1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Prince Edward-Hastings

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Ernie Parsons
Progressive Conservative Party:
Gary Fox MPP
New Democratic Party:
Bev Campbell
Green Party:
Shawn Talbot
Confederation of Regions Party:
Marie Hineman
Natural Law Party:
Sylvie Poirier
Trueman Tuck
Kevin Rivers

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Quinte (77%):
Doug Rollins
Prince Edward Lennox (59%):
Gary Fox

Member of Parliament:
Hon. Lyle Vanclief

Surrounding Ridings

Population: 92 417
Avg Household Income 44 298
Language (Home)
English 87 930
Submitted Information
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03/02/99 c.Fielding Email: hfield@connect.reach.net
Suffered under Rae and Peterson,has done well under Harris
Too Close
03/05/99 I.MacFarlane Email: imacfarlane@accel.net
Weak Tory incumbant Liberals could easily take it with a strong candidate.
03/06/99 NP Email: mnrae@accglobal.net
Doug Rollins should win the nomination for the Conservatives. He is well respected in the riding which traditionally votes for the government party. This riding will never go NDP because of its constant inability to produce reputable candidates, provincially and federally. But depending on who the Liberal candidate is in PE-H it could be very close. After election night count this one for the PCs.
Too Close
03/09/99 a.s. Email: adma@interlog.com
Whether Doug Rollins or Gary Fox is running, can't be so sure it's such a drop in the PC bucket. True, Prince Edward County's had a Tory history apart from the Peterson-Rae interlude (and yes, there WAS a NDPer elected here--Paul Johnson--in 1990). But despite what NP says, the Quinte part--Rollins' current constituency--has not gone consistently with the government party. Even as the province was electing PC and NDP governments, Quinte remained the fiefdom of Liberal Hugh O'Neil, and his chosen successor in 1995 still scored an impressive 40% against Rollins. There's still a strong urban "Loyalist Liberal" tradition along the Belleville-Trenton axis that cannot be counted out by a long shot.
Too Close
03/09/99 Snooze Email:
The people of PE-H are among the most backward of the entire province. Perhaps it is the water, one of the most polluted bodies of water in North America, the Bay of Quinte, which makes them that way. The riding has done well under the Harris Conservatives but would vote Liberal at the drop of a hat if they thought he was a winner. Great big loud increased funding announcements to the Belleville hospital and new businesses sprouting up hither, thither, and yon should be an obvious sign of meaningful growth. But, one must recall that this is Belleville, the UNfriendly city where the residents can't see past the ends of their noses. Parsons may be able to swoo enough support from these people, especially in THE COUNTY, to squeak through. I like the NDP candidate, Barb Dolan, who usually runs in the provincial and federal elections. She must be the only New Democrat in this polar opposite of an NDP riding. She stands out from the other residents because as a telephone operator and mother she brings a rare characteristic to PE-H politics, honesty.
03/16/99 Email: rhird@sympatico.ca
The only declared candidate is a woman from Picton, Bev Campbell. Bev is dedicated activist, and is well know among social circles that deal with women's issues, children, and elderly. She is a different type of candidate than Gary Fox, or Doug Rollins. With Doug continually spouting off about being the "messenger of the Gov't" and Gary not being all that well known, Bev has a good shot at the Riding. With past Candidate, Barb Dolan, helping in the campaign, we hope to draw attention to Labour issues, that in the past were not well received in the riding,and to bring forward a candidate that is prepared to be a "messenger of the people" Ernie Parsons appears ready to throw some real money into advertising, and to lean on Lyle's popularity.
04/10/99 Email: snider@aol.com
With Gary Fox's huge win at the nomination meeting in Belleville today, the PC's are sure to win this seat. Fox is well known and most feel he's done a pretty good job. The right candidate for this riding.
04/13/99 Toronto Star Email:
3 Tory MPPs lose chance to run again by Joel Ruimy
The latest round began Friday night in the new eastern Ontario riding of Prince Edward-Hastings, where farmer Gary Fox (Prince Edward-Lennox) beat out Doug Rollins (Quinte) for the party nod.
Results of the vote were not made public but a source said Fox polled 900 votes to more than 500 for Rollins. Prince Edward-Hastings is considered a marginally safe Tory seat.
Fox and Rollins, also a farmer and owner of a gas station, were both elected for the first time in the 1995 election that saw Premier Mike Harris' Tories win by a landslide.
05/04/99 Kelly Mawhinney Email:
Ernie Parsons is going to win this riding for two reasons. First of all Gary Fox is a very weak member of parliament and has done nothing for this area. If you walk down the street I bet you couldn't find a voter who could tell you one thing Fox has done to make this riding better. Second of all, Ernie Parsons is very well known and well liked. He will make Fox look bad at the all candidates meetings and will win in the end.
05/15/99 D C Email:
