions
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17/02/01 Interested Voter Email:
While this has always been considered THE safest seat for the NDP, bet on a longer election night for Jenny Kwan. Liberals have given a good quality candidate a really tough seat. But the reality is that the poorest and most dangerous part of Canada, after ten years with the NDP, is no better off than when they started.
19/02/01 CM Email:
One of the few NDP safe seats. Cabinet minister Jenny Kwan will be re-elected, though not as easily as last time.
20/02/01 Bernard Schulmann Email: bernard.schulmann@lillonet.org
Jenny Kwan has not been very impressive in Victoria, short of the daisy incident at the Woodward's building, she has not been much of a presence even though she is in cabinet. Furthermore, the competition is Gail Sparrow, former chief of Musqueam. She better connected to understanding the problems of the downtown eastside. It also harms the NDPs plank of saying the Liberals will be worse on the Aboriginal People than the NDP. In case you did know, Gail is Eddie John's sister in law.....
15/03/01 DMB Email: dennisbaher@netscape.net
Of all the safe NDP seats this is the one that will be the biggest upset come election night. Jenny has been a fine MLA for the 4 or 5 block area called the downtown east side but has totally neglected the remainder of the riding. The Chinese community is mad at her for her perceived support of the drug dealers etc at Hastings and Main and ignoring the rest of the community. The Liberals have nominated high profile native leader Gail Sparrow who already has her campaign office opened and staffed and with more volunteers signing up every day. If the four life-time NDP'ers in my building who are joining the Liberals to defeat Jenny are an indication of a trend then Jenny is in big trouble. While it won't be easy and the NDP will put all their resources and political hacks into the riding the voters are mad and the latest budget miscue along with the student loan miscue along with the admission that BC Hydro won't be turning a profit next year are all questions that Jenny will have to answer and when it come to answering questions Jenny has never been very good a responding to anything. Gail will squeak this one out on election night.For your interest I have lived in Mt Pleasant by choice for the past 23 years so I do know something about the riding. It was well served when former Premier Mike Harcourt represented it and I voted for him.
19/03/01 vmtp resident Email:
after reading the posted submissions, i began to feel a little disheartened at the potential for a scourge of L-iberalism to sweep this city/province. then i read the comments/predictions under vancouver-hastings and laughed my ass off.....thank you all, i'm feeling much better now....and won't take all of this too seriously then.....
i beleive that the supporters of this community know that the only acceptable candidate is Jenny Kwan. and those who read more than the vancouver sun or province realise that beyond the pomp and egos that many of our elected representatives show, a new style of politics is emerging - one which gets little credit, too much criticism, but is able to deliver. thanks to Jenny for not only representing vmtp but giving a damn.
i'm voting Kwan all the way......
26/03/01 kyle Email:
Long history of voting NDP,this riding will return Kwan this time around.
26/03/01 Bob Davies Email:mktork@hotmail.com
The Liberals will take this seat too! Jenny Kwan will be forever remebered as the lady who ran the Ministry of Family Detruction and CHild Abduction - that alone should sink her ship. If that is not enough, her name is linked to the Leaky Condo Scandal (Yes there is a Jenny Kwondo, Santa Claus). ANother watermelon goes down to defeat!
28/03/01 Email:
Jenny will win on election night in Mt. Pleasant, unfortunately that's all, the province will go Campbell, she is still very popular personally, and that will pull her through with little trouble in Mount Pleasant.
03/04/01 Highland Flood Email:jazzpolice_99@yahoo.ca
Conventional wisdom has the NDP winning this riding, or to put it another way, if they can't win this one then they can't win anywhere else. Well, maybe they can't! Gail Sparrow will be a formidable opponent for Kwan, but more importantly, Kwan and the NDP have lost a lot of their core support. This is an inner-city riding, with many people on very low or no incomes. They feel betrayed by the NDP, most recently by the callous way in which the NDP has contributed to a situation where transit service is being slashed, and bus drivers / SkyTrain workers are on strike, partly because the NDP wouldn't allow TransLink to collect a vehicle levy to help pay for road and transit improvements. This is an issue that affects inner-city dwellers very directly: no bus service after 1:40 a.m., longer waits and more crowded buses during the day, more diesels instead of electric trolleybuses. It will become a campaign issue, regardless of when the transit strike is settled. If the strike is still on during the election, many NDP supporters will have trouble getting to the polls! The Greens don't have a candidate yet, but they will attract much of the huge majority that up until now has automatically voted NDP. Before now, there didn't seem to be any other choice. Kwan will still be competitive despite her lacklustre performance in Victoria, because she's associated herself closely with putting more affordable housing downtown. But other urban environmental issues, like public transit, will do the NDP in, and Kwan will go down with the ship. This time last week I would've predicted between 6 and 10 NDP seats, and none for the Greens. Now I'd say no NDP seats, and anywhere between 1 and 6 for the Greens. It'll be a brave new world under the Liberals, and it calls for a brand-new opposition!
