1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Gordon Hunter
Progressive Conservative Party:
John Baird MPP
New Demorcratic Party:
Craig Parsons
Freedom Party:
Bill Frampton
Natural Law Party:
Brian Jackson

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Nepean (62%):
John Baird
Carleton (43%):
Hon. Norman Sterling
Ottawa Rideau (11%):
Garry Guzzo

Member of Parliament:
David Pratt

Surrounding Ridings
Ottawa Centre
Ottawa West-Nepean

Population: 99 709
Avg Household Income 69 975
Language (Home)
English 92 175
Submitted Information
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03/02/99 Mark Jeays Email: mjeays@hotmail.com
I believe the conservatives will win as John Baird is popular, the region usually votes conservative for provincial elections, the other candidates are pretty well unknown, and most people are well-off.
03/03/99 Email: 3arb@qlink.queensu.ca
Shame that this is such a safe Tory riding because Rusty Baird is really insufferably arrogant.
Too Close
03/15/99 Terry Richmond Email:
I fail to see why others are predicting John Baird will win. His lack of action on any of the important issues is the major block to his re-election.
03/16/99 Kirk Jacobs Email: K_Jacobs@hotmial.com
I am not normally a PC voter, but John Baird has impressed me at every turn. The fact that the previous writer states that John Baird has done nothing is bunk and shows that the opposition has had their eyes shut for the past few years. In a time of school closures, John Baird fought for and got funding for five additional schools. He was on the leading edge of the Welfare Reform Committee that has resulted in over $100 million in savings. Working in the Ministry of Finance he has helped to cut the deficit and lower taxes over 60 times. John baird is extremly accessable and always involved in the community events. People like the last writer are against him only because he is a Tory. He is the best representitive this area has seen in a long, long time. Even if people are against Harris, they should vote for John Baird because of his dedication to the people of our community.
03/29/99 Gascan Al Email: GascanAl@aol.com
In my opinion, John Baird has combined the energy of youth with a political savvy well beyond his years. He has shown an impressive acumen in fighting for local issues like new schools, against Ottawa amalgamation and tough impaired driving laws. All of these issues resonate with Nepean residents beyond the general Harris mantra. I hear Baird's work ethic is well respected around Queen's Park and he will be a key player in the next Harris government.
04/14/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
A lesson in what a little boundary shifting can do. The former riding of Nepean, long Tory, was seemingly cemented as part of Ottawa's "Liberal belt" in 1987 and 1990; then Baird surprised many by snatching it back in 1995. Almost certainly, the old entity would have been a Grit target in '99, not least for its proximity to "McGuinty country". But now the Ottawa-bordering inner edge of Nepean has been adzed away, and rural/exurban Osgoode, Rideau, and Goulbourn Townships--previously Norm Sterling's "safe zone"--have been appended. The result: a constituency that would only have given the Liberals a 2 or 3 point margin in the black PC year of 1987, and the PCs a solid advantage in '90 and (needless to say)'95. And much, much easier breathing for John Baird, who is after all too young and eager a beaver for Mike Harris to absently sacrifice. Welcome to the (real or shadow?) cabinet table, John.
04/14/99 wn Email:
Most likely Baird will hold on. However, for someone to say he played a part in cutting the deficit and taxes because he served as a parliamentary assistant is an absolute joke. Many strong Tories feel Baird is an embarrassing goof. But a re-electable goof nonetheless.
04/19/99 B. Bell Email: bdbbell@hotmail.com
Although many of the previous comments were accurate to some extent, many have failed to recognize one particular area. Two debates exists within each riding: the government's performance and the MPP's performance. I would say the government has done quite well in a number of categories usually reserved for evaluating performace: doing what they said they would do, increasing job growth, lowering the debt, etc. John Baird has been a member of that government and will be judged accordingly. However, what many fail to recognize is his work and committment to Nepean itself. Fighting amalgamation, securing funding for schools, always interacting with constituents, etc. He has come to my door twice over the last 4 years. I can't remember the last time ANY elected official did that (except during elections). His work and the governments mostly solid record will secure this riding.
05/09/99 A.L. Email: 3arb@qlink.queensu.ca
Gordon Hunter is a seasoned, popular regional councillor who may be much tougher competition than Baird is expecting, and Baird did not win in a landslide last time. While this riding will likely stay Tory an upset is quite possible, especially if the Tory's provincial campaign loses steam.

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Last Updated 1st June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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