1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
René Denis
Progressive Conservative Party:
Brian Coburn
New Democratic Party:
Jamie Gallant
Green Party:
Andre Clermont
Natural Law Party:
Richard Wolfson
Luc Brisebois

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Carleton East (67%):
Gilles Morin
Prescott-Russell (28%):
Jean-Marc Lalonde

Member of Parliament:
Eugene Bellemare

Surrounding Ridings
Ottawa South

Population: 91 859
Avg Household Income 68 120
Language (Home)
English 62 295
French 21 835
Submitted Information
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03/05/99 I. Macfarlane Email: imacfarlane@accel.net
The Liberals will take this seat since they have been well represented by liberal members who are either retiring or in different ridings due to redistribution.
03/29/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
There was a nascent Franco-Tory element in the last election, and Gilles Morin's no longer running--but the riding's also next door that of Dalton McG. Redistribution makes the riding even more suburban than its provincial predecessor, but it won't make a difference. Part of the formidable, noticably Franco-Ontarian Ottawa River "red belt" east of the national capital.
04/19/99 Martin Arnold Email: martin_arnold@hotmail.com
I would give the Liberals a small edge in this riding - but it could go either way. The riding is one of the few suburban ridings not in the tory fold. The riding went Liberal last time in large part due to the personal popularility of Gilles Morin the Liberal MPP. His retirement and a very strong PC Candiate in Mayor Brian Coburn make this a tighter race than most would expect.
04/21/99 Email:
PC with a chance Carleton-Gloucester?! hmmpff!! This is the riding where I grew up and I have worked as a poll clerk here, it is about the safest liberal seat in the province. I don't think the conservatives have ever held this seat provincially, and the conservatives usually have come in third here. Now that the NDP presence in the riding has pretty much evaporated the conservatives can forget even the slightest hope of coming up the middle. Any one could run for the Liberals here and win, just look at the representative in Ottawa, the doddering half-wit windbag radical anti-abortionist Eugene Bellmare!
04/22/99 S. Webb Email:
A very close race... For the first time since 1981, the last time the Tories won, they have a real chance. Brian Coburn is an extremely popular Mayor and would have been a sure thing if it were not for Rene Danis. He is a well respected councillor. If the Tories win provincially they will win the seat, if they don't they won't!
04/22/99 Jim Burnett Email: 6jfb@qlink.queensu.ca
Brian Coburn will return this riding to the Tories for the first time since Bill Davis. The incumbent, Gilles Morin, was an inactive but inoffensive MPP. He never faced a strong challenger like Coburn. The Liberal Candidate, Rene Danis, is strong but not in the same catagory as Coburn. A popular former Mayor, Coburn brings a large grassroots machine with him (including known Liberals). He also has the benefit of a very well oiled fundraising machine which will present a signifigant challenge to the "Big Red Machine" in Ottawa.
04/23/99 ws Email:
I think Brian Coburn is a shoo-in for this riding. I think he would serve the riding very well. He is well known and has extensive name recognition.
04/25/99 SM Email:
Danis is a good man, but Coburn is too well known and too popular. He will be a lock, regardless of the provincial trend. He also has a substantial war chest to play with.
04/26/99 Leith R.A. Coghlin Email:
I must agree with my fellow Tories (surprise, surprise!). Brian Coburn is a terrific candidate with an outstanding reputation in this riding. Like my friend Mr. Webb stated, this is the first time since 1981 that the Tory fortune has never looked brighter in C-G. I will honestly agree that the Liberal incumbant has some clout with him; but like many ridings, the choice is clear: do you want a back-bench opposition MPP or do you want a constructive, experienced, local personality that has the potential to go through the ranks and deliver results to their local riding? If the residents of C-G ask themselves this question, which I think they will, the MPP for C-G will be Brian Coburn. Simply enough said!
04/26/99 A.L. Email: 3arb@qlink.queensu.ca
Sean, Jim and my other Tory friends have been drinking too much Labatt's Blue if they think that a majority government up for re-election is at all likely to gain seats. Very, very rare and highly unlikely.
04/27/99 S. Webb Email:
