1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
John Cleary MPP
Progressive Conservative Party:
Hon. Noble Villeneuve MPP
New Democratic Party:
Maggie MacDonald
Natural Law Party:
Ian Campbell

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Cornwall (100%):
John Cleary
SDG & East Grenville (50%):
Hon. Noble Villeneuve

Member of Parliament:
Bob Kilger

Surrounding Ridings

Population: 92 846
Avg Household Income 41 836
Language (Home)
English 76 225
French 12 595
Submitted Information
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02/22/99 Burke Christian Email: external@msu.mcmaster.ca
I believe this riding will go PC again in the next election. The sitting MPP is the Minister of Agriculture and has been a strong local advocate. The federal election results for Bob Kilger were not as strong as the general trend in the province. My grandmother lives in this riding and has voted Liberal all her life, but maintains that the only way for Villenevue to be defeated is if the Liberals have a landslide victory. He survived in 90, he will survive in 99.
02/23/99 Burke Christian Email: external@msu.mcmaster.ca
This riding will most likely go PC in the election. Noble Villenuvue is a very popular local candidate. My grandmother has lived in the riding all her life and she says that the only way that he will be defeated is if there is a liberal sweep of the province which at the moment is unlikely. John Cleary however, is very popular in Cornwall. I think it will come down to who gets there vote out and it will be a rural vs. Cornwall vote. I think however it will be PC by +5%.
03/05/99 I.MacFarlane Email: imacfarlane@accel.net
Popular Liberal MPP will narrowly defeat a Harris Cabinet Minister. He has the advantage of redistribution since all most all of his riding is in the new one. The Agriculture minister will lose out in the riding which appears to be much more urban than his old one.
03/26/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
A very tough one--two clear "favourites" in head-on collision course. In *this* corner, Noble Villeneuve, successor to his father Osie Villeneuve, miraculous survivor of the '87 PC blitz, now Agriculture Minister and the lead Franco-Tory in caucus. And, in *this* corner, John "Mr. Cornwall" Cleary, whose electoral machine has snowballed with each election and by 1995 gave him Ontario's highest Liberal percentage. My informal 1995 estimate within the present boundaries shows less than 100 votes separating the two candidates. Bite your nails.
04/08/99 NOW Email:
Cooking up a Tory defeat By Enzo di Matteo
A breakdown of the 1995 vote in this riding composed of the old Cornwall and Stormont-Dundas-Glengarry constituencies shows Tory agriculture minister Noble Villeneuve winning by a razor-thin 43 votes.
Complicating matters for Villeneuve this time around, however, is the fact that he's facing off against Grit MPP John Cleary, who's held the Cornwall seat since 87 and won it running away by more than 6,700 votes in the face of the 95 Tory tide.
04/10/99 dc Email:
Osie Villeneuve was not Noble Villeneuve's father. Villeneuve is a fairly common surname in Eastern Stormont and Western Glengarry (Moose Creek, Monkland, Maxville) area. Redistribution has chopped off the Glengarry area of the riding and added Cornwall and Cornwall Township. Something that cannot be ignored is that Cornwall has a large Francophone population and Villeneuve is Minister of Francophone Affairs. (so Cleary's advantage in Cornwall might not be large as it seems)
04/18/99 L.O. Email: petercashin@yahoo.com
From everything I have heard from freinds in this area, this riding wants Villneuve to be their MPP. This riding will go Tory. The margin won't be much, but they'll pull it off just by bagging enough neighborhoods.
04/18/99 Mike O'Brien Email: l.obrien@nf.sympatico.ca
Villneuve will win, but not by a lot because of redistribution and a strong NDP candidate.
Correction:NDP has not yet set a nominaton date.
05/03/99 Jacques Roy Email:
Noble Villeneuve is a cabinet minister in the Harris government and he did nothing, I repeat, nothing for this riding to help us recover from the ice storm. People have not forgotten how Villeneuve threw up his hands and walked away from his responsiblity. This is why John Cleary is going to get elected here. As an opposition MPP he did what he could to help us from the storm and continues to be out in the riding talking to people. Being in cabinet, Villeneuve is not in touch with the voters in Stormont-Dundas. This will cost Nobel his seat.
05/13/99 A. P. Renaud Email:
Je n'habite pas la circonscription de Stormont-Dundas-Charlottenburg mais, selon ma parenté qui y habite, M. Villeneuve a failli d'appuyer et de bien représenter la communauté agricole et rurale lors de la « Grande Tempête». Peut-on lui faire confiance maintenant?
Translation: I am not a resident of the riding of Stormont-Dundas-Charlottenburg, however, my relatives who do reside in the riding have told me that Mr. Villeneuve failed to support and represent the farming and rural community of the riding during and after the "Storm". Will he now come to their rescue?
05/24/99 Toronto Star Email:
Eastern riding a rare display of unity by Caroline Mallan
"But Cleary is being strongly backed by a loose alliance of labour groups, teachers and nurses who will support the person most likely to defeat Villeneuve.
While the alliance is falling apart in some of the targeted ridings because labour groups cannot overcome longstanding hostility, in this part of eastern Ontario organizers on the ground say it is working and they expect Cleary will win the seat June 3.
One of the people on hand to greet McGuinty at a campaign stop yesterday at a waterfront restaurant in Long Sault was Syd Gardner, the NDP candidate for the riding in 1995, who is vocally supporting the Liberals this time around.
And Cleary has also received a strong endorsement from George Samis, who held the riding for the New Democrats from 1974 until 1985, when he stepped down from provincial politics. Samis now lives in the Kingston area, but is canvassing for Cleary in his old riding."
05/24/99 Mike Email: bedlam@magi.com
The lack of a credible NDP campaign means a head-to-head race that Noble Villeneuve is unlikely to win.
05/26/99 P. Kasman Email:
John Cleary will almost definitly take this riding. I was in this riding yesterday and I will tell you this, next prov. election WATCH OUT for the NDP. By the next election Cleary and Villineuve will retire, the NDP candidite is young, articulate and is in for the long hull. How do I know these things? I went to an agriculture debate there last night and taked to all three. Through in that a VERY strong NDP candidate plans to run in the next fed. election and this seat WILL return to the NDP in 1 or 2 elections from now.
05/29/99 A. Email:
Villeneuve has been a high-profile regional minister. Not exactly setting the world on fire at the provincial level, but widely seen as representing Eastern Ontario and francophone interests. Franco-Ontarians will also want some assurance that they'll be represented in the next cabinet, and Villeneuve is the only francophone Tory candidate likely to qualify. Cleary is certainly strong, but I think the edge should go to Villeneuve.
05/31/99 J.V. Email: justinv@uvic.ca
Villeneuve will pull it out on the strength of Tory coatails. Lastest Angus Reid poll gives the Conservatives 52% in Eastern Ontario (tied with 905 region for highest level of Tory support in province). This will give Tories the edge in Stormont-Dundas as well as Ottawa West-Nepean and even Carleton-Gloucester, along with their usual stronholds.
06/01/99 lrs Email:
I know Harris went there last week and so did McGuinty but if agricultural minister likely to go down to defeat- why would harris go to Kingston instead- perhaps logistics since coming back to Toronto- ironical if agricutural minister loses and pcs win majority of rural seats

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Last Updated 2nd June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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