(68.73% of voters in new riding)
|| Toronto Centre
Hon. Glen Murray
(31.27% of voters in new riding)
|It's a battle between the Liberals and NDP here. This riding might have elected Christine Elliott, but this is not Ford country. |
The Liberals won by 24% in the Federal election, getting almost twice as many votes as the NDP, and while the NDP have momentum provincially, I don't think it will be enough.
The Liberals don't have as many signs up, but they've only had their candidate in place for three weeks, and they're gaining momentum rapidly.
With the Liberals imminent defeat provincially, ridings like University-Rosedale will have to decide if they want to completely extinguish the Liberal voice, or if they still want the Liberals being part of Ontario.
|I still think the Liberals can hold on here, though their numbers will be well down from 2014. The NDP obviously has strength west of the university, but I don't think it will be enough to cancel out the big Liberal leads in the eastern part of the riding. The PC candidate is running a strong campaign and is a serious contender - the Tories will pick up lots of votes in Yorkdale and Rosedale - but she is weighed down by her party's leader. I'd say Liberals in a close one - maybe 35-30-25 type numbers.|
||Strategic voter who can't sleep at night|
|I think my riding will be very close between Liberals and the NDP and I am seeing a troubling number of Green signs which might take support from the NDP this time. If the Liberals win this riding and get decimated, it's a gift to the PCs. If the NDP can take this one, it makes them closer to a long shot chance of a NDP minority government. It's tough to know how to advise people because normally this isn't a riding where 'strategic voting' matters all that much. I think it's fair to say that West of Bay Street, the Liberal MPP has been utterly invisible these past 4 years...not even a brochure.|
|University Rosedale has a lot of young voters who skew highly left-wing, and should end up supporting the more downscale neighbourhoods this time around. Residents are clearly tired of ruling Liberal government and look like they're choosing to turf them in favour of NDP.|
|Despite Rosedale being mixed in with most of the former riding of Trinity-Spadina, I think this riding could still go NDP.|
Although, Rosedale is a super-storng area for the Liberals, there are far more residents that live in the riding west of Yonge Street. These were the historically strong polls for the NDP both federally and provincially. Although, some of the riding is high in income, these were the type of voters that would also be very progressive and support the NDP.
Olivia Chow and Rosario Marchese would often get 50%+ in these portions of the riding on a strong year. It will be enough for an NDP win here as well.
|Campaign Research poll of Toronto has NDP and Liberals tied in University-Rosedale, with the PCs third, but within the margin of error.|
|NDP leading in Toronto 38% to the tories 34%..Liberals will lose almost every seat|
|Prediction models are showing the NDP starting to take double digit seats in Toronto. That would put this riding into play!|
|Way too early to call this for the Liberals. They might win, or they might come in third. But this should be one of the last seats called.|
1. This is one of the most highly educated ridings in the country (might be *the* most highly educated -- I genuinely have no way of knowing, but way up there). That leads to some interesting factors:
a. Likelier to be progressive, but not radically so (advantage Liberal)
b. Likelier to value individual candidates more (advantage PC, coming back to that)
c. Likelier to have more votes for tiny parties, which will likely get close to if not 10% in this riding, running a good Green candidate and the leader of the People's Choice Party, who has a lot of signs (advantage PC)
d. Likelier to have strategic voting (advantage NDP, as progressives try to stop Ford)
2. So about the PCs: Gillian Smith, the PC candidate, is running one hell of a campaign. With a very impressive background, if she somehow wins (which I doubt, but is not totally impossible, for reasons I'm coming back to), she will end up in cabinet. This riding may value that. Even more importantly, the PCs *are* investing non-trivial resources in this riding. Smith has painted Rosedale blue, and also seems to have a plurality of signs in The Annex. Most importantly, Rosedale leaves the PC 'ceiling' in this riding likely in the 28-35% range, distinguishing this riding from those immediately to its east and west. That *could* be enough given likely strong performances of both other main parties, as well as the strong performane of third parties. I know it sounds crazy to suggest the PCs could win a riding in downtown Toronto -- and I'm not predicting it -- but a perfect storm could emerge given: a) a higher ceiling than usual ceiling for PCs (St. Paul's is the only one south of Eglinton, between the Humber and Victoria Park, with a higher ceiling); and b) divided progressives (making this easier and more difficult at the same time for the PCs than St. Paul's, where the NDP are not relevant).
