Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:41:28

Constituency Profile


Cousineau, Henri

Dhatsenpa, Kalden

Lepage, Cathy

Poitras, Casandra

Robichaud, Stéphane

Romanado, Sherry


Sherry Romanado

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



37.44 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Sherry Romanado 1830135.40%
Philippe Cloutier 1397427.00%
Sadia Groguhé ** 1246824.10%
Thomas Barré 49619.60%
Mario Leclerc 15102.90%
Matthew Iakov Liberman 3250.60%
Pierre Chénier 1680.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (67.56% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (32.44% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/10/19 Tony Ducey
Another seat that could go either way on Monday but I think the BQ will win here in a close race.
17/10/19 J.F. Breton
Si Longueuil-St-Hubert bascule vers le Bloc, il n'y a pas de raison que Longueuil-Charles-LeMoyne ne fasse pas de même. Selon le plus récent sondage Léger, les Libéraux et Bloquistes sont au coude-à-coude au Québec à 31%. À l’extérieur de Montréal, l’influence du Bloc se fait le plus sentir : le parti est largement en avance en Montérégie (39 %), dans Lanaudière/Laurentides (45 %) et dans le Centre-du-Québec (36 %).
05/09/19 A.S.
Difficult to believe that the last provincial PQ seat remaining in Greater Montreal sits in a federal *Liberal* riding...then again, it's Greenfield Park & Springfield Park to the S that tipped this riding Lib-ward, not the actual Longueuil part. So there is Bloc potential in case the Libs falter; but who could have imagined not so very long ago that the Libs would finish ahead of the Bloc in *both* Longueuil seats?
03/03/19 Sam
The Liberals came up the middle with a win last time, and they can do the same again. The NDP may lose a lot of votes, and to win here the Bloc would have to take a huge proportion of that ex-NDP vote. What makes things less certain is the PQ victory in Marie-Victorin provincially; if the Bloc can win those voters they could take this, but a Liberal victory is still the likeliest option.

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