18/04/01 Poll Junkie Email:
Correction to Bob Davies' post - Jenny Kwan has never been the Minister of Children and Families, as he alleges. She has been at Municipal Affairs, Women's Equality, and Community Development, Co-operatives and Volunteers, and has served well in all three capacities. Leaky condos are not a big issue in this working-class riding (and even if it was, what is Campbell's position on it???), it's affordable housing, the environment and poverty, where the NDP have a far better record thaen the Liberals. Kwan will hold the seat against the Liberal tidal wave.
18/04/01 DMB Email:politics101@telus.net
Note to Poll junkie - you are right about Jenny never having been Minister of Children and Families and I beleive that Bob Davies could have been referring to someone close to Jenny who has been in the business of building lofts and condos. You also mention the need for affordable housing, the enviroment and poverty - hasn't the NDP had ten years to solve these problems but then they spent $500 million of three fast ferries and another $150 million or so on Carriere lumber - plus just how these problems are going to be solved from the far back benches of the legislature will be interesting. I still think Gail Sparrow will win a narrow victory over Jenny on May 16, 2001
18/04/01 MB Email:
This riding should be put into the "not sure" category or thrown to the BC Liberals. Jenny Kwan may have made a name for herself as an MLA, but she has demonstrated an extreme lack of political judgement. She may have been the first Chinese Canadian Cabinet minister, but her radical views have not endeared her to the riding's Chinese community. And, while she may present herself as the friend of the poor, her Business-class junket off to London to check out the Underground with George Puil will not endear her to any of the riding's working poor (the state of the Underground is a national scandal in the UK, literally and is so bad it may cost New Labour seats in London, so why anyone would copy it is beyond me). And, the BC Liberals have a candidate that is aboriginal and is actively, and constructively engaged in helping the real social problems of the Downtown Eastside (as opposed to painting daisies on the former Woodward's department store with a can of spray paint). In addition, let's not forget the Greens will run strongly in this riding, as will the Marijuana Party, taking votes from the NDP almost exclusively. Statistics from past elections are meaningless when the voter mood and the media have completely turned against the government (which did not happen in 1996).
24/04/01 JAB Email:
Yes, Jenny Kwan painted a daisy on the Woodwards building - and the NDP bought it for, among other things, social housing! And not only the Woodwards building, but housing and tenants' rights throughout the riding. Hmm . . . and where does Gordon and the Libs stand on social housing - oh yeah, pay 75% of your paycheque to your landlord and shut up! And, I must ask where MB lives, for WHAT has Gail Sparrow done in the Downtown Eastside; what "social issues" has she worked on the area? I suggest MB check out the urban Native support Jenny has worked for and earned during her years with the indiviuals, families and groups of the DTES.
24/04/01 Francis Email:
Kwan will win here. The purchase of Woodwards and the daisy incident will play well. She is absolutely slaughtering the Liberal in the sign war. In some streets she is outnumbering the Lib 50-3, on PRIVATE PROPERTY. Jenny Kwan is a lock
24/04/01 DMB Email:politics101@telus,net
Thought for JAB - as one who has lived in Mt Pleasant for the past 23 years I do not dispute Jenny's involvement in the DTES but what about the remainder of the riding - where was she when a major supermarket, major car dealer, major clothing manufacture, big bank and credit union all left Kingsway and Broadway area and the jobs associated with them - where was she when a 75 year old women went heatless while a slum landlord at Fraser & Broadway played politics and complaints of police harassment. Where was and where is Jenny today on the issue of Skytrain along the Grandview Cut. Perhaps I have missed out on something the pass five years and JAB do you live in the riding. At least with Mike Harcourt he attempted while Premier to help all areas of the riding and not just the 4 or 5 blocks of the downtown east side.I rest my case JAB.
