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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke


Prediction Changed
2017-12-07 21:05:30
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 


Incumbent(s):
    Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke
   John Yakabuski

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):103495


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

7897 19.11%
25241 61.07%
5978 14.46%
1337 3.23%
OTHERS 881 2.13%
Total Transposed 41334

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke

7897
25241
5978
1337
Others881
Total Transposed41334


Federal Election Result (2015):

Cheryl Gallant **
2619545.80%
Jeff Lehoux
1866632.70%
Hector Clouthier
630011.00%
Dan McCarthy
48938.60%
Stefan Klietsch
11051.90%


 

16/01/2018 Pure Whig
199.243.125.2
Despite historical commentary to the contrary this was never a safe Liberal Seat. Ever.
The old Renfrew North riding trended Conservative for most of its history except in times of strong Liberal surges such as the election that brought Conway to office in 1975. Credit must be given to Conway for keeping a strong rein on it until his retirement.
I remain at a loss why people forget that provincially Renfrew South was Tory Blue from for all but two years from 1943-1999 (the two years being Quilty's by-election win before being toppled by Yak senior in the 60's). Federally, Renfrew South was Conservative from 1957-68, and again from 1972-1993. There has always been a strong bastion of Tory support here. When the two old ridings were combined it naturally made the path to Conservative victories easier.
27/12/2017 R.O.
24.146.17.189
This is a fairly rural riding but not technically included in northern ontario. John Yakabuski has been mpp since 2003 and been re elected in every election since and seems to be well liked here.
2017-12-26 Craig
24.213.108.184
Safest Conservative seat in Ontario today, even though it has a long Liberal history. Even with a much stronger national result, a very strong local Liberal candidate AND a split vote (Hec Clouthier, despite being a former Liberal, was well to the right of today's party and mostly taking Conservative votes), they couldn't come particularly close in 2015 federally. That should mean an easy win for John Yakabuski, likely with over 60% of the vote and possibly over 70%.
However, there is one possible wild card. If the Trillium Party wanted to make a serious run and find a strong candidate, this is probably the most likely riding where they could run strong, particularly given that the PC platform is more liberal than the mainstream in this riding. Given the weakness of the Liberals and NDP here, they could actually do it without worrying about vote splitting either. However, there is no evidence such is happening.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
This was once a safe Liberal riding, but today is one of the safest if not safest PC riding in the province. John Yabusuki is also very popular personally which is an added bonus and even the controversial and normally invisible Cheryl Gallant has little trouble winning this federally so easy PC hold.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
Once a reliable Liberal riding, now one of the safest PC ridings in the province. John Yabusaki is also very popular personally and even Cheryl Gallant federally who is fairly nutty somes to hav no trouble winning this. So easy PC win, only question is does this continue to hold the title of the largest PC win in the province percentage wise or lose this title.
10/12/2017 J.B.
216.211.115.100
Yet another riding (like Parry Sound-Muskoka) that should not be considered as a part of northern Ontario, this riding will remain in the PC column.
06/12/2017 Kathy
99.228.107.135
PCs had their largest margin of victory here in 2014. Safe seat.



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