Dwellings occupied by usual residents:
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
|Keith Ashfield **
|Mary Lou Babineau
2011 Results (redistributed)
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
(99.47% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
New Brunswick Southwest
(0.53% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
|I'm ready to call Fredericton. The Greens have made decent gains Canada-wide, mainly at Liberal expense. In addition, the Conservatives have risen substantially in Atlantic Canada and are now close to, if not ahead of, the Liberals. |
That combination will be a 1-2 punch for DeCourcey with more Green support in urban Fredericton (there isn't nearly enough in the riding as a whole to pick it up for themselves though), and more importantly, much more Conservative support in the outlying areas (where they should run up the numbers like last year provincially). Result should be a CPC pickup.
||Right Honourable Adult|
|There is now a highly-likely scenario that the split on the left will allow the Tories to sail through here whereas it should otherwise be a tougher fight. Same dynamic will hold for other ridings where the Greens punch above their weight but aren't quite dominant (in contrast to Guelph, Vancouver Island's ridings...)|
|Fredericton is probably the closest thing to an Atlantic bellwether seat. Like the Ontario bellwethers (Peterborough, St. Catharines) it is a mid-sized city that has the right mix of public sector and private, urban and exurban, traditional Canadians and immigrant groups, anglo and franco, religiosity and secularism, and diverse socioeconomic groups to make it viable for both Liberals and Conservatives and therefore tends to vote with the national winner with some exceptions (2006, for example). Like any bellwether, it's simply too early to call this one.|
|This is going to be the most interesting race in New Brunswick, and probably in all of Atlantic Canada. The Liberals are not doing particularly well among Anglophone voters, while this is the best riding in Atlantic Canada for the Greens. Provincially, Fredericton was a battle royale with all four parties winning seats in the area. |
Urban Fredericton is largely white collar, yet has an environmental tinge to it as well. The Greens will likely make major gains there at Liberal expense being the top progressive alternative (the NDP is irrelevant here). But that vote split could open the door to the Conservatives, especially if they replicate the domination of the rural Saint John Valley last year (the PC's + PANB combined for 70% or more in many rural polls near Fredericton). Too close to call in a potential 3 way race.
|It is looking more and more like a three-way race in Fredericton, with the Greens poll numbers increasing, and the Liberal vote collapsing at the expense of the Conservatives. Too close to call at the moment, will be an interesting race over the next few months.|
|I disagree that DeCourcey has been that impressive, he's just come across as a typical partisan MP to me, and his fortunes will probably rise and fall with the national party.|
On the Tory side, If ex-MLA Brian Macdonald runs for the CPC like he implied last year, he should at least improve on Keith Ashfield's showing.
The wild card is the Greens. The provincial results from last year are a good guide - not only did Coon win his seat, but they did well enough in the rest of the city to show that their message can break through outside the usual downtown/university types. A good candidate can, at least, play spoiler and hand it to the CPC; at best, win it outright.
I see Fredericton as a real 3-way race right now.
|This riding has often been a bellwether, but still will have a few unique factors this October. It is a strong riding for the Greens which may hurt the Liberals if the Greens contest it; this is likely as it is their best riding in the Maritimes. Given the fact the Conservatives have a very strong chance of winning the neighbouring Fundy Royal and Tobique ridings, a similar increase in support may be enough. The incumbent Liberal is still an appealing candidate who has risen highly in the Liberal caucus, so it will be close, although the Liberals appear to have a slight edge.|
|I wouldn't call this quite yet for the Liberals. I agree they are favoured, but far from certain. A few things to consider is in the last provincial election, the NB PCs + People's Alliance got close to 60% in this area and both are broadly speaking small c conservative parties. So while Tories won't get every vote from those two, they only need a sizeable chunk which they will likely get. While the NDP weakness helps the Liberals, this is the area where Green Party leader David Coon is from so the Greens could easily get in double digits and that will likely come at the expense of the Liberals not Tories. So while the Liberals have an edge now, not a large enough one that I think this can be called for them.|
|Matt DeCourcey has been instrumental for the riding. Success in getting Federal funding for the Fredericton International Airport will play a huge factor here and his commitment to the armed forces and youth will also play here. This stays Liberal in my eyes.|