Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Scarborough Southwest

Prediction Changed
2018-05-25 10:37:00

Constituency Profile











    Scarborough Southwest
   Lorenzo Berardinetti

   (93.49% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
   Hon Mitzie Hunter

   (6.51% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):106733

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

18123 49.93%
7611 20.97%
8555 23.57%
1476 4.07%
OTHERS 530 1.46%
Total Transposed 36295

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Scarborough Southwest

Total Transposed34195


Total Transposed2100

Federal Election Result (2015):

Bill Blair
Dan Harris **
Roshan Nallaratnam
Tommy Taylor


05/06/2018 Not No -Partisan
This so much closer than otherwise articulated here. On thing is for sure Berardinetti is out of it. Begin has a strong campaign but Ellis is noticeably closer in the past week. He surprisingly strong east of Vic Park, south of St Clair, not exactly a Tory hotbed. And the hands down winner south of Kingston Road. If not Tory, then too close to call.
03/06/2018 MF
This is the most traditionally NDP-friendly riding in Scarborough and with the Liberal collapse I expect them to take this.
02/06/2018 Dr. Bear
Prediction models are showing the NDP leading the PCs in this riding, and with Wynne effectively claiming defeat, I think the NDP will get a boost, minimizing vote splitting.
02/06/2018 Someone from the heavens
Scarborough Southwest has Bill Blair as it's MP, before that was NDP Dan Harris. It's next door to NDP Beaches-East York.
As much as people think just because the PC candidate is a cop, Bill Blair being a former cop. That won't help. The community has changed and it's left leaning. Most are Centre-Left. Family in the riding had more knocks on by NDP and seen their volunteers campaign more than other parties.
29/05/2018 Anthony
Despite what people have been saying about Ford heavily winning in Scarborough in the mayoral race, one of Scarborough Southwest
26/05/2018 The Hedonist
Going to call this one for the PCs for a few reasons:
- Campaign Research poll of Toronto has PCs up 11 on the NDP in Scarborough Southwest, with the Liberals a distant third
- Ford carried Scarborough during Municipal election vs Tory; Scarborough HEAVILY backed Rob during the 2010 election, FordNation is Toronto Suburbs, and Scarborough Southwest fits the mould.
- Vote split on left should benefit PC
5/22/2018 Joe
This is a close race between PC party and NDP with Liberals far behind, but it looks like Ford's popularity here should be just enough to carry them to victory once again.
22/05/2018 KXS
Not sure why this one is considered a Liberal hold.
The NDP is polling around 30-35% province wide and around 27-30% in the 416. That should be enough to pick this one up. NDP candidate Doly Begum has a stronger local organization than most NDP non-incumbents.
This is probably the weakest area for the PCs in Scarborough.
21/05/2018 Innocent bystander
Campaign Research poll of Toronto has PCs up 11 on the NDP in Scarborough Southwest, with the Liberals a distant third.
19/05/2018 Christopher L
A real three way race! Definitely a part of Scarborough that is open to voting NDP (2011 federal campaign), and with pockets of Tory strength too. But I actually think Berardinetti should still be able to come up the middle to hold on. Could be a 35-30-30 type result.
5/17/2018 Not Non-Partisan
Gary Ellis is a super candidate for the Tories. Much as Bill Blair, the cop won here, Gary Ellis, the cop, will win here. He has a terrific resume while running against a lacklustre incumbent. Combined with a real trend, with Lib leakage breaking over 60% to Ford Nation, Ellis is very likely be the new MPP.
14/05/2018 scarbdipper
Have a look at the residential side streets where you will see Doly Begum signs springing up like dandelions in Scarborough Southwest.
Signs on major thoroughfares don't count as much as all candidates tend to target streets with heavy traffic in the sign war.
With the NDP surging across the province, a strong local campaign and with this riding being in an older part of Scarborough and having a bit more in common with inner city politics, don't be surprised if SSW is painted orange on June 7th.
14/05/2018 Innocent bystander
