Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Don Valley North


Prediction Changed
2017-12-16 20:16:06
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Carroll, Shelley

Ke, Vincent


Incumbent(s):
    Don Valley East
   Hon Michael Coteau

   (52.60% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Willowdale
   Hon David Zimmer

   (47.40% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):103073


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

18001 52.60%
11183 32.68%
3746 10.95%
1167 3.41%
OTHERS 122 0.36%
Total Transposed 34218

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Willowdale

9043
6595
1684
622
Total Transposed17944

     Don Valley East

8958
4588
2062
544
Others122
Total Transposed16274


Federal Election Result (2015):

Geng Tan
2349451.40%
Joe Daniel **
1727937.80%
Akil Sadikali
38968.50%
Caroline Brown
10182.20%


 

03/01/2018 Dr. Bear
70.55.206.58
If one of the Don Valley ridings goes PC, this is the one that will flip. For now, I'm going to say TCTC until we see the full platforms and see if Patrick Brown can appeal to Toronto voters in ways his predecessors couldn't.
21/12/2017 Gabbith
75.98.19.133
I think the recent federal Scarborough Agincourt by election and 2016's by election in Scarborough Rouge River showcase the inroads right wing parties have made with GTA orientals. In the 2015 federal election the CPC still got close to 40% despite running a disaster of a candidate. I would so far as to argue that if the PCs win one seat in Toronto, it will be this one.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
As an affluent 416 suburb a lot will depend on whether the PCs breakthrough into the 416 or the Liberals continue to dominate it. Earlier polls suggested this would go PC, but now they suggest the Liberals might hold this. At this point too early to tell as a lot can happen between now and election day so anything from a narrow PC win to a comfortable Liberal win is possible.



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