Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:43:18

Constituency Profile


Bendayan, Rachel

Clarke, Andrea

Green, Daniel

Grimard, Célia

Hiemstra, Mark John

Lévesque, Sabin

Louras, Jasmine


Rachel Bendayan

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



11.95 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Tom Mulcair ** 1924244.10%
Rachel Bendayan 1459733.50%
Rodolphe Husny 41599.50%
Roger Galland Barou 36688.40%
Amara Diallo 15753.60%
Francis Pouliot 2160.50%
Adrien Welsh 1620.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3610.86%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (86.46% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (12.77% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.76% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Mount Royal
   (0.01% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
Following the NDP's time here the seat returned to the Liberals in the by-election, I see them keeping the seat in the general.
13/10/19 Physastr Master
I know this is about the grain, but hear me out. There's a BQ wave growing in Quebec, but the NDP seems to be holding or even growing in spite of it. The NDP rise in 2011 was overwhelmingly at the expense of the BQ, so it would make sense that a lot of new BQ votes would be former-NDP. That said, if that was true, the NDP would be dropping, which isn't happening right now. I find it hard to believe that the NDP is *not* losing votes to the BQ given the wave building in the province, so I think there must be an NDP surge coming from somewhere that counteracts their vulnerability to the BQ and allows them to rise in the polls (last Nanos: 19%!). To me the prime candidate is Liberals in federalist Quebec. The BQ isn't a factor here, so the NDP are free to grow without the BQ stealing their thunder. The NDP held up well in the by-election relative to polling, so there is a base to work with. Daniel Green is a complicating factor, but the Greens seem to be taking from the NDP and Liberals equally, so he might even help the NDP. Don't get me wrong, with a BQ surge building, the NDP will be completely obliterated in Quebec outside of Montreal (except maybe REB and Guy Caron). But here, the conditions might be right for a pickup.
30/09/19 R.O.
Same riding as 2015 but a drastically different race here now that Mulcair is gone as mp. Not many people voted in the by election but it went liberal rather easily. with a strong 2nd from the ndp and a surprisingly strong green result. Riding seems poised to stay liberal .
31/08/19 Marco Ricci
It's difficult to know how much to read into the Green's 3rd place result in the by-election until we see the results of a general election. By-election turnout can be different, and this past February had low turnout in Outremont because of bad winter weather -- it was the lowest turnout of all the byelections held in Canada that day, with even the winning Liberals having a low turnout, too. The Greens did finish ahead of the BQ & the Cons, but we'll have to wait until October to see if these numbers will be replicated.
25/08/20 A.S.
The question of Daniel Green is an interesting one; though it'd likelier take another byelection rather than a general to see victory through--but it's definitely interesting how in the byelection, the combined Green and "legacy" NDP vote (remember: this was a top Montreal-area seat for the party even *before* Mulcair, which in part explained Mulcair running here) surpassed the Liberals by two votes! In fact, even the NDP performance exceeded the Jagmeet-era Quebec norm in such a way that suggested how the party might still contain a shred of inner-Montreal competitiveness (they still won a lot of polls, particularly in the their old Plateau and Mile End standbys). Though in this particular general election climate, it's probably even more of a battle for second with Green than it was in the byelection. Or not. But it all works in Bendayan's hands, anyway.
15/08/20 Johnny 5
Going against the grain and Say that the greens with Daniel Green could punch above their weight and possibly win by attracting some of the old NDP vote and even some Liberal votes. The greens did well with Daniel Green in a by election people know him. He has presence in the media. In the same way that Mulcair had when he won and was the only NDP MP here in Quebec in 2008.. the greens could pull off the same thing.
02/07/19 Laurence Putnam
I'm actually surprised even still at how relatively badly Mulcair did in 2015 considering he was Leader of the Opposition and a bona fide candidate for Prime Minister. His result as leader of the party, in an election where by historical NDP standards he did turn in a strong if disappointing result, he had one of his worst results in his own riding in the past decade.
While the NPD did shore up their vote surprisingly well in the by-election I would expect they'll be lucky to hold onto 20% or so of the vote in the general.
31/05/19 seasaw
This was where it started and this is where it'll end. When Mr Mulcair won this seat, it was the 1st NDP seat in Quebec in a long time, a few years later, NDP won the majority of the seats in Quebec. Now he's gone and replaced by a Liberal, all other NDPers are soon to follow.
19/04/19 Sam
The by-election results shouldn't be too much different from the general, at least for the top two candidates.
27/02/19 Lolitha
Considering byelection was won by Liberals by a significant margin, and the collapse of NDP in Quebec, this should be seen as likely Liberal seat in general election.
27/02/19 M. Lunn
Still favour the Liberals, but the NDP did a bit better in the by-election than I thought so if their numbers improve in Quebec, they may have a chance at retaking this, but at the moment Liberals heavily favoured.
26/02/19 Dr. Bear
The byelection has returned Outremont back to the Liberal fold and here it will stay. This was a Tom Mulcair riding and without him the NDP have no hope.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Easy Liberal pickup here. NDP has cratered in Quebec, while BQ despite a slight recent uptick with new leader has never done well here and the right leaning CAQ got in single digits so Tories will likely get similar results so Liberal gain.

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