Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Scarborough Southwest


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:20:30
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Berardinetti, Lorenzo

Blanco-Ruibal, Caroline

Budd, Bruce

Chopowick, Mike

McKim, Robin

Incumbent:
Lorenzo Berardinetti

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    * LORENZO BERARDINETTI
    15,11446.15%
    GARY CRAWFORD
    8,35925.53%
    JAY SARKAR
    5,93018.11%
    STEFAN DIXON
    2,6498.09%
    WIKTOR PAWEL BORKOWSKI
    3991.22%
    GEORGE DANCE
    2960.90%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1548745.21%
    1081431.57%
    613217.90%


  •  


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    11 10 04 Karen Nicholas
    99.254.221.179
    Scarborough Southwest is known for weird election results. Despite a clumsy Hudak campaign, there seems to be pockets of strong PC support in many parts of the riding. Most neighbours I've spoken too are trying to decide between Chopowick (PC) or Budd for the NDP. From what I've seen it looks like the NDP and PCs are the ones fighting it out to chip away at the Liberal vote. True, the PC's can finish anywhere from 3rd to 1st here, but I'll be contrarian and say photo-finish for Chopowick if enough Liberals stay home.
    11 10 04 J.O.
    99.245.102.89
    Tim Hudak's latest blunder will keep this riding in the Liberal fold. Hudak's defence of the ‘homophobic campaign flyer’ that is being distributed by his candidates in the GTA is damaging his fortunes as election day approaches. It has been proven that the Conservatives filled the flyer with misinformation to mislead voters and Hudak is being described as intolerant in many newspaper articles in large urban centres like Toronto. In close races, these types of mistakes can prove to be very costly in the final days leading up to the vote.
    11 10 04 SSW Realist
    67.68.43.128
    There is no doubt that the NDP have gone hard out in this Riding. However, I want to relay a story for those who think signs equals votes. My uncle had a Lorenzo Berardinetti sign on his fence. He called his Campaign Office to have it moved so he could see oncoming traffic. It was moved quickly. Guess who put a sign in the orginal spot without permission. You guessed it, the NDP. If their tactics is to push signs on people that do not want them, and then never come back to remove them, it is hardly being respectful. It just reminded my uncle and his neigbours who they will really be voting for on October 6th. Relying on false sign locations have doomed many campaigns.
    11 10 04 Dee Khay
    138.40.65.217
    I just read with some reservations the Leaflet that the Liberals dropped about the Quarry lands issue. Yes, Lorenzo was inactive. In fact he only attended the last meeting after he learnt that Michael Thompson and Gray Crawford were in attendance. For the most part of the last period, Lorenzo Berardinetti was no where to be seen in the riding. He is the ONLY politician that refuses to do any business in Scarborough Southwest. Yes, that is right. I must admit that he is in panic mode as his days are numbered. People need a representative that is active, engaged and does not speak from both sides of the mouth as Berardinetti does. His performance at the debate was a real disappointment. He is out of touch with the constituents and it's about time he is turfed. The Liberal did not listen to us as Liberals that this guy is about himself first not the people who sent him to Queen's Park. He spends 99% of his time at home. That where he belongs on Election Day!
    11 10 03 GaryHuntClub
    70.30.27.213
    The NDP is still winning this sign war big time. Their campaign seems confident and consistent. Andrea Horwath's rise in popularity may help them like Jack's popularity did federally. I get the feeling that Lorenzo is in a panic. I received a leaflet from the Liberals about the Quarry Lands that basically details Lorenzo's inaction on the issue. Voters in my neighbourhood are upset that the Liberals have let this development come the closest in ever has been to happening than ever before. Why they would send out a leaflet reminding voters how useless Lorenzo has been on stopping the Quarry Lands in beyond me. Smells like panic. Chopowicks campaign has fizzled a little, but expect right leaning Liberal voters to swing to that direction as they realize how ineffective the Liberal incumbent has been.
    11 10 03 Double J
    173.34.183.231
    The Tories are running a bad third in Toronto this time and may even finish third in Scarborough South West. The NDP will improve their numbers over 2007 but it won't be enough to catch Berardinetti as the Liberals sweep Scarborough.
    11 10 02 J.O.
    99.245.102.89
    The Conservative vote in Toronto suffered another blow when the right-wing Toronto Sun newspaper refused to endorse Tim Hudak. The Sun views his platform and campaign as a disappointment and this does not bode well for Conservative candidates across the 416 when they cannot rely on their traditional media support. This should remain a Liberal hold.