Mainstreet's Toronto-only poll showed the Liberals down 19 points from 2014, and the PCs up 16 in Scarborough.
Too close to call, but not NDP; their support in Scarborough is almost flat compared to 2014.
11/05/2018 Natasha
Berardinetti is well known and has a lot of experience in this area. Would be surprised if it doesn't go to him again.
09/05/2018 Jeff Phillips
The NDP Candidate Doly Begum has a very good chance to win the riding, the Liberals are in free fall and I strongly believe the voters want a change in the riding. Doug Ford and the Conservatives want to cut cut and cut.
09/05/2018 The Lobster
This should definitely be marked TCTC. Berardinetti is unremarkable but he has enough of a base here -- at City Hall before Queen's Park -- so that he's not a liability. He's the second likeliest Liberal (after Hunter) to survive in Scarborough.
More problematic is the fact that this will not be among the last Liberal seats standing if they fall down to single digits, and it looks like there will be very very few Liberals left standing, and they may entirely be left in the downtown core and, of course, Vanier. Begum will run a very strong campaign. If the NDP could pick this up in 2011 federally, they could very well do so again here this time as the NDP eclipses the Liberals not only in terms of number of seats, but also the popular vote. I'd actually give her a (very slight) edge as of today.
09/05/2018 Anthony
Already seen multiple NDP signs go up in the riding, the NDP are gaining momentum in the polls, this will be an NDP gain like the 2011 federal election.
08/05/2018 Call me Cal
A super star candidate, momentum and all the resources needed make this the riding the NDP can reach. At best TCTC but I bet this moves to NDP by e-day.
28/04/2018 Innocent bystander
The Liberals won The 6ix by 26 points in 2014; now they're running third, down 43% ... they bleed red ink slower than that.
Disaffected Liberals look to be breaking to the PCs over the NDP by a 3:2 ratio.
Too close to call, but the Liberals are likeliest to finish third.
27/04/2018 Joe
If there were any Scarborough seat where the Liberals should hold on it's here. Yet their longtime incumbent is running in a bit of a changed district, and the old guy's appeal is unfortunately limited to the more upscale sector of the neighbourhood's population. With this, the Liberals and PC's both look quite far in the running.
01/04/2018 Dr. Bear
Latest Forum poll puts the NDP ahead of the PC in Toronto, and well behind the Liberals (Lib:NDP:PC 39:28:27). With that PC support locked up in Etobicoke and northern Scarborough ridings, I don't think the PCs are going to reach this one. I could even see the NDP snatching this (like the 2011 federal race).If compelled, I would call it a Liberal hold, but I'm going to officially give it a tepid TCTC. Let's see if the poll numbers hold for the 416.
23/03/2018 Not Non-Partisan
The Tories will parachute a 'star' in here. There are already several expressions of interest. The local councillor had intended to run but opted-out. He did however assist the riding association raise a chunk of change. Whoever the Tory is will inherit a campaign fund flush with cash. Berardinetti ceased being a participant at QP years ago and it shows.
17/03/2018 A.S.
An enigma as far as a potential Ford ScarSweep goes, maybe in part because this part of Scarberia was already served by the subway decades before RoFo promised the world for the rest. Plus, of course, it's the seat most proximate to 'old Toronto', as well as the one with the strongest NDP history (incl. Stephen Lewis's provincial leadership). Oh, a very good deal of SSW (or at least the portion existing N of the Bluffs and the Kingston-Danforth corridor) is absolutely Ford-compatible anyway; it's all a matter of translating that into FordToryCompatible--for now, pending all party strategies, I'll safely err on the side of three-way free-for all...
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
If the NDP were to win any Scarborough ridings it would be this one, but at this point they seem to be largely invisible. PCs seem to have a ceiling of 30% so may have a strong second place showing but unlikely to win. So Liberal hold, even if they lose badly provincially.

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