1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Ottawa West-Nepean

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Rick Chiarelli
Progressive Conservative Party:
Garry Guzzo MPP
New Democratic Party:
Alex Cullen MPP
Green Party:
Richard Warman
Natural Law Party:
Lester Newby
Confederation of Regions Party:
Anthony Silvestro
Megan Hnatiw
John Turmel

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Ottawa West (77%):
Alex Cullen
Nepean (38%):
John Baird
Ottawa Rideau (21%):
Garry Guzzo

Member of Parliament:
Marlene Catterall

Surrounding Ridings
Ottawa Centre

Population: 107 336
Avg Household Income 52 691
Language (Home)
English 89 870
French 3 555
Submitted Information
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02/16/99 Email:
PC will win through a split in the vote between NDP and Liberal based on Cullen's candidacy as a NDP'er.
03/16/99 Email:
Cullen has solid roots in local politics - he was a several term regional councillor who won the by-election with over 60% of the vote. He was subsequently treated very badly by the Liberals, many of whom never quite forgave him for winning the nomination in the first place. The Libs then stacked the nomination meeting in favour of the nephew of the guy who stepped aside in the first place. It was a slap in the face to the people of Ottawa West. Cullen will win the election, narrowly.
04/15/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Wow, what a mess. Guzzo, immortally nicknamed "The Guzzler" by Frank Magazine, might have the Chiarelli-Cullen crisis working to his favour, but he's not one of the brighter lights in the Harris caucus and besides, only a small corner of his old riding's included here. (But what was his alternative? To run against McGuinty?) Chiarelli's got name recognition, an overall riding record favouring the Liberals (though it would have been a dead heat in 1995), and the local McGuinty machine; that's the good news--and in large part, thanks to Alex Cullen, the bad news as well. Cullen's running for the NDP in a riding where the party would have gotten 11%(!) in '95 (and, still, only a quarter of the vote in the banner year of 1990); but sheer chutzpah could give him surprisingly real (if left fieldish) credentials as an anti-establishment alternative. Not unlike what Team Harris was to '95, in fact.
04/17/99 Email:
This riding will be one to watch on election night. The race is entirely between Guzzo and Chiarelli. Cullen as an NDPer will not have a hope in hell. The NDP got 11% of the vote last time and can not hope to even come close in this riding. Cullen is out for revenge on Chiarelli who beat him for the liberal nomination.
04/18/99 Mike O'Brien Email: l.obrien@nf.sympatico.ca
Tories will not have enough strength here to possibly come up the middle. They'll finish thrid behind the Liberals and NDP, but not with a really low number. Liberals have a half decent shot actually of comming up the middle.
04/21/99 Dale Woloshin Email:
On April 19, the Co-op Housing Assoc of Eastern Ontario (CHASEO) targeted this riding for Alex Cullen, and getting its volunteer base out. Rick Chiarelli did not show when invited by CHASEO, and while he is popular with Nepean Liberals, Alex's personal popularity and charisma has pulled some liberals and all the New Democrats solidly behind him, and the Nepean portion is the lesser portion of the riding. I have spoken to a few liberals who are breaking rank to vote for Alex. A split vote could mean the election for any of the three candidates, as Guzzo is known as a renegade among Conservatives, and this may play well in an election where being a Tory without being a Harrisite may be popular.
04/22/99 Email:
The Liberals dumped Alex Cullen out of the party and now the people of this riding will dump Cullen out of his seat at Queens Park. This one is a lock for the Grits.
05/16/99 LC Email:
Obviously the Grits must be considered in Ottawa. The bickering will be between Cullen and Guzzo, which may alienate voters and turn them to the Liberals. Guzzo has a hard fight here and Cullen is despised. Although the media fight will be between Cullen and Guzzo, the pull for votes will be between Guzzo and Chiarelli. This is definitely one to watch on electionnight.
05/18/99 Email:
Cullen is strong locally, but will suffer from his new NDP association. Chiarelli is personally not very likeable and has annoyed a lot of local liberals. That gives Guzzo the seat...as long as Cullen rake in decent showing.
05/21/99 Noel Kivimaki Email: nkivimaki@yahoo.com
Still a three way race. Hampton's performance in the debate is keeping Cullen in this fight. His lawn sign message of being "Your Community MPP" is also resonating in the riding where whoever emerges as the MPP would have little chance of a cabinet post anyway. Chiarelli's campaign reminds me a bit of Dominique LeBlanc's campaign in Beasejour in the last federal election where the GG's son expected name recognition and family ties to hand it to him on a silver platter. While Chiarelli has political experience, he also faces two veterans in Guzzo and Cullen. Right now, I'd say Chiarelli has a slim lead over Guzzo, and Cullen just behind. Provincial trends and the impact of potential strategic voters will have a tremendous impact on this race.
05/24/99 Lori Simpson Email: loris@istar.ca
Alex Cullen has taken a strong stand against school closures in this riding. The threatened closure of two schools, Whitehaven and Queensway and the resulting overcrowding of the two receiving schools impacts a large number of constituents in this riding, either directly or through loss in property values. Garry Guzzo has been silent on this important issue and has alienated many voters as a result. This issue is just one example of how Alex has worked hard for his constituents. He will win this seat easily.