    11 10 01 Reality Check
    174.114.227.157
    Further to Dale's comments, Chopowick's campaign may be picking up a bit -but enough? The Ward 35 portion has a fairly high ethnic / recent immigrant vote - how will Hudak's comments re ?foreigners? and the jobs grants controversy and more recently on nixing school grants for foreign students play out there? And Ward 36 is fairly progressive-minded - people there are going to support a candidate who still talks about stopping the ?war on cars? and wants to build more highways? And proudly claims the PCs will build more nuclear plants? These are the type of comments and policy positions that will keep the PCs from taking this one. The PCs will, however, likely increase their support a bit over previous elections - largely at Liberal expense. This will help the NDP -no sign of their campaign slowing down plus good poll results lately. I'm staying with the NDP in a close three-way run.
    11 09 30 Dale Henderson
    70.52.222.163
    Hard to ever predict this riding. Signs don't count for much (Liberals had most signs on May 2nd, and finished 3rd here). Can't deny the Liberal Lorenzo still has a good chance, but voters seem to be warming up to first-timer Chopowick if you listen to the Tim Hortons chatter. Many were surprised by the NDP win here federally, still Budd has a chance too. If the PC's breakthrough provincially, then I say narrow win for Chopowick.
    11 09 29 Tony Jones
    99.230.244.3
    Not that it counts for much, but there are way more NDP signs on people's property than back in May for the federal election.
    11 09 28 Reality Check
    174.114.227.157
    Like the recent federal election - very close, all 3 major parties are in play with the NDP taking it. Reasons: Liberals - BAGGAGE. Locally, Berardinetti may live in the riding, but he just doesn't want to get acquainted with it. MIA is too polite - won't take on riding issues unless absolutely forced into it. Represents worst aspects of a career politician. Nothing positive to say about his own record so the only candidate distributing leaflets attacking other parties. Sad. As was his performance in the Rogers debate. Centrally, the HST and high hydro prices are hot issues hurting the Liberals. The PCs - evidence of a stronger campaign in the east portion, which you'd expect. But surprisingly weak campaign elsewhere. The more people see Hudak, the less they like of him. And Ford with his proposed cutbacks, Port Lands fiasco, etc. doesn't help. The NDP - obviously Horwath is not as well known, effective a campaigner as Layton. But she held her own in the debates. May not have Layton but, locally, this is made up for by a strong organization and resources. Best sign campaign in years by any party. I've had Budd come to the door, telephone calls, robocalls, even saw an ad in a bus shelter. The NDP is working hard for this one and the voters in SSW seem to be responding. Should be an interesting finish.
    11 09 28 ET
    142.106.56.171
    This should be a very close one. However, based on the sign wars alone, I think this riding is going New Democrat. Even during the orange wave, when New Democrat Dan Harris won Scarborough-Southwest, there weren't nearly so many NDP signs. Also, don't forget that this riding has a history with the NDP provincially (unlike federally). Former NDP speaker Warner was elected to represent this riding.
    11 09 28 Steve
    70.31.18.180
    If the PC and NDP did well in the debate last night I would say that would still be a close race. But my opinion is that McGuinty won the debate which strengthened the Liberal brand here. Chopowick is missing debates and Bruce is still getting acquainted with the riding! That being said Berardinetti should win by at least 1500 votes!
    11 09 27 Kathleen Johns
    65.92.109.92
    This will be a close race. People in Scarborough Southwest definitely want a change of government, will they choose NDP or PC? Mike Chopowick is a rookie, it's his first election, but appears to be young and energetic. The Liberals and NDP are also running strong campaigns here, but both with veteran career politicians. This riding is a switch riding, and the final vote will depend on the leaders debate. The PC idea for GPS tracking of high risk offenders is really turning out to be a local hot button issue.
    11 09 26 In SSW
    69.158.29.94
    Actually this one could go Conservative in the event of a good Eday. The last municipal election in SSW Ward 36, had three right of center candidates on the ballot: Crawford, Hogan and Gladney. The combination of these three vote tallies was well over 50%. In the north end of the riding (SSW Ward 35), Michelle Berardinetti won with 50% as the right leaning candidate. However, this one is still a toss up. The provincial Liberal brand is still quite strong in SSW and there is a Liberal incumbent with a good machine that is well funded behind him. The NDP have the luxury of having just won a Federal seat. I suspect this will attract some union workers for the next week to hit the doors. While the PC's will come close, there is no way they will be able to outspend the Liberals or out hustle the NDP. Expect this one to stay Liberal on October 6 by a few hundred votes.
