Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2011

Scarborough-Guildwood


Prediction Changed
2009-09-05 11:11:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Bartley, Alonzo

Coulbeck, Paul

Konkel, Chuck

McKay, John

Ouellette, Danielle

Incumbent:
Hon. John McKay

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • scarborough-centre (42/215 Polls)
  • scarborough-east (119/194 Polls)
  • scarborough-southwest (27/202 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


  •  


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    11 04 30 The Jackal
    74.51.58.42
    Reluctant to call this anything but Liberal as Scarborough will remain one of the last bastions of Liberal strength in the country after election day.
    11 04 25 Larry
    76.70.84.155
    Plenty of Conservative and Liberal signs up, Conservatives only party to send literature by mail where I live. Low key campaign by all parties seen no one canvassing! But it will be close, could be a narrow Conservative win, and McKay will not be easy to beat!
    11 04 24 Ceuti67
    99.245.47.58
    Signage in riding more even than any campaign in last 10 years at least. Konkel signs in non traditional neighborhoods as well. McKay message tied too closely to party as a whole and he is going to pay a price for this on the2nd. He is linked to Chretien, Martin years still and that hangover still is not over. Konkel is much more ready this time and his message is clear, direct and resonating. This isTHEScarboroughriding that can turn. Look for the breakthrough.
    11 04 22 Guildwoodvoter
    174.95.86.178
    With the NDP taking off, the Rouge Valley Park and work on the Guild being a big hit, and with McKay not being well like in the riding the Conservatives have a real shot. The fact that they brought a professional campaign manager that use to live in the riding back shows how serious the party thinks they can win.
    11 04 22 Billy boy
    205.188.116.134
    This is getting closer all the time. I'm not yet ready to predict a CPC win, but this might be the breakthrough riding in Toronto. I discount the ‘local candidate’ idea, as MacKay is rarely in the riding anyway, and Konkel does have ties to the riding.
    11 04 08 jijiji ji jijiji
    173.32.158.39
    Its going liberal. The fact that the riding association couldn't find someone to run for the conservatives who lived in the riding kind of shows how little they expect to win here.
    11 04 07 ATGM
    115.30.172.37
    The Guildwood is solidly middle class and exactly the kind of riding the Conservative should be targeting. McKay is a total nonentity in the house and MIA in the riding. Given this, you would have thought the would have nominated a star candidate. Alas, they haven't, so it will stay liberal with a slightly reduced majority.
    11 04 06 MH
    174.89.123.82
    In this riding's predecessor, Reform wrecked the PC's in 1993. The right wing has been weak ever since. Even in 2008, when Stéphane Dion turned off Liberal voters in droves, John McKay took just over 50% of the popular vote and his Conservative challenger slightly more than 30%. McKay continues to be locally popular, and Michael Ignatieff is doing better than Dion. A safe Liberal seat.
    11 04 05 Tony Ducey
    76.11.85.66
    Might be the closest the Conservatives get to a seat in Scarborough but they still lose this 1.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    May have once gone Conservative, but as a largely immigrant riding, the Liberals have been able to rack up big majorities amongst this group and despite the Tory inroads amongst immigrants, the gap is simply too large to overcome.
    09 09 04 A.S.
    99.232.162.133
    Unlike John Cannis, McKay kept his head above 50%. And unlike Cannis, he clearly won the advance polls. Another yawner in the works--though, at least in the long term, the federal NDP might want to bank in '07's provincial ‘Neethan Shan’ strategy if it wants to make something of its visceral dislike of Bloc Scarberia in a Count Iggy age...



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