Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Spadina-Fort York


Prediction Changed
2017-12-10 21:14:54
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Dong, Han

Yu, Iris


Incumbent(s):
    Trinity-Spadina
   Han Dong

   (93.15% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Toronto Centre
   Hon. Glen Murray

   (6.85% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):82480


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

16660 48.30%
6024 17.46%
9216 26.71%
1857 5.38%
OTHERS 739 2.14%
Total Transposed 34496

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Trinity-Spadina

14973
5540
8635
1721
Others666
Total Transposed31535

     Toronto Centre

1687
484
580
137
Others73
Total Transposed2961


Federal Election Result (2015):

Adam Vaughan
3014154.70%
Olivia Chow **
1504727.30%
Sabrina Zuniga
867315.70%
Sharon Danley
11372.10%
Michael Nicula PACT/PRCT
910.20%
Nick Lin
590.10%


 

21/12/2017 Gabbith
75.98.19.133
Another winnable downtown riding the NDP should have nominated a candidate in a year ago so they could knock doors. I wonder why they are holding out so long? Maybe waiting for Olivia Chow? This seat has become more Liberal demographically in recent times, so I give advantage to Dong.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
This is my former riding until I moved to BC 8 months ago. Han Dong unlike Rosaria Marchese or Olivia Chow or Adam Vaughan is actually a very good MPP and even invites all of his constituents into conference calls regularly, but like most urban ridings not sure how much impact candidate will have. The NDP could win this, but their strongest part in the north they have lost. Their best shot is to hope the PCs do well in the new high end condos as the PCs have no chance at winning here, but the better they do the more likely an NDP win is as any PC gains will come at the expense of the Liberals.
10/12/2017 ML
207.112.84.159
This could be one of the safest Liberal seats next election. The modern Liberal Party of Trudeau and Wynne speak the language of the upper-middle class, creative, and bourgeois-lefty types - condo dwellers



Navigate to Ontario 2018 Home | Regional Index | Submission

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.org
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2018 - Email Webmaster