    11 09 26 Edmund O'Connor
    75.119.226.149
    The issue the commenter raises around Budd is a complete non-issue. No-one I know has complained about that, but plenty have been complaining about Berardinetti sleeping on the job. Budd's campaign has capitalized on this by issuing a strongly-worded statement against the Quarry Lands development. Combine that with a candidate who has been knocking on doors constantly, and an NDP sign campaign the likes of which SSW has not seen for many years, leads me to give Budd the advantage.
    While the commenter takes crumbs of comfort from Ford's plunging unpopularity, and says that will affect the PC chances adversely, exactly whose wife is a clear Ford ally? Berardinetti's. Chopowick has never tied himself that closely to Ford, and if there's going to be any reckoning, it's Berardinetti who will pay the price.
    Talking of literature, the pieces that Berardinetti has been dropping seems to be standard Liberal boilerplate with just his name attached to it - a sure sign he hasn't got an original idea of how to appeal to voters.
    11 09 24
    67.68.40.252
    There are wildcard issues that are developing in this race. Bruce Budd's main piece addresses SSW voters as ‘Dear Neighbour’. In fact, some people have learned he lives in the heart of the Beaches. There are plenty who are not pleased with someoneone who would try to mis-represent themselves as actually being a legitimate ‘neighbour’. Second, those who are concerned about the Conservatives are throwing their support behind the Liberals to prevent any possibility of a PC Provincial Government. They have learned their lesson from the last Federal election and want no repeat. Lastly, the election of a rightwing Ford hugging/Quarry Land dodging (read: taking real responsibility) Councillor, who won with only 25% of the popular vote, is hardly a good sign for the Conservatives, especially with Ford diving in popularity.
    11 09 23 Edmund O'Connor
    206.248.178.1
    AD might want to take more than a glance when he looks again. Chopowick wishes he had what Gary Crawford has, and the PCs are flirting with third place with him. Meanwhile, Bruce Budd's campaign is reaching into all corners of the riding, with signs from Bridlegrove to Hunt Club, and strung all along Kennedy Road and other major roads. You sure didn't see that from the NDP campaign last time around. Berardinetti is extremely vulnerable, and seems to have been taken by surprise at the vigour of the Bruce Budd campaign. For example, Bruce Budd loudly banging the drum against the Quarry Lands development shames Lorenzo's years of inaction on the file.
    11 09 22 E14
    76.66.107.53
    Do not count the NDP out in this riding....I think that they have the resources now with an incumbent MP to run a thorough campaign that ensures that all voters hear their message...The race will come down to what party can get their vote out on October 6th!
    11 09 22 Not Non-Partisan
    174.94.2.190
    One thing appears clear to me. Lorenzo is running third, much like Simson in May. While Budd does have an impressive number of signs, I don't believe that he's hitting as many doors as Chopowick. Chopowick is doing better than Paranchothy did in May. That alone says it will be very, very close but I maintain that the election of Gary Crawford and the strong federal Con. showing here are no fluke.
    11 09 22 Toronto East Pundit
    134.117.254.250
    Anyone who is righting off the NDP campaign in this riding is in for a big shock on Oct 6th!
    This isn't 2007 anymore.
    1) The federal election here should tell you that
    2) The liberal brand and base is in tatters,
    3) there are a lot of people here that voted for the NDP for the first time in May - and they may make a habit of it.
    4) Andrea Horwath is polling at 35% in Toronto ... does anyone remember what Howard Hampton was polling at in 2007? It wasn't 35%
    5) The NDP is taking Scarborough a lot more seriously this time around. I don't think I've ever seen an NDP campaign on the ground that was as strong here. I live in a neoghbouring riding but my aunt said last election she didn't get a single NDP flyer, this time she's gotten three - and phone calls as well! And I've seen people out knocking on doors as I was driving home from work - FACE IT CAMPAIGNS MATTER
    6) And Scarborough Southwest doesn't exactly have the world's best MPP
    In fact, I'd say the race is already lost for the Libs here
    11 09 21 AD
    24.246.31.39
