Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Scarborough Southwest


Prediction Changed
2017-12-16 20:21:40
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Berardinetti, Lorenzo

Lacuna, Carlos


Incumbent(s):
    Scarborough Southwest
   Lorenzo Berardinetti

   (93.49% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Scarborough-Guildwood
   Hon Mitzie Hunter

   (6.51% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):106733


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

18123 49.93%
7611 20.97%
8555 23.57%
1476 4.07%
OTHERS 530 1.46%
Total Transposed 36295

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Scarborough Southwest

17106
7060
8121
1423
Others485
Total Transposed34195

     Scarborough-Guildwood

1018
550
434
53
Others44
Total Transposed2100


Federal Election Result (2015):

Bill Blair
2558652.50%
Dan Harris **
1157423.70%
Roshan Nallaratnam
1034721.20%
Tommy Taylor
12592.60%


 

15/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
If the NDP were to win any Scarborough ridings it would be this one, but at this point they seem to be largely invisible. PCs seem to have a ceiling of 30% so may have a strong second place showing but unlikely to win. So Liberal hold, even if they lose badly provincially.



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