Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Ottawa South


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:37:37
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Brisson, Jean-Serge

Farah, Wali

MacDonald, Jason

McGuinty, Dalton

Mihaychuk, James

Redins, John

Incumbent:
Hon Dalton McGuinty

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    * DALTON MCGUINTY
    24,01550.13%
    RICHARD RAYMOND
    14,20629.66%
    EDELWEISS D'ANDREA
    4,4679.33%
    JOHN FORD
    3,9028.15%
    DAVID MACDONALD
    9271.94%
    JEAN-SERGE BRISSON
    3840.80%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    2255351.43%
    1486733.90%
    397809.07%


  •  


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    11 10 04 P.O.
    99.241.110.178
    Dalton is in for a surprise here. I haven't seen maybe Liberal signs this election. Either LIberals in the riding don't want to show they are supporting him or are planning to stay at home. The PC Candidate has been docking on doors since March. I'm really looking fwd to Election night in this riding.Prediction.. PC win this by a slim margin.
    11 10 04 rebel
    198.103.104.11
    The latest Forum mass poll of marginal ridings suggests the race is a lot closer than 2007 with the Liberals down 5% and PCs up 8%.
    Ottawa South (L. 50.1% in 2007)
    Lib 44.9 PC 37.6 NDP 12.6 Gr 3.8
    Now I am surprised that the NDP is quite as low as they are at 12.6%, given a provincial wide total which is higher than the last federal election. This poll asked preferences naming candidates, giving full play to the McGuinty factor in Ottawa South.
    At last an interesting race in Ottawa South...
    11 10 02 Marco Ricci
    99.248.110.65
    I remember that in 1 or 2 previous elections there were also predictions that McGuinty would lose his own seat and he ended up winning comfortably. This was during the Harris years and so if McGuinty could win when the PC's were higher and were winning majorities, I would assume he can still win at a time when the PC's are not back to the level of support they were under Harris. It would also be at odds with the pattern of this riding both provincially and federally, since at both levels it has voted Liberal every single time over the past 2 decades. And as mentioned below, McGuinty's brother David just won another term federally here a few months ago. In conclusion, one assumes that the McGuinty team is solid here, although it may certainly be the case that Dalton's win could be smaller this year if some of the voters here decide to send him a vote of protest.
    11 10 01 rebel
    99.246.106.104
    Have to disagree a tad with John on Ottawa South. Hunt Club and Riverside Park are obviously not Alta Vista which is a Liberal stronghold (though taking the #8 bus down Alta Vista suggests more PC signs than he may think). There are generally more PC signs since May and way less Liberal signs as well. My home poll (#95) has no Liberal signs at all).
    At this point, I would suggest the Liberals are less than 10% ahead in the riding...
    11 09 29 John
    142.206.2.14
    Seriously. Anyone who thinks that McGuinty won't get more than the 40% of the vote needed to win this riding should really think twice.
    The Liberals have an effective and committed ground game. Dalton and his family is respected in the riding and works well with the community groups and businesses.
    This will be a walk.
    As for signs, not that they are an accurate predictor (lots of CPC signs out there in May, yet the ‘other McGuinty’ took Ottawa South easily), but I don't know what neighbourhood the previous poster was commenting on. The dominant private property signs (the ones that count) in the of the whole Alta Vista area are red and white. Take a drive down Pleasant Park, Kilborn, Saunderson, Delmar, Walkley, etc., etc. and you'll see what I mean.
    The Libs will be returned in this riding with 45ish percent of the vote.
    11 09 25 Pat N.
    69.165.138.55
    I have never seen so many lawn signs for a conservative candidate since Claude Bennett. I am shocked at how many neighbours who had a David McGuinty sign in the spring now have a blue Jason MacDonald sign. Almost every street in Hunt Club has a sea or blue and I think MacDonald is leading on locations on Alta Vista a traditional McGuinty stronghold.
    Even yesterday the Toronto Star had a poll showed that Dalton only had a slim lead over MacDonald. This one should be too close to call
    11 09 24 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    Premier Dad must be thankful for his kid bro' reinforcing the family fortress federally (and rather dramatically against the national trend, at that)--it's probably saved him from being the electoral version of one of those pratfalling goofball sitcom dads a la Peterson '90.
    11 09 19 rebel
    198.103.104.11
    Jason Macdonald is putting on a pretty strong campaign both in canvassing and signs. In my neighbourhood of Riverside Park he is outsigning McGuinty by a large margin (along the #87 bus-route) while McGuinty is edging Macdonald in Alta Vista (along the #8 bus-route). The NDP seems to be running about as strong as they did in the federal election but my impression is that Macdonald is running stronger than did the Cosnervatives in the federal campaign. A crucial issue will be hydro rates which are running sky-high in the single family-owned dwellings and the growing number of condominiums in the riding. Both local papers (the Citizen and Sun) have featured negative articles on the Liberals Green Plan and it simply has to be an important pocketbook issue. Not ready to make a prediction or margin yet...
    11 08 15 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    Its difficult to envision Mcguinty losing this riding , somewhat surprising he is running again as many other premiers not running again . BC , Alberta , Yukon , Manitoba and Newfoundland Premiers Gordon Campbell , Ed Stelmach, Dennis Fentie , Gary Doer and Danny Williams have all moved on yet Mcguinty going for a 3rd term. not convinced Jason Macdonald a great candidate for the pc's here they should of tried to get federal candidate Elie Salibi to run provincially or got Richard Raymond to run again at least one of them have some experience running in this challenging riding
    11 08 05 seasaw
    99.224.215.171
    Party leaders rarely lose seats, especially seats that they've held for 20+ years. This year though, things are a little different. Though Dalton still has a huge advantage, it may not be the cakewalk that everyone thinks he'll get. Remember he won a pretty close race a couple of elections ago. His popularity, his approval and his party's standings are at a longtime low. Unless things change, he may be in trouble. He's probably going to win but it'll probably be a close one.
    11 07 11
    99.246.96.202
    It will stay Liberal . McGuinty brothers are quite popular ,and have lots of experience in politics.And lots of friends.
    11 04 20 rebel
    207.236.147.118
    The PC candidate is Jason Macdonald, who was head of public affairs for Carleton University. A young, attractive and hard-working candidate with a campaign team endowed with some serious savvy. WAY too early for predictions but McGuinty is in a deep hole with the Ontario electorate and Jason is the best candidate the Conservatives have run in Ottawa South for some time.
    11 02 23 GV
    69.196.167.73
    Correction: Dalton McG won by 20 points. I still think that counts as a ?dominating win? in the context of the Ottawa region, considering the absence of Francophones in the riding.
    11 02 18 GV
    206.248.179.40
    I don't understand how this riding could ever be assessed as too close to call. Dalton McGuinty may be unpopular elsewhere, but Ottawa South is one of the Liberals' strongest seats anywhere, based on previous election results and demographics (polyglot and fairly low-income). Contrary to a previous post, McGuinty has had ‘dominating wins’ several times (most recently winning by 30 points in '07). This riding has never gone anything but Liberal, and that won't change anytime in the foreseeable future.
    11 02 15 Craig
    76.67.31.214
    Could McGuinty lose his own seat? I think it is definitely possible, especially if he is likely to lose the Premier's office and if a strong PC candidate emerges. He has never really had dominating wins here and it has been fairly close too federally. If he appears likely to win a third term as Premier though, he should get re-elected. Should be fairly close anyway.



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