    I want to revise my earlier prediction actually. A second look shows this is more likely a LPO-PC race. I predict LPO win but it will be close.
    11 09 21 Edmund O'Connor
    70.27.1.219
    Lorenzo has been anonymous, even through this campaign - in terms of signs on Victoria Park Avenue, especially the southern end, it's one way traffic for the NDP.
    11 09 20
    67.68.40.252
    Looks like this race will be close. However, I will have to give the edge to Berardinetti. Momentum looks like it is building. It seems like the NDP has focused their signs on main streets to look strong and likely have their Union buddies putting them up and pushing them out. Dan Harris' win was a combination of circumstances and it seems like he is a pretty MIA MP. There are plenty in SSW that are already very disappointed and do not want another non-active NDP representative that likely lives outside the Riding. The PCs are trying to put a brave face on and pray that the NDP can split the vote.
    11 09 19 E17
    76.66.107.53
    I think this riding will be one to watch on election night...The Bruce Budd campaign has more than double the number of signs as the Dan Harris federal campaign in May and with the NDP trending upward in the polls, combined with the federal results, this is certainly a top tier prospect of an NDP pick-up after YSW and Davenport....This riding has finally returned to the three way race it hasn't been in quite some time!
    11 09 19 AD
    24.246.31.39
    This riding to me looks like the NDP are poised to secure a victory. With a consistent increase in support from their 2007 numbers in the majority of recent polls I see NDP support increasing enough for them to beat the LPO or the PCs. They seem to have good sign presence in the area and I think the election climate overall makes this riding one for the NDP's taking.
    11 09 18 GaryHuntClub
    74.12.89.107
    I haven't seen the NDP have so many signs in the riding for a very long time. It seems that the support for the NDP has carried over from the federal election. Not only that I have been past their campaign office many times and it always seems to be busy. My house has received foot canvassers and a few phone calls from the NDP as well. It seems they really have it together in this riding. The liberals seem to have traditional sign locations, but were quite slow off the hop. The Tory looks to have a lot of sign activity as well but their campaign office doesn't look nearly as active as Bruce Budd's. Likely a tight 3-way race, but given that the NDP took it federally, look for this support to carry over.
    11 09 18 SSWINING
    174.89.40.104
    I happened to be in various parts of the riding today and kept running or into Berardinetti volunteers! Not sure if it was just dumb luck he is blanketing the riding! I need to give the edge in the sign war to Berardinetti and so far it looks like his campaign is a well oiled machine. I think this is a hold for the libs!!!
    11 09 17 JR Toronto
    184.145.86.234
    Drove through the riding today along St. Clair and Bruce Budd NDP signs were everywhere outnumbering both Lib and PC signs.
    11 09 17 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    A rare case where it's a *Liberal* facing the collateral damage (through marriage) of being associated with Ford Nation--and not only is SSW now NDP federally, it has an even more illustrious NDP history provincially. Though Bruce Budd's a quirky canadate choice--then again, the acting federal leader's nearly 70, so they appreciate age and wisdom over in the NDP camp. But relative to endorsing/rejecting Ford Nation, it'd be exchanging-one's-poisons weird if the PCs were the net 3-way provincial beneficiaries where the NDP were federally. So, flip a three-sided coin, then.
    11 09 14 Bellweather
    76.66.105.26
    This riding has gone with the government since I can remember as far back as the 90's. Berardinetti is a household name in the riding and is very well known here. Though Bruce Budd means well, we lives out of the riding which weighs heavy on voters here had his hand slapped for using the memory of Jack Layton to gain support and money. Mike Chopowick is to closely alinged with the unpopular Hudak and was recently quoted at the Variety Village debate claiming he didn't recall any nurses and teachers loosing their jobs under Mike Harris.
    Berardinetti is a great campaign with a great team. My thought is Lorenzo takes it in a squeaker.
    11 09 11 Not Non-Partisan
    70.27.2.168
    This is likely to be the closest three-way race in the City if not the whole province. Eventually I think it will go Blue. While the Berardinetti dynasty is popular, Lorenzo has seemed tired on the constituency front. The Dippers won the fed race in May (but the Tories would have if they hadn't nominated a Tamil Tiger symp). NDP Bruce Budd is an old warhorse having run for Council in '82 in the Beach. Does he still have the mojo? Chopowick, the Tory is extremely energetic and has strong ties in the party and even the Libs respect him - he was former Liberal MP and City Councillor Norm Kelly's assistant.