3. Having said that, the PC support vanishes west of St. George Street/south of Charles Street. The further west and further south you go in this riding, the more the orange dominates (see the border with Davenport on Ossington). The southern and western parts of this riding are akin to Davenport and the old Trinity--Spadina, where the Liberals and the NDP traditionally battle to the death. In an election where the Liberals are near-basement and the NDP are doing as well as they can possibly do, expect the NDP to carry these parts of the riding by comfortable margins. Jessica Bell isn't a particularly impressive candidate but is 'good enough'.
4. But then, the NDP support will be non-existent in Rosedale, and likely won't be much in the condos in/around Bloor Street in the more eastern parts of the riding. Which is why this is *generally* a safe Liberal seat, only becoming competitive in the face of 2011-federal-style collapses. Even in the case of a Liberal collapse, however, the Liberals will do 'well enough' accross the riding to take being second place in virtually every part of the riding to victory. Jo-Ann Davis is a stronger candidate than Jessica Bell but, as another poster has commented, a Catholic school trustee in a riding without many Catholics.
Ultimately, I have to predict that the NDP will take this because: a) the parts of the riding it will do very well in are more numerous than the PCs or Liberals; and b) I suspect many strategic votes will be cast for the NDP by the uber-interested progressives who may otherwise be inclined to vote Liberal. But I expect all three candidates to be within 10-12% of each other, if not closer.
|With the NDP unexpectedly appearing as the dark horse in this election and several points ahead of the Liberals, my view on this riding has changed to being a tight Liberal-NDP race. The NDP is definitely not winning Rosedale, but the rest of this seat could comfortably go NDP if Wynne really does collapse and Horwath comes at least a close second to Ford.|
|The wheels seem to be coming off the Liberal campaign as the ONDP is increasingly the 'strategic' anti-Ford choice even in downtown Toronto. Jessica Bell has been on the ground running for awhile now, while the Liberals took until last week to settle on a candidate. Someone with more profile could easily win this new riding for the OLP, but Jo-Ann Davis is not that as a Catholic School Board trustee in an riding with not a lot of Catholics. Bell seems to have the edge in activists and support from the central party. At this point I'm calling this lean-ONDP.|
|Pollara poll shows the NDP at 30%...THis riding will flip to the NDP|
|Nope. This has to be one of the safest Liberal seats in the province. The conservatives have no chance here and the NDP is too far behind, and Rosedale ain't voting NDP. The seats in Scarborough and North York (Guildwood, Scar. Southwest, Willowdale and all of Don valley) are far less secure than here.|
|The lIberal vote is bleeding to the NDP...The NDP candidate and the Star's endorsement of the NDP Financial platform will play well in this riding|
|This is exactly the kind of riding in terms of demographics that Wynne and the Liberals play well in, and went comfortably Liberal both federally and provincially in the last election cycle. Hard to see either the PCs or NDP picking this up.|
|Even if the Liberals crater into third place, I think they'll hold this seat. As others have pointed out, the Kathleen Wynne brand of upscale progressivism is tailor-made for highly-educated urban ridings like this one. Jo-Ann Davis, the local Catholic school trustee, is running for the Liberal nomination with some big names behind her (including Glen Murray); not sure if anyone else is in the race.|
The PC candidate, Gillian Smith, is the only kind of Tory who could pull off a victory in this kind of riding...moderate, female, professional, relatively young, running an aggressive and visible 'Red Tory' style of campaign. But whatever minimal shot she had at victory was ruined by Doug Ford winning the PC leadership. This is the kind of place that, with a lot of hard work and luck, might have been just barely open to an Elliott- or Mulroney-led PC party, but will run away screaming into the arms of the Liberals from Doug Ford.
The NDP theoretically have a shot due to the presence of a lot of the old Trinity-Spadina in this riding, and if Horwath somehow miraculously manages to put the NDP in majority territory as the main centre-left option in the province, this could be one to watch. but for now, I doubt it.
|NDP is not a factor here. Gillian Smith isn't running to be MPP, she's running for a job with the PC caucus. After her performance on TVO's Patrick Brown panel, that's the least they can offer her.|
|@Not Non Partisan: I do write off the PCs here. Gillian Smith may be one of those nice, urban-friendly, socially liberal-but-fiscally-conservative types but she is now Doug Ford's candidate. The Al Leach '95 comparison doesn't really hold up either, as he was running in what was a very different riding. 2/3 of the riding comes from the former riding of Trinity-Spadina; the PCs in '95 wouldn't have won the current boundaries of University-Rosedale.|
Jessica Bell of the NDP has a very active campaign and she's a great fit for the riding. But unfortunately for her Ford leading the PCs makes it harder for the NDP to win.
