Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

University-Rosedale


Prediction Changed
2017-12-06 00:03:22
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Bell, Jessica

Grant, Tim

Smith, Gillian


Incumbent(s):
    Trinity-Spadina
   Han Dong

   (68.73% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Toronto Centre
   Hon. Glen Murray

   (31.27% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):98605


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

19085 48.10%
7311 18.43%
9629 24.27%
2801 7.06%
OTHERS 852 2.15%
Total Transposed 39677

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Trinity-Spadina

11570
2474
8754
2295
Others633
Total Transposed25726

     Toronto Centre

7515
4837
875
506
Others220
Total Transposed13952


Federal Election Result (2015):

Chrystia Freeland **
2784949.80%
Jennifer Hollett
1598828.60%
Karim Jivraj
979017.50%
Nick Wright
16412.90%
Jesse Waslowski
2330.40%
Simon Luisi
1260.20%
Drew Garvie
1250.20%
David Berlin
1220.20%
Steve Rutchinski
510.10%


 

09/01/2018 Cabbagetown Red Tory
142.114.117.5
This will be a fascinating race. Here are the dynamics as I see them:
Libs: This is their core territory, their heartland, the internal organs of the Liberal party lie within U-R. If the party loses this seat it will be a serious rout province-wide (that could see them lose party status).
The Libs could lose this seat under two conditions: they take it for granted and end up with a seriously weak candidate, or the party melts down in the campaign, or both. Probably will be one of the safest OLP seats in 2018.
NDP: Have a great shot here. A strong, dynamic candidate could supplant the Liberals, especially if the Lib candidate is underwhelming and the PCs do well. This is fertile centre-left/centre ground and a smart, bold central NDP campaign and good candidate here could do very well.
PCs: Here's where things get particularly interesting. I have worked with the candidate in a past life. She is gregarious, attractive, accomplished, driven, and exceedingly confident. She is a moderate and very persuasive. U-R could host a moderate PC party MPP, but that brand has to be sold passionately and yet delicately to voters here who are extremely skeptical and naturally averse to the party. I believe Gillian is one of the few people who can actually seal the deal.
To have a shot at winning, she will need the following: ferocious work ethic (which she has), a moderate platform (which she has), a dedicated team (which she has), a weak Lib candidate (?), a weak Lib campaign (?), and a strong local NDP showing (which is very possible).
If Gillian pulls off a win here she should be dumped into cabinet. Full-stop.
08/01/2018 MF
69.159.31.101
The most highly educated riding in Ontario - nearly 1/3 of the population have post-graduate degrees. The PCs aren't in contention here, their ceiling isn't much higher than 20% of the vote. At best they can split the vote with the Liberals in Rosedale and still bomb in the rest of the riding. The NDP with the right type of campaign can win here - it does after all take in a lot of traditionally NDP territory from Trinity-Spadina - but they hit a wall east of Avenue Rd. And Andrea Horwath's people seem to have contempt for the progressive intelligentsia, which this riding is chock full of. If the Liberals have sufficient appeal to progressive voters, they win - given their ability to be competitive throughout the riding. Kathleen Wynne is tacking left and is the kind of Liberal Toronto NDP voters like. Still, leaving this without a prediction for now.
02/01/2018 MGK
64.229.247.58
I agree with the TCTC label for now. The new borders make it a presumptively but not safely Liberal riding. The Conservatives are too weak west of Avenue Rd. to be competitive, but can play spoiler. The NDP is too weak in Rosedale to have an easy time, but have the edge west of Avenue (not just among students -- also the professionals in the Annex, Seaton Village, Harbord Village, etc.) What to watch:
(1) Do the Liberals have a star candidate who can appear to soft NDP voters?
(2) The NDP-Liberal swing vote tends to mirror provincial polls -- a lot of NDP leaners are more anti-PC than pro-NDP, and will go Liberal if that looks like the way to stop Conservatives. If polls show a tight Liberal-PC race, expect a lot of 'strategic' votes to shore up the Liberal candidate. (I put 'strategic' in quotes because it isn't real strategic voting in a riding where the PCs are not credible contenders.) However, if the Liberals collapse and the NDP looks more promising on a provincial level (not likely but not out of the question) then the riding could go bright orange.
(3) How scary is a Patrick Brown-led PC party to anti-Conservative swing voters? He's trying to present a kinder gentler face, but a lot of progressives still see it as the Harris/Hudak party, and Brown as Hudak's natural successor. The NDP should hope he succeeds in moderating the party's image, both so he can siphon Red Tory votes in Rosedale, and be less alarming to soft NDP supporters.
21/12/2017 Gabbith
75.98.19.133
Leaning NDP, but rumour is that Councillor Wong-Tam may run for the Liberals here. Also won't discount the PC candidate, she's running like she thinks she can win, which can be a wild card in how the Liberal and Ndp vote play put. Will the PC eat away from the anti-Wynne vote, or will she split the centre to centre-right vote and give it to the NDP?
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
The PCs definitely will not win this. They may win the Rosedale portion, but will get slaughtered in the university portion as students today are overwhelmingly left wing (witness their massive support for Corbyn in the UK and Sanders in the US) the question is will they go Liberal with their promises of free pharmacare for those under 25 and free tuition for low income families or go NDP. A strong PC showing in Rosedale though will ensure this goes NDP as while the NDP will get clobbered in Rosedale any PC gains will come from the Liberals not NDP.
09/12/2017 KXS
69.157.99.23
Liberal nominal hold.
Kathleen Wynne appeals to upper middle class downtown progressives more than Andrea Horwath.
The previous poster mentioned how the PCs have a chance of picking this riding up if the vote splits. That's highly unlikely. The best they can do is 25% of the vote.
The demographics and political conditions that allowed the PCs under Bill Davis and even Mike Harris to win downtown Toronto seats are gone.
09/12/2017 ML
69.77.168.131
This will be a very interesting race. This is a new riding with a smorgasbord of neighbourhoods and income levels. The Liberals won the riding handedly in the last federal election on the Trudeau wave. I suspect their provincial counterparts won't have the same surge. The western end of the riding should be ripe for the NDP. However, I question if that support can extend east of Spadina among the million dollar homes and condos of Yorkdale, Summerhill and Rosedale.
04/12/2017
99.228.104.19
Toss up. Probably NDP but if the PCs sweep Rosedale and the ndp and libs split in other half of the riding, pcs could creep up the middle.



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