Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Pickering-Uxbridge


Prediction Changed
2018-01-14 23:44:53
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Bethlenfalvy, Peter

Narraway, Adam


Incumbent(s):
    Pickering-Scarborough East
   Hon Tracy MacCharles

   (55.88% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Ajax-Pickering
   Joe Dickson

   (25.26% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Durham
   Granville Anderson

   (18.86% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):109344


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

21425 47.17%
14815 32.62%
6742 14.84%
1921 4.23%
OTHERS 515 1.13%
Total Transposed 45418

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Pickering-Scarborough East

12697
7497
3694
1070
Others363
Total Transposed25321

     Ajax-Pickering

5426
3526
1730
415
Others87
Total Transposed11183

     Durham

3302
3792
1318
437
Others65
Total Transposed8915


Federal Election Result (2015):

Jennifer O'Connell
2975750.30%
Corneliu Chisu **
2259138.20%
Pamela Downward
54469.20%
Anthony Jordan Navarro
13652.30%


 

05/01/2018 in the know
208.124.203.242
the lack of a Liberal candidate in a riding held by a Liberal cabinet minister is telling....No one wants to run for them......Tory big win is my prediction.....PC candidate appears everywhere for the last year.
18/12/2017 Dr. Bear
75.119.248.107
A call for the PCs? No, I can't get behind that. This may be a new riding but in 2014, the contributing ridings each gave the Liberals over 50%. And while it's true that Tracy MacCharles has not yet been selected as Liberal candidate (it's unclear if she is even running), there is bound to be significant residual Liberal support. Also, Wynne and co. may be way down in the polls now, but don't discount them out six months before the vote. I suspect that once the campaign begins, the polls will tighten. Too close to call.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
Leans PC at the moment but could go either way. The Liberals tend to do well in the southern parts that are more suburban whereas the northern parts which are more rural (albeit with fewer people) tend to go heavily PC. If the PCs can run up the margins in the rural portions (which they likely will) and keep it close or narrowly win the suburban parts they should take this. But if the Liberals win the suburban parts by a decent margin that should be enough to cancel out the PC margins in the rural parts.



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