Still, it's remarkable there's no Liberal running here yet.
|I'm glad the bold predictions for the Tories in University-Rosedale were aired early; but they do serve to remind us how this is something of a perpendicularly-configured successor to the old St Andrew-St Patrick-style rich'n'poor stringcheese seats that kept the Grossman family in office for eons. It also explains why it might be a tougher sell for the NDP than they bargained on, unless the Dippers figure some kind of east-of-Avenue-Rd strategy pronto. Oh, even with DoFo as leader PC won't be battling Green for third, not as long as Rosedale's in there (notwithstanding Tim Grant's strengths)--but while I'll still offer NDP anointed-turf allowance, I still can't escape this feeling that seats like this are why the Wynne Liberals will never lose official party status...|
|I like MGK's reasoning and second it. LPO should be able to consolidate enough anti-Ford votes to secure this riding.|
|I would like to offer some food for thought, building on what MGK just mentioned. There certainly is a safe progressive alternative to Ford shaping up in provincial polling trends. A palpable 'anyone but Wynne' sentiment has long begun to solidify, with an 81% Change In Government indicator being released in a Mainstreet poll this past week. In addition, a Forum poll has indicated that the NDP are in second place, leading the OLP by more than the margin of error. I would beg to differ with the assumption that Red Tories would even park their votes with tthe OLP this time around in places like Rosedale and the Annex. Some of those votes will go to the Tories, and some may flank to the NDP on the basis that Wynne is perceived as weak on finance and the economy.|
|Referring to my earlier post about what the NDP needs to win: it just got harder. Doug Ford is not the type of leader to lure Rosedale's erstwhile Red Tories away from the Liberals, and is very much the man to scare red-orange swing votes to the 'safe' Liberals. (Note that Olivia Chow, running for mayor, did not even carry the ward she used to represent -- no matter how many good things people had to say about her, too many of them ran to Tory as the anybody-but-Ford vote.)|
|While its this turf is historically a Lib-NDP dogfight, I believe that it will be potentially a three-way race. Inevitably, the PC vote will be up and the Liberal vote down. Without a Liberal candidate 100 days from voting it seems to me that they are either a) holding out for a star, or b) in despair. The NDP's Bell and Tory's Smith are quality contestants. Don't assume that the PC's can't do well here. Everybody wrote-off Al Leach in '95 but he won then because of the tight split. It clearly is possible.|
|This riding will be a close contest between the Liberals and NDP, however considering the anti-Liberal sentiment here in Ontario I believe it slightly leans NDP. The NDP candidate in this riding Jessica Bell is very impressive, I have met her in person and she is an excellent choice. Considering the liberals have yet to nominate their candidate and Jessica Bell and the NDP have been out there canvassing and going to events almost everyday, I believe it gives them a time advantage. We must also remember there is no liberal incumbent here and it is a new riding so it owes the Liberals and Kathleen Wyner no allegiance. If the NDP does well in June, winning this riding will be one of the earliest indications.|
|The NDP are always mentioned and frequently recruit star candidates, but rarely succeed in winning here. This extremely well educated riding (has more post-graduates than many ridings have graduates!) is also a quintessential 'creative class' riding, a demographic that fits Kathleen Wynne very well. |
Combined with the minimum wage hike, Pharmacare and tuition policies, the Liberals have a policy basically made for this area. Hence, U-R should easily stay red. The PC's are irrelevant here as long as any sense of social conservatism remains (in spite of Brown's attempts to turn them away) as such policies have no traction at all here. The NDP should finish a distant second, while the PC's may finish fourth behind the Greens.
||Cabbagetown Red Tory|
|This will be a fascinating race. Here are the dynamics as I see them:|
Libs: This is their core territory, their heartland, the internal organs of the Liberal party lie within U-R. If the party loses this seat it will be a serious rout province-wide (that could see them lose party status).
The Libs could lose this seat under two conditions: they take it for granted and end up with a seriously weak candidate, or the party melts down in the campaign, or both. Probably will be one of the safest OLP seats in 2018.
NDP: Have a great shot here. A strong, dynamic candidate could supplant the Liberals, especially if the Lib candidate is underwhelming and the PCs do well. This is fertile centre-left/centre ground and a smart, bold central NDP campaign and good candidate here could do very well.
