Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Scarborough Southwest

Prediction Changed
2009-09-05 11:11:00

Constituency Profile


Dixon, Stefan

Harris, Dan

Paranchothy, Gavan

Simson, Michelle

Michelle Simson

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • scarborough-centre (22/215 Polls)
  • scarborough-southwest (171/202 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 01 Chris H
    I think Michelle Simson could hold this riding for the Liberals. She won it by 12% over the CPC last time. The Tories are running a Sri Lankan candidate who has some association with the Tamil Tigers. This has appeared in the media and would seem to be reduce his wider appeal. The NDP Dan Harris is a good candidate who has run before in the riding (although not in 2008) but it seems unlikely that he can make up the difference with the Liberals. From an ethnic perspective, Harris and NDP may win some white voters in the riding, but demographics are changing the nature of Scarborough SW. It could be fairly close, but I suspect that the Libs will hold it.
    11 04 29 All Over the Map
    The Liberals could win less than 20 seats in Ontario and still get all five in Scarborough.
    11 04 28 Harry W
    I also watched the debate and had a different take on Michelle's absence. Arrogant, rather then confident. How any MP would pass up a televised debate is beyond me. I'm a long time resident and have definitely noticed a Ris in NDP signs and a decline in the Liberal signs compared to previous elections.
    But my prediction is more based on something strange I saw this afternoon. I was in line at the McDonalds at Midland and Danforth Rd. when the NDP candidate and another person came in to use the washrooms. When the candidate came out, 4 students (still in uniforms) chanted 'NDP' which got his attention then they all wanted photos. After chatting them up he got in line, where several more people started speaking to him. They ordered a coffee, sat down and then have more people including the manager come over to speak to him. I looked around while all this was going on and everyone's heads were following.
    Whatever the result though, I think its going to be a much closer election in this riding then in previous years.
    11 04 25 RPM
    After watching a televised debate that Michelle Simson did not attend, I can see why she might feel confident heading into election day. She is not facing any formidable competition here and aside from the most basic political talking points, her opponents had little to say. They all experienced great difficulty in explaining how they could make a real difference if elected and I got the feeling that the moderator knew this was making for boring television. Simson is safe here.
    11 04 10 Initial
    The Conservatives would win this riding if they ran a campaign like they did in 2004 with Heather Jewell. This Lib is no Tom Wappel campaign, but this 2011 PC team doesn't appear organized - even wrote Scarborough Southwest incorrectly in their Bluffs Monitor Full colour ad - not a good sign, literally. The Libs will take it again - without much effort. Maybe next time....
    11 04 07 ATGM
    The problem for the Conservatives here is the weakness of the NDP. To win, the Conservatives need the NDP to poll in the mid 20's and split the vote in the west end of the riding, while the Conservatives take most of the polls south of Kingston Road. It could happen but I'm not puting any money on it.
    11 04 04 MH
    The last time anyone but a Liberal won this riding or its predecessor, Scarborough West, was in 1984, when Reg Stackhouse won SW in the Mulroney landslide victory. In 1988 Mr. Stackhouse narrowly lost to Tom Wappel, but any hopes the Tories had of regaining the seat in 1993 were dashed by the destruction of the PC party by Reform. Since then the only halfway convincing challenge to the Liberals' hold was in 2008, when Stéphane Dion's unpopularity affected this riding as it did others in the Toronto area, and the Conservatives' Greg Crompton came within 4,600 votes of beating Michelle Simson. This year, with the Liberals running a better campaign nationally than in 2008, the Conservative vote in Scarborough Southwest may be expected to decline. An easy hold for the Liberals.
    11 04 05 Tony Ducey
    Following Simson's comments on Dean Del Mastro's weight, you would think the CPC would get a star candidate here, they didn't and the Liberals will win again.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    This is probably the weakest for the Liberals of the Scarborough ridings, but with the non-Liberal vote being pretty evenly split between the Tories and NDP, I don't see them facing too much of a challenge here.
    11 03 28 Not Non-Partisan
    The Tories have an attractive, articulate Tamil-Canadian candidate who is well-funded and endowed with many volunteers. The NDP also has a significant base here. In fact, this riding had a tradition of changing hands every election prior to the election of Tom Wappel. It's gonna be a cliffhanger.
    09 09 05 JB
    In 2008, an appointed Liberal candidate still won by over 12%, despite losing 6% of the party's support in Scar-SW. Incumbency and name recognition should work in Simson's favour. Easy urban Liberal Toronto call.
    09 09 04 A.S.
    Tom Wappel's replacement has thus far been nondescript opposition wallpaper--given who she's replaced, that may be a blessing. Interesting to note that the NDP in '08 nominated an ethno-Scarberian vizmin candidate...which led to the *Greens* assuming a solid 3rd place in the SWmost Birch Cliff/Fallingbrook ‘East Beach’ zone! (And the Liberals, usually weakest down there, rose nearly to par on Green Shift/carbon-tax coattails.) Still as ‘targetable’ from both ends as things get in Scarborough, though that's assuming a *lot* of grassroots Iggyphobia among ordinary Torontonians...

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