Election Prediction Project

Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-02-24 17:38:34

Constituency Profile


Boulerice, Alexandre A.B.

Sarfati, Johanna


Alexandre Boulerice

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



10.67 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Alexandre Boulerice ** 2867249.20%
Claude André 1228321.10%
Nadine Medawar 1206820.70%
Jeremy Dohan 25104.30%
Sameer Muldeen 17833.10%
Laurent Aglat 4950.80%
Peter d'Entremont 3530.60%
Stéphane Chénier 1710.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 5581.03%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie
   (99.55% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.45% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

26/03/19 Laurence Putnam
Agree this is probably the only seat in Quebec where the NPD have a realistic chance. In fact the only one I'll really tentatively ‘call’ for the NPD as I would bet that at least at the moment, Boulerice is still the one to beat.
Dippers have to hope that Boulerice's high profile augers well, that resurgent BQ and Liberal forces split the anti-incumbent vote, and hope to hell they can eek out a win with 30-something percent of the vote or so. Even before Mulcair signed on the NPD could achieve 10% or so of the vote on their own here without much help, so it is naturally fertile territory, or at least as good as it gets in Montreal. You have to believe that the federal campaign, albeit with what limited resources it has, will throw the kitchen sink at this riding.
Boulerice himself scored almost 17% of the vote here in 2008, pre-orange wave. Now he's the man to beat, and he may just survive to fight another day. And if he can do it, he may just be the next leader.
21/03/19 Sam
There is no other Quebec riding I would call for the NDP at this stage. As well as having a high-quality MP in Alexandre Boulerice, this is also natural NDP territory and has always been one of their strongest areas. I think Boulerice may likely shed votes, but he should win again.
05/03/19 Neal
I had long said that there were at least 5 ridings in Quebec that were natural NDP territory, and that Rosemont-La Petite patrie was probably the ripest for the picking. (The others, for the record, were Laurier Ste marie, Hochelaga, Outremont, and Pointe de L'ile) And it happened, with Alexandre Boulerice proving himself a good constituency MP, as well as an able parliamentarian, and even leadership material.
I strongly believe that M. Boulerice will be returning to Ottawa.
26/02/19 Dr. Bear
This is the ONLY Quebec NDP seat that I say has a chance at staying orange. Boulerice is one of the most competent MPs from the Quebec orange wave, and this is a riding that should naturally favor the NDP. However, it is heavily Francophone, and even in cosmopolitan Montreal, the french-speaking voters are not fans on religious symbols. They will have a hard time looking past the turban. I suspect that Singh will be invisible in this riding during the campaign and will try to allow Boulerice to win this seat on his own merit. I'm not sure that he can.
25/02/19 J.F. Breton
The NDP may fall out of favour in Quebec, but Alexandre Boulerice will win despite his party. Brosseau (Berthier-Maskinongé) and him will be the two last NDP members in Québec.
24/02/19 Teddy Boragina
If the NDP as a party is going to win any seat in this province, it is Rosemont. The fact the MP here is competent will only help in that cause. While the NDP is down in Quebec, they are not yet down so far as to lose this riding. It is the core of NDP partisan support in Montreal, and across Quebec. They will win here.

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