    11 07 24 MF
    74.15.64.245
    I certainly wouldn't count out the NDP here, as they won this in the federal election, even if ‘Andrea Horwath is no Jack Layton.’ And Berardinetti is more entrenched here than Michelle Simson was, not to mention McGuinty is more entrenched than Ignatieff was, and I don't see the provincial Liberals going down to 11 seats province-wide. Things have changed in Scarborough, and this looks like a three-way race.
    11 06 27 Sandra Mangano
    74.12.65.83
    Scarborough Southwest is a bellweather riding, and often goes the same way as the rest of the province. Mike Chopowick is well known in the southern part of this riding, and has the reputation as a ‘local boy’, who lives in the area and was born in Scarborough. The Forum Research poll today put the PCs at 41%, and McGuinty at 26% (although only because the PC's have their platform out, and have been spreading their tax cut message agressively, the Liberals will get a boost when their platform is out). It will be closer in this riding, but Chopowick should edge out Berardinetti for a close win.
    11 05 18 binriso
    142.167.166.13
    For what its worth, this seat went NDP federally, 3-way race potential, and the NDP were a decent third here last time. Will likely be close whatever way it goes down.
    11 04 11 Ken Stackhouse
    99.254.220.15
    Chopowick vs. Berardinetti would be a fair contest, both have strong City Hall ties, and even though Chopowick is well known for his work at the Board of Trade & would run a stronger campaign, I think the Liberal lead here, & throughout Scarborough, is just too much for the PC's to close - I'd say razor-thin Liberal win in October.
    11 03 21 Smarto
    207.219.71.2
    LORENZO BERARDINETTI??? He is a backbencher going nowhere fast. While this will depend on the Provincial Campaign - Mike Chopowick (if nominated) will out-campaign Berardinetti
    11 03 16 Rahia Simathurai
    38.113.181.108
    I live in the riding. Ths PC's don't have a candidate yet, and I checked the PC Party website and Mike Chopowick is still listed as 3rd Vice President there. Without knowing if Chopowick and his team is in the race, this one is still ?Too close to call?.
    11 03 14 Pete Longstreet
    99.243.190.87
    Lorenzo Berardinetti is not to be underestimated. I live in this riding and I know that he has a machine in place. I saw that machine last fall when his wife, Michelle, was elected, destroying the Heaps machine. There is a large multicultural community in this riding and they vote Liberal.
    11 03 13 SSWPundit
    99.243.190.87
    Without a doubt this one goes to Berardinetti. His wife, Michelle Berardinetti, just became Councillor and took out an incumbent during the 2010 Municipal Election. They have a stronghold in the part of the Riding she represents. Given that she is now a Member of Ford's Executive it is very unlikely he or ‘Ford Nation’ will target this Riding - they have weaker Ridings to focus on. No help for the Conservatives here and the NDP voters have declined since the days of Stephen Lewis.
    11 03 10 Rick Saganiuk
    99.254.176.121
    I live in Scarboro just outside this riding, but Mike Chopowick used to be the President of the Scarborough Southwest PC's, and if he ends up being the PC candidate, as rumoured here on this forum, then the Liberals could suffer big losses against him, Chopowick was the architect of many local election victories for the PCs under Mike Harris.
    11 03 01 Smarto
    207.219.71.2
    The Rumour Mill in this riding is that Campaign legend - and lifelong Tory, Mike Chopowick, will be carrying the Tory Banner here. If that happens this could be a Tory Pickup. ON top of being a well known campaign strategist, Chopowick is a former Hudak Staffer at queens park and ran Norm Kelly's office at City Hall. He will work harder than any candidate in the province.
    11 02 28 GV
    99.241.119.76
    Sorry: I was misled regarding Gary Crawford's political career. Without an apparently nominated candidate for the Tories, I'm tentatively calling this riding for Berardinetti, until other candidates start to emerge.
    11 02 28 GV
    99.241.119.76
    Stephen Lewis' old riding sure has changed! What was once a provincial NDP stronghold (they even won it in '87 with the now-forgotten Richard Johnston) has become a fight between the Grits and Tories. Lorenzo Berardinetti is running again, but city councillor (and '07 candidate) Gary Crawford has been nominated for the PC party. The name recognition Crawford has gained on council should help him substantially, but I'm hesitant to call this seat for the Tories, given that the NDP vote (which is still significant) will most likely shift towards Berardinetti if there's a fear of a Tory government. This race will become clearer with time.



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