PCs: Here's where things get particularly interesting. I have worked with the candidate in a past life. She is gregarious, attractive, accomplished, driven, and exceedingly confident. She is a moderate and very persuasive. U-R could host a moderate PC party MPP, but that brand has to be sold passionately and yet delicately to voters here who are extremely skeptical and naturally averse to the party. I believe Gillian is one of the few people who can actually seal the deal.
To have a shot at winning, she will need the following: ferocious work ethic (which she has), a moderate platform (which she has), a dedicated team (which she has), a weak Lib candidate (?), a weak Lib campaign (?), and a strong local NDP showing (which is very possible).
If Gillian pulls off a win here she should be dumped into cabinet. Full-stop.
|The most highly educated riding in Ontario - nearly 1/3 of the population have post-graduate degrees. The PCs aren't in contention here, their ceiling isn't much higher than 20% of the vote. At best they can split the vote with the Liberals in Rosedale and still bomb in the rest of the riding. The NDP with the right type of campaign can win here - it does after all take in a lot of traditionally NDP territory from Trinity-Spadina - but they hit a wall east of Avenue Rd. And Andrea Horwath's people seem to have contempt for the progressive intelligentsia, which this riding is chock full of. If the Liberals have sufficient appeal to progressive voters, they win - given their ability to be competitive throughout the riding. Kathleen Wynne is tacking left and is the kind of Liberal Toronto NDP voters like. Still, leaving this without a prediction for now.|
|I agree with the TCTC label for now. The new borders make it a presumptively but not safely Liberal riding. The Conservatives are too weak west of Avenue Rd. to be competitive, but can play spoiler. The NDP is too weak in Rosedale to have an easy time, but have the edge west of Avenue (not just among students -- also the professionals in the Annex, Seaton Village, Harbord Village, etc.) What to watch:|
(1) Do the Liberals have a star candidate who can appear to soft NDP voters?
(2) The NDP-Liberal swing vote tends to mirror provincial polls -- a lot of NDP leaners are more anti-PC than pro-NDP, and will go Liberal if that looks like the way to stop Conservatives. If polls show a tight Liberal-PC race, expect a lot of 'strategic' votes to shore up the Liberal candidate. (I put 'strategic' in quotes because it isn't real strategic voting in a riding where the PCs are not credible contenders.) However, if the Liberals collapse and the NDP looks more promising on a provincial level (not likely but not out of the question) then the riding could go bright orange.
(3) How scary is a Patrick Brown-led PC party to anti-Conservative swing voters? He's trying to present a kinder gentler face, but a lot of progressives still see it as the Harris/Hudak party, and Brown as Hudak's natural successor. The NDP should hope he succeeds in moderating the party's image, both so he can siphon Red Tory votes in Rosedale, and be less alarming to soft NDP supporters.
|Leaning NDP, but rumour is that Councillor Wong-Tam may run for the Liberals here. Also won't discount the PC candidate, she's running like she thinks she can win, which can be a wild card in how the Liberal and Ndp vote play put. Will the PC eat away from the anti-Wynne vote, or will she split the centre to centre-right vote and give it to the NDP?|
|The PCs definitely will not win this. They may win the Rosedale portion, but will get slaughtered in the university portion as students today are overwhelmingly left wing (witness their massive support for Corbyn in the UK and Sanders in the US) the question is will they go Liberal with their promises of free pharmacare for those under 25 and free tuition for low income families or go NDP. A strong PC showing in Rosedale though will ensure this goes NDP as while the NDP will get clobbered in Rosedale any PC gains will come from the Liberals not NDP.|
|Liberal nominal hold.|
Kathleen Wynne appeals to upper middle class downtown progressives more than Andrea Horwath.
The previous poster mentioned how the PCs have a chance of picking this riding up if the vote splits. That's highly unlikely. The best they can do is 25% of the vote.
The demographics and political conditions that allowed the PCs under Bill Davis and even Mike Harris to win downtown Toronto seats are gone.
|This will be a very interesting race. This is a new riding with a smorgasbord of neighbourhoods and income levels. The Liberals won the riding handedly in the last federal election on the Trudeau wave. I suspect their provincial counterparts won't have the same surge. The western end of the riding should be ripe for the NDP. However, I question if that support can extend east of Spadina among the million dollar homes and condos of Yorkdale, Summerhill and Rosedale.|
|Toss up. Probably NDP but if the PCs sweep Rosedale and the ndp and libs split in other half of the riding, pcs could creep up the middle.|