Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:43:28

Constituency Profile


Ayala, Paulina

Colly, Garnet

Di Serio, Tina

Guillet, Hassan

Lattanzio, Patricia

Maiolo, Ilario

Mougin, Dominique

Szilagyi, Alessandra


Nicola Di Iorio

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



20.24 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Nicola Di Iorio 2882664.70%
Rosannie Filato 661114.80%
Jean Philippe Fournier 495711.10%
Steeve Gendron 32047.20%
Melissa Miscione 8051.80%
Arezki Malek 1280.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1780.48%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (94.83% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (3.64% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (1.53% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
This riding has to strong a Liberal history for it to change. I think it stays Liberal in the general election.
27/09/19 R.O.
Former liberal candidate Hassan Guillet is now running as an independent . I’m not sure how that affects the race here. it was also one of the ridings Scheer visited when he was in Montreal although it seems like a long shot for the cpc based on past results. But perhaps a more interesting race in a typically safe liberal riding.
19/09/19 J.F. Breton
Blue nightmare for Liberals in Saint-Léonard, if we refer to the Journal de Montréal. Di Iorio, former Libreal MP told Liberal internal polls currently give the Conservative candidate winner. Apparently, the new Liberal candidate is suspected of mismanagement in her school board. And she was told not to go to the media. All this after the withdrawal of the previous Liberal candidate, accused of anti-Semitism.
Source: https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2019/09/19/cauchemar-bleu-pour-le-plc-dans-saint-leonard-1
15/09/19 Marco Ricci
Patricia Lattanzio, Montreal City Councillor for Saint-Léonard, has been chosen as the new Liberal candidate:
30/08/19 Marco Ricci
The Liberals have removed Hassan Guillet as the candidate for Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel after Bnaibrith found anti-Semitic & anti-Israel comments in his history:
30/08/19 A.S.
The most Blue Dog Liberal riding in Canada, insofar as the LPC has a knack for nominating individuals who wind up being little better than blue dogs (including, presently, the hastily-removed Guillet) and yet the stink they leave never prevents the party from winning. Though if this were Ontario, the Italian-Canadian element might make it CPC-compatible in a Ford/Fantino Nation way...but it isn't Ontario.
30/05/19 seasaw
The Liberals have just nominated a well known Imam to run in this riding. A good candidate, and the fact that this is the safest Liberal riding in Quebec, a riding that they don't even need a good candidate, can even win with a fence post, makes this the easiest prediction
16/03/19 Sam
This was the best riding for the Liberals in the whole of Quebec, where they are holding up their vote. The Di Iorio debacle will barely affect that.
03/03/19 Marco Ricci
This is one of the safest Liberal ridings in Quebec.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
East of Saint Laurent Boulevard this is by far the safest Liberal riding. Heavy Allophone population who go massively Liberal.

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