Under other circumstances Andy, I would agree with you. However, this is my home riding, and I can tell you Brian is an exception. He will win based on his personal popularity above all else. It will be a truly local race.
04/27/99 Email:
I have only lived in Ottawa a short while but long enough to notice that it seems to be the Liberal epicentre. All of the Liberal support seems to radiate from Parliament Hill itself. I think the area has gone through a positive change since the 1995 election and it is not thanks to a back bench opposition Liberal MPP. The people of Carlton-Gloucester would probably be better served with a government MPP but a significant francophone population may even out the scales on election night. Gary Guzzo's win in Ottawa-Rideau last election night proved that the Liberal fortress is cracking from the west and shows signs of wear in the east. Watch this riding on election night, the Tories will surprise.
04/28/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Children, children. This is a prediction page, not a party-plumping page. Given some of these "do you want a government MPP or back bench opposition MPP" arguments (or the rough reverse, for the matter), we might as well be recycling the same pitch for the standard-bearers in Tory dead zones like Ottawa-Rideau. But I *do* take it somewhat seriously because that *is* how a lot of electors feel, that when push comes to shove, this government's stood by its promises and delivered results that previous governments couldn't (whether that's the truth or Machiavellian manipulation is for you to decide;-)). The Tories did indeed place a poor third in '87 and '90, but as I've suggested, suburban Franco-Toryism seemed to awaken in '95, and within these boundaries the PCs would have come within 10 points of the hitherto formidable Liberals. So I can understand why the PCs might make this a target riding--and knowing who their candidate is now, if one perhaps discounts places where they're running incumbents, this might be the best PC prospect for a *gain*. Indeed, given that their candidate for Glengarry-Prescott-Russell also appears to be quite credible, I'm wondering if there's a deliberate (cynical?) Tory strategy afoot to conquer the hitherto unassailable Ottawa-to-Montreal "red belt". Perhaps a means of atoning for the Montfort Hospital and Dionne Quintuplet P.R. disasters? In any case, I'll adjust my prediction a notch...but *very* cautiously, and without knowing ground-level buzz. And always remember that mayoral popularity's no guarantee of being elected to higher office...
05/21/99 Noel Kivimaki Email: nkivimaki@yahoo.com
Definately the tories best chance for a gain in Eastern Ontario. The retirement of the incumbant and redistribution adding suburban Cumberland township to the riding (an area with a strong tory potential - some demographic similarities to the 905 region around Toronto) where the tory candidate is the mayor. Real battle of titans with the liberal candidate a city councillor in Gloucester.
05/21/99 R.M.i Email:
It's for a responsible MPP for C.G. Mr. Morin has proved ineffective for the past 15 years. C.G. wants a member who will voice their concerns and take action.
05/26/99 Mike Email:
Highly popular local mayor in riding that wouldn't look too out of place in the 905 belt; riding full of civil servants unhappy with federal Liberal government over pension hijacking, and whose biggest raise in the last ten years came from the Mike Harris tax cut. The question is whether the significant francophone majority will block vote on a single issue: Montfort Hospital downsizing.
06/01/99 Email:
While it will be a "close race", with under 3000 votes as a victory margin, the Liberals should easily retain the riding. Mr. Coburn's popularity notwithsatnding, his poor performance at public debates will not help. Recent whinings of his campaign manager that PC signs have been dissapearing have turned off a lot of people, since in the last few weeks, Mr. Coburn's supporters have been seen time and again removing his opponents' signs, leaving one with a feeling of facing Darth Coburn.
06/01/99 M Email:
Too close to call, with a slight edge to the Liberals. It's all about getting out the vote in this riding. This is the first time the Tories have had a legitimate chance at this one in years. I think Danis will win, but it will be a late night for the two campaign offices...

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Last Updated 2nd June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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