11 05 01	Stéphane Gaudet 66.130.172.171
Normalement, une chute du Bloc aurait profité aux libéraux dans ce comté, mais le PLC est désormais si faible au Québec, même Westmount risque de délaisser le rouge pour l'orange ! Ce comté comprend la ville de St-Lambert, assez aisée et plutôt progressiste, habitée par de nombreux artistes, un milieu qui pourrait être propice au NPD. C'est l'Outremont de la Rive-Sud ! Il comprend aussi une partie très francophone et souverainiste de la ville de Longueuil, électeurs qui semblent en voie de voter NPD cette fois-ci si la vague orange se concrétise. Toutes les conditions sont donc réunies pour l'élection de Sadia Groguhé.
	11 04 28	Tory in Dixie 97.81.164.202
Je respecte tres bien la connaissance de ‘Bear and Ape’ mais je suis pas d'accord avec leur prediction que les liberaux vont gagner cette circonscription - normalement je dirais le meme chose - MAIS, en les sondages l'appui des liberaux a tombe, et ces l'npd que va gagner cette siege.
	11 04 27	rsg 64.180.47.120
I agree with Bear&Ape,i think in this case the NDP will sap enough votes away from the Bloc incumbent to allow Roxanne stanners to win in her second attempt in St. Lambert.
	11 04 26	Teddy Boragina 198.96.35.248
This is the strongest chance for an NDP win south of Montreal, across the river. I admit I do not understand this riding very well, or why the NDP might or might not have support in the area, but as Scott Reid said today on P&P, at some point, the math just takes over. Regardless of what I do or do not know about the riding, I do know that the NDP has the math to win here.
	11 04 26	Simon Prud'homme 96.20.46.136
Certes, le Bloc a gagné par environ 4000 voix d'avance seulement à la dernière élection. Néanmoins, les libéraux n'annoncent aucun regain d'énergie dans Saint-Lambert ou au Québec en général pour le moment, bien au contraire. La seule chance de Mme Stanners serait que le NPD vienne ‘voler’ quelques milliers de voix au Bloc, scénario crédible mais qui laisse perplexe. Dans le doute, je parierais sur Mme Beaudin au terme d'une lutte serrée. Grâce à la compétence de la candidate certes, mais aussi à cause de la faiblesse des ‘rouges’.
	11 04 25	WAC 99.230.244.3
I'm going to have to disagree with Bear and Ape (and I rarely do) but the situation is so fluid in Quebec right now amongst francophone voters that I can't say for sure what will happen. This type of seat doesn't seem like a natural fit for the NDP in say Ontario - but with the Liberal brand suffering so much in francophone Quebec right now - if the NDP are in fact at between 31-36% in Quebec and leading the Bloc as three polls have suggested - then this is the type of seat that could very well fall to the NDP. I thought it was interesting that Duceppe brought out the ghost of Parizeau on the South Shore to try to shore up nationalist voters (no pun intented). It will be an interesting night. Just by virtue of the polling numbers this will be a close three way race on election night.
	11 04 25	Marco Ricci 72.138.2.247
It's hard to know what will happen here now. The Bloc seems to be worried about keeping this riding. Today Gilles Duceppe brought Jacques Parizeau out of retirement to give a big speech here! Is the BQ support collapsing?
	11 04 24	Neal Ford 184.144.51.42
Doc and prof, I agree that the Libs have the edge for some of the reasons you mentioned, but the promise of a new bridge seems pretty worthless considering the Libs, at this point, have zero chance of forming a government, and making good on it. Nevertheless, the decline of the Bloc, the Dip drain-off on the Bloc, and the fgact tthat the Tories are not putting a major candidate, combined with Stanners being better known after a previous run, leads me to believe that this one moves back to the grit column.
	11 04 24	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 70.54.152.240
BQ and CPC support are dropping in Quebec while the Liberals are holding. If that were the case then we can see the Liberals taking St Lambert. The NDP would not appeal to the suburban folk who live here enough to take the riding and Iggy's promise of a new bridge would score many points.
	11 04 20	JC 66.207.216.130
Stanners will win, With the NDP siphoning soft nationalist votes from the BQ, I have to think Stanners will have just enough to win here.
	11 04 16	M. Lunn 174.116.190.108
This is a riding the Liberals did have a shot at earlier, but with the party struggling to get above 20% province wide, I just cannot see them taking this at this point in the game. If they were polling in the upper 20s then they would have a chance, but that has not happened.
	11 04 15	BM 206.188.88.103
Je ne pense pas que le parti libéral ait des chances de l'emporter car la circonscription comprend maintenant une vaste partie de Longueuil hautement souverainiste.
	11 04 14	Neal 184.144.51.42
This formerly safe Liberal riding has been a nailbiter for the past 3 elections. while the Bloc has won it, it has been partly on account of split federalist vote. Not this time. It will still be a squeaker, but I think Stanners takes it by a less than 1%. The Bloc has failed to entrench itself and solidify here as they have in ridings like chateauguay.
	11 04 09	joey joe joe 173.178.135.34
Definitely in play. Roxanne Stanners is a repeat candidate for the Liberals and Ignateiff's pledge for a new Champlain bridge to Montreal vs. the conservatives just looking to repair crumbling the current bridge should warm the hearts of this commuter riding. Both Conservatives and NDP are not running exceptional candidates so Federalist can move the Liberals.
	11 04 02	M.Lunn 174.116.190.108
Favours the Bloc, although the Liberals are strong on the west side of the riding meaning if a strong uptick in Liberal support could tip this in favour of the Liberals.
	11 03 26	bretonjf@hotmail.com 74.59.193.30
Si les Libéraux n'étaient pas tant dans la cave des sondeurs, il pourrait y avoir lutte. Mais à 10-15% dans les sondages au Québec, ça me semble irréaliste de prévoir ici autre chose qu'une victoire du Bloc.
	09 09 03	Paul Tremblay 67.159.44.138
The incumbent MP, Josée Beaudin, is running again for the Bloc, and Roxanne Stanners is also running again for the Liberals. My only prediction for this riding is... a recount.
	09 09 01	binriso 156.34.209.15
Probably BQ but the Liberals who have about the same number of votes as the CPC and NDP combined here means they are most likely the main opposition and probably have a 50-50 shot of winning this seat.
	09 08 31	JF Breton 207.134.225.57
Difficile de prédire un gagnant ici avant de connaître les candidats. Un bon candidat libéral et un faible candidat conservateurs pourraient faire fondre la faible majorité de 4000 voix du Bloc. À défaut de connaître les candidats libéraux et conservateurs: TCTC.