26/04/01 Mark R. Email:markusrobinson@hotmail.com
The NDP lead here in the last election was huge. Gail Sparrow in an excellent BC Liberal candidate, and I think she's doing a good job on the ground from what I see in the media. However, this will be one of the three (3) ridings that will go NDP simply because of demographics and the fact that Jenny had a high profile while in government (not always positive, however). If, however, the Greens get above 10%, or the Green support solidifies over the next couple of weeks, look for me to change my tune to "too close to call". If the Greens shine at the televised Leader's Debate and hit Dosanjh hard, it could spell total wipeout.
08/05/01 patak Email:
Think many submissions miss the complexities of who lives in the community which includes many poor and mentally ill and while some may not vote there are others who will certainly remeber cuts to single persons on welfare and the failure of the NDP government to improve by one iota the lot of the mentally ill despite their promises; think Sparrow has the ability to upset Kwan here
08/05/01 DMB Email:politics101@telus.net
Hopefully this will be my last post to this riding. Previously I have posted that I thought Jenny Kwan has been a great MLA for the downtown eastside but had neglected most of the remainder of the riding when today in my mailbox - yes I live and vote in MT Pleasant - I receive her campaign mailing where she outlines her $ given to the riding over the past two years - it's totals $150 Million including an estimated $75 million to convert the old Woodwards building into social housing etc. Here's the breakdown of $ committed by region within MT Pleasant - these are her figures quoted directly from her campaign literature. Downtown eastside $125.5 Million, Chinatown $ 14.2 Million, Mount Pleasant $ 8.7 Million, Grandview-Woodland $ 1.2 Million. Total $149.6 Million of which over 80% is committed to the four to five block area of the downtown east side which confirms my earliest post as to how she has neglected the remainder of the riding. There is also no mention of Skytrain coming into and through the riding - guess that's a hot potato that she doesn't want to discuss in this election. She also in her campaign literature tells voters to re-elect MLA Jenny Kwan which is in violation of the Legislature's policy which clearly states that once the election writ is dropped and regardless of whether you are in cabinet or not you are not allowed to use the words MLA in any of your campaign literature. I am sure that it's just an oversight on her campaign team and not a deliberate attempt to influence the voters of MT Pleasant. The voters will in a week be deciding Jenny's fate.
11/05/01 LHGP Email:right_canada1@hotmail.com
If the sign war is any indication, Ms. Kwan will pull through. With a very sizable margin last time around, she can still lose 20% of what she had last time and secure the riding. This is one of the only few ridings where there is a race, but in a campaign where NDPers are afraid to put up signs for fear of vandalism, Jenny has a huge sign presence as well as incumbent advantage. I say look to see Jenny elected as part of a 2-5 member NDP opposition caucus.
15/05/01 MC Email:
To state my biases, I'm a left-wing voter in the riding. Noone has talked about Dale Hofmann so far. Since the Green vote will be a factor in this riding, and since I've seen him in Friday's some-candidates' meeting at the Carnegie Center (Gail Sparrow is one of the Liberal candidates who haven't been showing up at all-candidates' meetings), as well as in TV and radio clips, I'll mention that he comes across well in these formats. (I've seen Green candidates who wouldn't have, believe me!) Given that he's a good candidate in a left-wing riding, I expect that he's running well ahead of the overall Green numbers. His connections to the riding are apparantly (I don't know for sure) as an activist in the downtown east side, which, if so, wouldn't exactly help Jenny. According to a story in the Province, the "Community Alliance" (an association of shopowners in the Chinatown/downtown east side area) is running attack ads against Jenny in the Chinese language media. The issue is drug policy - they don't like needle exchanges, let alone the Four Pillars policy. The NDP's East Vancouver MLAs finally got an endorsement from Svend Robinson yesterday. He's probably the parliamentarian Greens most respect, so that should help the NDP take some much-needed votes from the Greens. DMB criticizes Jenny for not bailing out any uneconomic businesses in the riding. I have to say that I'd think better of the NDP government if it had carried out that philosophy across the province: that would have saved us Skeena Cellulose and the fast ferries, to name only two. When I vote for a left-wing candidate it's for them to protect the poor and the environment, not to subsidize uneconomic businesses. I'll guess that the NDP will win this one, but it'll be close.

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Last Updated 16 May 2001
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