Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Scarborough Centre


Prediction Changed
2017-12-14 21:36:49
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Mellor, Chris

Parani, Thenusha


Incumbent(s):
    Scarborough Centre
   Hon Brad Duguid

   (91.82% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Scarborough Southwest
   Lorenzo Berardinetti

   (8.18% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):108826


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

18648 55.19%
7093 20.99%
6967 20.62%
1046 3.10%
OTHERS 35 0.10%
Total Transposed 33789

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Scarborough Centre

17334
6580
6414
976
Others0
Total Transposed31304

     Scarborough Southwest

1314
513
553
70
Others35
Total Transposed2485


Federal Election Result (2015):

Salma Zahid
2275350.50%
Roxanne James **
1470532.70%
Alex Wilson
522711.60%
Katerina Androutsos
13843.10%
Lindsay Thompson
9602.10%


 

03/01/2018 Dr. Bear
70.55.206.58
I'm going to give a tentative nod to the Liberals for this riding. Both federally and provincially this has gone for team red, only going blue in 2011 because of a massive vote split between the Liberals and NDP. I do not see Andrea Horwarth appealing to the Toronto urban left in the same way that Jack Layton did. That said, Patrick Brown does seem to be offering a Toronto-centric platform that could appeal to Scarborough voters. If that's the case, I may re-evaluate my prediction closer to e-day.
2017-12-24 Teddy Boragina
157.52.13.39
This was the most Liberal-friendly riding in Scarborough after the transition, and given the NDP's strength here, means it was also won with the largest lead. It is extraordinarily unlikely at this time that the PC's will win here.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
Had Brad Duguid stayed on, I believe the Liberals would have held this, but without him makes it somewhat more vulnerable but still leans Liberal. If the Liberals rebound in the polls as some suggest should easily hold this, but if they tank further will probably go PC. That being said in 2011 federally the Tories only got 36% of the popular vote thus there will need to be strong splits to win this and the NDP so far has been pretty invisible.



Navigate to Ontario 2018 Home | Regional Index | Submission

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.org
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2018 - Email Webmaster