A fifth candiate has entered the fray here. Downtown vitamin store owner Trueman Tuck is running as an independent. Other notable events in the area had Tory candidate Gary Fox not attending the first of two all-candidate meetings being held in Belleville because he felt it was catering to special interest groups (The first meeting was being sponsored by unions from Loyalist College, the second one is being sponsored by the Belleville Chamber of Commerce) and because it has on the same day as another campaign event. The lawn sign count on the portion of the riding north of the Bay is pretty even but I haven't been over to Prince Edward County where I suspect Mr. Fox is more popular than Mr. Parsons
05/19/99 The Intelligencer (Belleville) Email:
Poor turnout to hear candidates by Chris Malette
Tory Prince Edward-Hastings candidate Gary Fox was clearly on the hot seat Tuesday in a sparsely attended all-candidates meeting at the city's Legion Hall. Fox was joined on the podium by Liberal Ernie Parsons, Independent Kevin Rivers, Green Party's Shawn Talbot, Confederation of Regions' Marie Hineman, New Democrat Bev Campbell, and Independent Trueman Tuck. ..... Fewer than 80 people attended the meeting. But, those who did focused their attention on Fox and, to a lesser extent, on Parsons in pointed questions about the Tories' record and the Liberals' proposals. Fox poorly handled a question from the audience on why his government has given "unilateral power" to the finance minister to set tax rates, responding only that he managed to secure some special circumstances fudning for the city of Belleville.
05/25/99 Email:
I returned here to vote in the advanced poll on Saturday and I believe that Gary Fox will win. Although he is not very well known in Belleville he has the entire county covered because of his experience as Prince Edward county reeve. A drive through the Tyendinaga reserve turned up a surprise. Some native businesses and residences were showing non-traditional support for Gary Fox (PC) while the odd lawn sported a Parsons (Lib) sign.
I met a worker for Parsons at my door yesterday (a teacher, surprise) who summed up his reception in the county as a "not bad" response. Yeah right, Fox will slam dunk the county. Bev Campbell (NDP), whoever she is, has support from every intersection in the riding.
Also, there's a bit of a scandel happening here. A student at Quinte Secondary School took his camera to school and snapped off several pictures of large 4x8 Parsons (Lib) signs under construction in the school shop. The boy was quoted in the Intelligencer as saying roughly "I just thought that teachers shouldn't be spending class time working on politics when they should be teaching us." The story made the front page of the Intell and I don't believe this will sit well with the electorate or improve their view of teachers in Ontario. Parsons played stupid to the whole affair while Fox played it pretty cool.
Marie Hineman (COR), a long time resident of the county and the widow of a one-time political editorialist, Ken Hineman, has a minute chance to make a difference in the final results. I have never heard tell of any of the other candidates and I suspect they will play a minimal role in the outcome of PE-H. The ballot was awfully confusing though!
05/25/99 L.S. Email:
Judging by all-candidate meetings (and no-shows) signs around the riding and press coverage, it would appear as though Parsons may take the riding back to the Liberal side. It appears as though the party seems to have set aside hard feelings from the last provincial election and is drawing on the skills of the Vanclief and O'Neil organizations. As well, it would appear as though the Strategic Voting may be the deciding factor in the local campaign. One has to remember that even if the trend across the province is to re-elect the Conservatives, the ridings of Northumberland, Prince Edward-Hastings amd Kingston and the Islands bucked the trend from the days of the Free Trade debate and returned Liberal members to parliament. Much of the credit for that success must go to the organizations that Hugh O'Neil drew together in Eastern Ontario and was used by the federal organizations. Most of these people have been working on this campaign for some time. Rollins won last time in Quinte (now part of Prince Edward-Hastings) because the Liberal nomination led to a split that was not healed before the Writ was dropped.
05/27/99 Robin Email:
I was amused in listening to the local radio station today to hear that, at the all-candidates meeting in Belleville last night, questions were posed to an empty chair, which should have been occupied by Tory candidate Gary Fox. There was much airplay about Fox's fear of facing the people. Fox tried to defend himself by saying the organizers, the Coalition for Social Justice, and the Teachers Federation were special interest groups. The radio announcer questioned whether Fox would attend the next all-candidates meeting in Picton, organised by the Federation of Labour, or whether farmers were a special interest group.
06/01/99 Slacker Email:
As the day for the final vote draws near, support for Ernie Parsons has increased. The latest poll taken by a local radio station put Ernie in the lead with 65-70% of the vote. Dispite complaints that Ernie is the 'teachers candidate' he has support from all different kinds of people.

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Last Updated 1st June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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