05/26/99 Email:
Rick has angered a lot of people in this riding. He is not well liked and is running his campaign on name recognition alone. He is not his cousin, and his cousin, Bob, worked with Garry. Alex Cullen disappointed people when he went to the NDP. This is going to be close, however the win will go to Garry.
05/27/99 Email:
Alex Cullen is a hardworking member who was given the shaft by his former party establishment. His door to door reception is remarkable. Conversely, Rick Chiarelli is no Bob C. Back to the old council table Rick....snore.....
05/28/99 TPM Email:
This riding was served well until the election of Alex who chose toignor the wishes of the majority of his constituants and voted against the Calgary Accord. This type of show boating is all anyone can expect for the Cullens. Chiarelli has been a good councilor in Nepean and is well respected there this should carry him through. Gizzo except is realy a no show, He chickened out of running against Patten in Ottawa Centre where he would have been lucky to get 600 votes to run in Ottawa west Nepean in Hpes of sneaking up the middle not a chance.
06/01/99 J.V. Email:
Garry Guzzo will pull off a narrow victory. The Liberals could have locked-up this riding had they treated Cullen better, and been able to keep him as the Liberal candidate. Incumbency is always worth a few thousand votes (votes that otherwise would have gone Liberal will go to the NDP which will help Guzzo).Cullen will siffen-off just enough votes from the Liberals to let Guzzo back in with about 38% of the vote. Also I think the Conservatives will do much better than you are currently predicting. There seems to be a big discrepency between what you are forecasting, and what the polls seem to be indicating?!(latest Ekos: Conservatives 46%, Liberals 38% NDP 14%).
06/01/99 Michael Ensley Email: mensley@rocketmail.com
Alex Cullen will "win" by splitting the anti-Harris vote and allowing the Tories to come up the middle to win
06/01/99 Dale Woloshin Email: dale@woloshin.net
I co-ordinated an All-Candidates meeting on May 30, with an emphasis on Poverty. Attending were Rick Chiarelli (Liberal), Alex Cullen (NDP), Anthony Silvestro (CoR), and Michael Warman (Green). The 100+ audience was a mixture of elderly, church folk (inter-faith, including some muslims), plus activists for each of the attending candidates and there was heckling from both the far right and the far left.
Anthony Silvestro had a vocal contingent with him, but did not, it appears, garner any other support. Michael Warman generated the best non-partisan applause, though I suspect his votes will go to Alex Cullen.
At this event, both Alex Cullen and Rick Chiarelli appeared strong, Alex the more stronger. I hesitate to make this absolute, because Rick Chiarelli was at a number of indoor and outdoor events on that day, which was dry and 33 degrees C. Rick did look a little drained and tired, which was reflected in some of his speaking being less animated. Of the debate, Alex Cullen showed the finest form other than Michael Warman, and certainly made no major slip-ups. Despite this, I cannot say if Chiarelli or Cullen will win on this basis alone. There is a fair bit of anger in the riding towards both Guzzo and Chiarelli for being inacessible to the public. This speaks well for Cullen. Chiarelli and Guzzo have missed many public events and All Candidates meetings.
If this page still had a Liberal-NDP too close to call button, I would pick it, as I cannot be sure that Cullen will take enough liberal votes from those who knew him as a Liberal MPP.
06/01/99 OEP Email:
The race is between Chiarelli and Guzzo, but at this point I am willing to bet money on Rick. The result will be about how many vote Alex Cullen drain away from the Liberals with his former Liberal MPP credentials. If Alex runs for the Liberal, he will be sure-win. I felt bad for him that he lost the nomination (just on candidate quality, Rick is nowhere close to Alex). I am sure lots of other Liberals feel the same way, and that is why no one go after him like we go after Castrilli. As a NDP, Alex does not serve a chance. In 1995, NDP got 9.29% in Nepean, 12.62% in Rideau, and 11.65% in Ottawa West. NDP has no root in any of the three former ridings. Even with the extra "Cullen boost", NDP is still destine to come in third.
06/01/99 M Email:
I thought this would be the tightest race in the Eatsren region, a three way race, no less! But it's turning out to be less and less interesting. Chiarelli definitely has a huge advantage if lawn signs are any indication. He seems to be opening a lead on Guzzo and Cullen. I am curious as to why Cullen isn't using NDP colours or NDP signs... his own look terrible.
06/01/99 lrs Email:
in other parts of Ontario- I would say seat goes Tory but in Ottawa area seat goes Liberal- unless NDP vote stronger than expected to allow Tory to slip through if Liberals lose here- hello Tory majority
06/02/99 Big Mike Email:
Alex Cullen and Chiarelli are both popular enough to each get some votes. That means that the well-known and respected Guzzo will easily slide in due to a split vote. However, if all the PC supporters out there don't get out and vote, then it might not be that easy.
06/02/99 Big Mike Email:
Alex Cullen and Chiarelli are both popular enough to each get some votes. That means that the well-known and respected Guzzo will easily slide in due to a split vote. However, if all the PC supporters out there don't get out and vote, then it might not be that easy.

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Last Updated 2nd June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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