Election Prediction Project

Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:43:25

Constituency Profile


André, Claude

Boulerice, Alexandre

Desrochers, Gisèle

Désy, Jean

Hinse, Geneviève

Lavoie, Jos Guitare

Pellerin, Bobby

Raymond, Normand

Sarfati, Johanna


Alexandre Boulerice

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



10.67 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Alexandre Boulerice ** 2867249.20%
Claude André 1228321.10%
Nadine Medawar 1206820.70%
Jeremy Dohan 25104.30%
Sameer Muldeen 17833.10%
Laurent Aglat 4950.80%
Peter d'Entremont 3530.60%
Stéphane Chénier 1710.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 5581.03%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie
   (99.55% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.45% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

19/10/19 Tony Ducey
Boulerice has been 1 of the top NDP MP's for Quebec since his 2011 election. They could get shut out in the rest of the province but still keep this seat which I predict they will.
15/10/19 Mark
This should be a safe riding for the NDP to call a win. They're putting a good portion of their Quebec assets into this one, Boulerice is well liked and it is a friendly area for the NDP.
Unless there is a surprising BQ wave - which is definitely possible as Quebec voters have shown us before that they like to surprise us - this should be an NDP win come election night.
12/10/19 Sam
Pleased to see the NDP call of myself and others has held up if the poll is to be believed. The Liberals are supposed to be doing better than previously, and I don't think the Bloc surge is as large here. The NDP should come up the middle with the strongest candidate again.
11/10/19 Eddie E.
Boulerice is the only NDP candidate with a shot of winning in Quebec, but even he is in deep trouble now given the recent upturn in Bloc fortunes. Les Quebecois are famous for political tsunamis, and l'm getting a bad feeling that the small Bloc tide we are seeing is about to morph into a BQ wave. English Canada might have nobody appealing to vote for in this election about nothing, but in Quebec there is another option. Blanchet acquitted himself well in the debates, is the only leader unequivocally on the right side of the popular Bill 21 in Quebec, and given the unappealing options, what seemed like a party dead and buried might just pick up more seats in Quebec than any other party.
08/10/19 Anthony
Main Street poll shows Boulerice leading here and the LIberals in third behind the Bloc.
07/10/19 R.O.
Perhaps not really a surprise but ndp incumbent Alexandra Boulerice remains popular in this riding according to a new poll .NDP’s Boulerice ahead in Montreal reading: Mainstreet polls
By Marco Vigliotti. Published on Oct 7, 2019 9:22am
07/10/19 Kumar Patel
Mainstreet's poll today has Boulerice with a 9% lead over his Bloc opponent.
Similar to Berthier—Maskinongé, I'm surprised to see the Liberals are polling low.
26/09/19 PierreDansRosemont
J'habite dans ce quartier depuis une dizaine d’années et c'est claire que Boulerice demeure le favori parmi les candidats. Un député actif et bien vu par les electeurs dans le secteur Rosemont, ainsi qu'un soutien sur le terrain par les militants de Québec Solidaire. Par contre, la vague de gentrification dans la partie Petite Italie de la circonscription aidera la candidate du PLC, mais selon moi, pas assez pour accorder une victoire a Justin et co.
04/09/19 QuebecCityOliver
Party status is definitely on the line for the NDP in this election. 12 seats.
However, it is possible that the HOC would accept a lower threshold particularly in the case of a minority government.
One has to assume after the last election that QS has the ability to organize and win seats. Presumably for the NDP.
02/09/19 A.S.
If the NPD's throwing all its resources into here, it's far from certain that the Libs, Bloc, and Greens will *all* gain, at least assuming that the keep-Boulerice-alive vote has to come from *somewhere*--strategic supertargeting can have a way of squeezeplaying inconvenient third-leg forces, as harrumph harrumph the New Democrats will tell you from being sidelined in so many races that default into LibCon binary (2015 not excepted, of course). It's not impossible, though, given the size of cushion Boulerice is sitting on--in fact, that this was one of only three Île de Montréal seats where the Bloc finished ahead of the Libs suggests that it's not so cut-and-dried as yet another Lib pickup, and in fact a mutual rise could actually *help* Boulerice by allowing him up the middle, sort of a ‘Hochelaga '15’ outcome. And with QS support, what might be a most extraordinary outcome would be if Boulerice survives even as his party loses official status--an outcome which couldn't ruled out under Jagmeet.
27/08/19 Kumar Patel
This is the most consequential riding for the NDP in this election cycle. It's important for that party to maintain a toehold in Quebec that they can build from in the future.
I think the New Democrats will throw everything they can to re-elect Boulerice.
I suspect the NDP will win with a reduced margin, with the Liberals, Bloc and Green gaining.
24/07/19 seasaw
Don't think NDP has a chance of winning any seats in Quebec this time around. Even Jagmeet Singh has stated that he's not worried about his Quebec results, meaning that he's already conceded. The Liberals are doing very well in Quebec and especially Montreal. They will take this seat.
26/03/19 Laurence Putnam
Agree this is probably the only seat in Quebec where the NPD have a realistic chance. In fact the only one I'll really tentatively ‘call’ for the NPD as I would bet that at least at the moment, Boulerice is still the one to beat.
Dippers have to hope that Boulerice's high profile augers well, that resurgent BQ and Liberal forces split the anti-incumbent vote, and hope to hell they can eek out a win with 30-something percent of the vote or so. Even before Mulcair signed on the NPD could achieve 10% or so of the vote on their own here without much help, so it is naturally fertile territory, or at least as good as it gets in Montreal. You have to believe that the federal campaign, albeit with what limited resources it has, will throw the kitchen sink at this riding.
Boulerice himself scored almost 17% of the vote here in 2008, pre-orange wave. Now he's the man to beat, and he may just survive to fight another day. And if he can do it, he may just be the next leader.
21/03/19 Sam
There is no other Quebec riding I would call for the NDP at this stage. As well as having a high-quality MP in Alexandre Boulerice, this is also natural NDP territory and has always been one of their strongest areas. I think Boulerice may likely shed votes, but he should win again.
05/03/19 Neal
I had long said that there were at least 5 ridings in Quebec that were natural NDP territory, and that Rosemont-La Petite patrie was probably the ripest for the picking. (The others, for the record, were Laurier Ste marie, Hochelaga, Outremont, and Pointe de L'ile) And it happened, with Alexandre Boulerice proving himself a good constituency MP, as well as an able parliamentarian, and even leadership material.
I strongly believe that M. Boulerice will be returning to Ottawa.
26/02/19 Dr. Bear
This is the ONLY Quebec NDP seat that I say has a chance at staying orange. Boulerice is one of the most competent MPs from the Quebec orange wave, and this is a riding that should naturally favor the NDP. However, it is heavily Francophone, and even in cosmopolitan Montreal, the french-speaking voters are not fans on religious symbols. They will have a hard time looking past the turban. I suspect that Singh will be invisible in this riding during the campaign and will try to allow Boulerice to win this seat on his own merit. I'm not sure that he can.
25/02/19 J.F. Breton
The NDP may fall out of favour in Quebec, but Alexandre Boulerice will win despite his party. Brosseau (Berthier-Maskinongé) and him will be the two last NDP members in Québec.
24/02/19 Teddy Boragina
If the NDP as a party is going to win any seat in this province, it is Rosemont. The fact the MP here is competent will only help in that cause. While the NDP is down in Quebec, they are not yet down so far as to lose this riding. It is the core of NDP partisan support in Montreal, and across Quebec. They will win here.

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