Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009


Prediction Changed
11:55 PM 11/05/2009

Constituency Profile

Brar, Jagrup
Green Party
Geall, Christin
Sandhu, Chamkaur (Cory)
Singh, Jagmohan

HAYER, Dave S.
(Approx. 65% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

Surrey-Green Timbers
(Approx. 20% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

BAINS, Harry
(Approx. 15% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 05 07 T Smith
J Brar is definitely winning the sign war in this riding. Even though J Singh does have a decent backing in this riding, J Brar will be returned to Victoria. Non Indo-Canadians are having a tough time understanding J Singh, and C Sidhu will only take away some of the BC Liberal votes. I think J Brar will come through albeit a smaller margin then the previous election. Also, G Campbell hasn't made an appearance in the riding, which as you know indicates that the riding is less likely to be won. Also, J Singh has been noticeably absent from a number of all-candidates meetings, which through rumblings, I have heard has in fact frustrated traditional BC Liberal supporters/voters.
09 04 20 ArmchairPundit
This will be a real tough one for the NDP to put in their column. NDP incumbent Jagrup Brar jumped to this riding after redistribution made his old home of Panorama Ridge unwinnable for him.
Brar has made an ass of himself in the Indo-Canadian media recently. It is not so much his arcane logic that the Liberals should postpone the election, but his inability to explain himself coherently afterward that earned him a rough ride on RED FM for a few days. How much that plays on election day is tough to gauge, but this is probably the closest riding in Surrey and without heavy Indo-Canadian support, Brar loses. The bet here is that Jagmohan Singh has enough support in that community to bleed away Brar's chance of a third consecutive victory.
09 04 20 binriso
Luckily for the NDP, there?s a Conservative running here, one of the only ones not from a rural riding. Looks like it will be enough for them to hold on to the seat but still will be a close one...
09 03 27 rhudson
A very close race will shape up, but ultimately the new developments in the eastern (BC Liberal) part of the riding will send Jag Singh to victoria. Look for both parties to target this riding, but given demographics and higher BC Liberal polling numbers, the NDP will have a tough time putting this riding in their column.
09 01 18 BJ
Surrey's only real ?swing? riding with no incumbent. The NDP would have won this seat by a margin of ~150 votes in 2005 with vote transposition. Alot of development has also occurred in the eastern part since 2005. Surrey Panorama NDP MLA has switched to this riding hoping for a win. The only barometer for this riding should be public opinion polls just prior to the election. If polls show the Liberals provincially under the 4% spread that they had in 2005 then it's an NDP win and vice versa.

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