Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Scarborough Centre

Prediction Changed
2018-06-05 23:55:00

Constituency Profile









    Scarborough Centre
   Hon Brad Duguid

   (91.82% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Scarborough Southwest
   Lorenzo Berardinetti

   (8.18% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):108826

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

18648 55.19%
7093 20.99%
6967 20.62%
1046 3.10%
OTHERS 35 0.10%
Total Transposed 33789

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Scarborough Centre

Total Transposed31304

     Scarborough Southwest

Total Transposed2485

Federal Election Result (2015):

Salma Zahid
Roxanne James **
Alex Wilson
Katerina Androutsos
Lindsay Thompson


05/06/2018 Robert MacLeod
Based on the signs and the mood of the people, this riding has a good chance of going NDP.
03/06/2018 Anthony
I can tell you as a resident that lives in this riding that it is a three way race. That being from knocking on doors for some time I would give the slight edge to the NDP in terms of who people are saying they are voting for. A lot
of the young people and first time voters I know in this riding are breaking to the NDP.
02/06/2018 Dr. Bear
While I was originally leaning towards a PC win because of vote splitting (a la Roxanne James in 2011), I am now far less certain. Wynne has practically conceded defeat and is now in save-the-furniture mode. She'll be focusing on saving incumbent Liberals and I don't thin Scarborough is going to be a priority. That will allow the NDP to scoop up progressive votes. Also, looking at prediction models, they show the PCs third in this riding.
18/05/2018 The Jackal
This is will go PC via a Liberal-NDP vote split on the centre-left.
14/05/2018 Innocent bystander
Mainstreet's Toronto-only poll showed the Liberals down 19 points from 2014, and the PCs up 16 in Scarborough.
35 point swing in a riding the Liberals won by 34.2? Too close to call.
27/04/2018 Joe
The current political climate seems to portend a close PC victory. And yes sure the Liberals have a good base here, but things can, do, and have already changed
22/04/2018 BillyBoy
Boy, the submissions on here are sure partisan.... The outcome here might rest on how many votes Trillium's Chris Mellor can take away from the PC's Christina Mitas. Although no incumbent, the Liberals will be tough as well, with the growing Muslim population in Centre.
05/04/2018 Kyle H
Roxanne James only won this riding in a 'walk' if you consider walks to be running screaming down the streets by two bulldogs you escaped only because they turned on another halfway through.
That being said, this could turn away from the Duguid-less Libs, certainly. It would just take a repeat of the 2011 three-way to do so, even then I doubt whatever party does win it could hold onto it for long. The Liberal candidate is alright - former staffer, connections in the community, etc. - though accusations of some skullduggery from PC supporters probably throws some of that into doubt. The candidate Shafiq beat out would've been better, then again this riding turfed an incumbent in 2011 so who knows.
21/03/2018 Not Non-Partisan
Do you think that Duguid would leave if this was winnable for the Libs? No way. The Tories will win this in a walk. Much like Roxanne James in the Harper majority.
18/03/2018 A.S.
Notwithstanding that the seat went FedCon in 2011, other than in the most generic ScarBlueSweep terms I don't see Duguid's retirement as necessarily such a blow for the SC Liberals--the Tory-NDP opposition splits in 2011 and 2014 suggest what *should* be a norm. But yeah, subways subways subways.
18/01/2018 R.O.
Considering the fact longtime mpp Brad Duguid is retiring , the race here is more unpredictable and likely too close to call . the riding has been held by the ndp and pc
03/01/2018 Dr. Bear
I'm going to give a tentative nod to the Liberals for this riding. Both federally and provincially this has gone for team red, only going blue in 2011 because of a massive vote split between the Liberals and NDP. I do not see Andrea Horwarth appealing to the Toronto urban left in the same way that Jack Layton did. That said, Patrick Brown does seem to be offering a Toronto-centric platform that could appeal to Scarborough voters. If that's the case, I may re-evaluate my prediction closer to e-day.
2017-12-24 Teddy Boragina
This was the most Liberal-friendly riding in Scarborough after the transition, and given the NDP's strength here, means it was also won with the largest lead. It is extraordinarily unlikely at this time that the PC's will win here.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
Had Brad Duguid stayed on, I believe the Liberals would have held this, but without him makes it somewhat more vulnerable but still leans Liberal. If the Liberals rebound in the polls as some suggest should easily hold this, but if they tank further will probably go PC. That being said in 2011 federally the Tories only got 36% of the popular vote thus there will need to be strong splits to win this and the NDP so far has been pretty invisible.

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