Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Toronto Centre


Prediction Changed
2013-02-16 14:35:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Abell, Martin

Alekseychuk, Lada

Daye, Mark

Falardeau, Judi

Garvie, Drew

Murray, Glen

Nurse, Robin

Rotenberg, Harvey

Sellar, Kate

Yazdanfar, Bahman

Incumbent:
Glen Murray

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Toronto Centre)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    * GLEN MURRAY
    2523654.94%
    CATHY CROWE
    1157125.19%
    MARTIN ABELL
    718615.64%
    MARK DAYE
    11232.44%
    JUDI FALARDEAU
    4410.96%
    CATHY HOLLIDAY
    1460.32%
    HARVEY ROTENBERG
    930.2%
    CHRISTOPHER JASON GOODWIN
    920.2%
    PHIL SARAZEN
    290.06%
    BAHMAN YAZDANFAR
    190.04%
    2007 Result:
    * GEORGE SMITHERMAN
    21,52247.85%
    PAMELA TAYLOR
    9,08420.20%
    SANDRA GONZALEZ
    8,46418.82%
    MIKE MCLEAN
    4,4129.81%
    MICHAEL GREEN
    6861.53%
    DANISH AHMED
    2590.58%
    JOHAN BOYDEN
    1960.44%
    PHILIP FERNANDEZ
    1910.42%
    GARY LEROUX
    1670.37%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1487551.92%
    648522.63%
    551019.23%


  •  


    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    14 05 27 Marco Ricci
    99.241.63.7
    Interesting to note that just as Eric Hoskins won by a larger margin than Michael Bryant in St. Paul's, Glen Murray won here by a larger margin than predecessor George Smitherman. The Liberals also retained this seat federally in 2011 under Bob Rae and won it by a larger margin under Chrystia Freeland in 2013. Easy Liberal hold, although it will be interesting to see what happens in this area when the riding gets divided up federally in 2015.
    14 05 24 A.S.
    99.233.52.111
    With the byelection and the Orange Crush behind it, 2011's Murray-Crowe rematch promised to be 'one to watch'--but w/Murray turning it into a 2-to-1 landslide, what's to watch? And now with a not-so-star NDP candidate and the Fordwath backlash, don't be shocked if we revert to the '00s TC status quo of the PCs barely ahead of the NDP.
    14 05 11 Jeff R.
    108.175.224.109
    Glen Murray may have no respect around the Cabinet table but he's the perfect candidate for a wealthy, urban and urbane riding like this one. THe question is whether he'll get 50 percent or not.
    14 05 07 Trinity-Spadina Progressive
    70.49.168.176
    The NDP has a good candidate in Kate Sellar but unfortunately for her: she has no chance. It's a very Liberal riding even in bad times, Glen Murray is well established here. Plus the large LGBT community will be especially inclined to vote for Kathleen Wynne for premier.
    14 05 04 monkey
    174.114.16.226
    Glen Murray is a progressive Liberal much like Rae and Freeland so that should work in his favour. Besides the Liberals win here but the simple fact they are on the only party who is competitive in all parts of the riding. Rosedale is very wealthy so won't go NDP, while Cabbagetown has a large gay community and Regent Park has a high number on social assistance so the PCs will get in the single digits here so even if the PCs take Rosedale and NDP Cabbagetown and Regent Park, their weaknesses in the other will ensure they don't win this. The Liberals by contrast will either win or at least come close in all parts of the riding. Bob Rae lost the majority of polls last federal election but won by being competitive in all sections.
    13 09 14
    198.200.89.110
    No change here. Murray is well known and works hard for his constituents. With Wynne's momentum in Toronto, this one remains liberal.
    13 02 27 seasaw
    99.225.1.213
    This riding should and will stay Liberal. I disagree with the previous poster about Wynne's appeal, she doesn't have much of an appeal regardless of what they drink. It is true that the Tories won a portion of the riding in 1995, with Al Leach's close victory, but that was when a lot of people identified the PC Party, as the Big Blue Machine and Bill Davis. Today's PC Party doesn't look like the old party. Glenn Murray is a bright, personable and dedicated politician, and is quite popular, he can win here under the Liberal banner, NDP banner, Independent, and may be even the PC banner. Wynne's appeal here may not be much, but it's a hell of a lot more than any appeal Hudak might have.
    13 02 14
    99.231.65.45
    With Wynne's appeal to the latte drinking downtown type, and Murray



    Navigate to Ontario 2014 Home | Regional Index | Submission

    Ontario Provincial Election - 2014
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Justice Quest Communications, 1999-2014 - Email Webmaster