Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-02-23 14:34:37

Constituency Profile


Aglukkaq, Leona

Pizzo-Lyall, Megan


Hunter Tootoo

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



1877778.53 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Hunter Tootoo 561947.10%
Jack Iyerak Anawak 317126.60%
Leona Aglukkaq ** 295624.80%
Spencer Rocchi 1821.50%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

13/09/19 Cal
Game on. She’s young she’s connected and she’s going to win.
11/09/19 R.O.
Always a tough one to predict due to the large size of the riding and few actual voters. also been a riding that’s had a lot of different mp’s , 6 since the 1980’s , so too close to call until race starts to take shape .
01/09/19 A.S.
Leona running again is, basically, investment in the likelihood of another Conservative government. If that seems not in the cards, that means ‘no place at the table’; and ‘no place at the table’ = no real reason to vote for her, unless those running against her turn out to be total turkeys. Then again, she was third in '15 running against a Liberal-turned-New-Democrat and a New-Democrat-turned-Liberal-and-subsequently-out-of-caucus, so...
So Leona is running for the CPC here again. That should clinch Nunavut for the Liberals in Oct
30/07/20 M K
News today that Hunter Tootoo will not seek reelection. Without the wrench in the mix of an Independent incumbent, it should improve the Liberals' hopes of winning the seat once again.
Too early to tell, however, with no Liberal candidate nominated yet.
01/04/19 Sam
I had this down as a Liberal seat, but in hindsight that was premature. I have noticed that many projections have Nunavut as a Conservative gain. While I stick by what I said and still believe the Liberals are in a good position here, I would argue that the Conservative's chances have been underestimated by many, including myself. Granted, their uptick in the polls may influence the projections, but the possibility the polls are indicating is not so wild as to be ruled out.
24/02/19 Sam
The world's largest electoral district should have an interesting race, but that doesn't mean it won't be going Liberal again. Last time, even star candidate Jack Iyerak Anawak couldn't bring the NDP anywhere close, and a sitting Conservative minister came third. The Liberals still have a very good chance this time round but it should definitely be closer.
23/02/19 (Vancouver) Islander
To correct the first poster, Tootoo wasn't kicked out of the Liberals, he resigned from the party caucus to deal with alcohol issues and stayed as an independent when he returned to parliament. There doesn't appear to be any info as to whether or not he plans to run again, be it as a Liberal or an independent, but either way, this is far from an easy call. The NDP may not be a factor this time, but the Conservatives had Nunavut for two terms before the last election, even winning with almost 50% in 2011, so I'd call this one a crapshoot at this point. While I don't expect Tootoo to run as an independent, it would certainly make this race an interesting one if it happened.
This seat will be interesting if Hunter Tootoo decides to run again as an independent. He won the seat as a Liberal but was kicked out of the Liberal caucus in 2016. Even if he does decide to make a run as an independent, I still see the Liberals winning Canada's largest riding. The CPC and NDP won't be a factor here.

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