1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Hastings-Frontenac-Lennox & Addington

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Leona Dombrowsky
Progressive Conservative Party:
Harry Danford MPP
New Democratic Party:
Allan MacPhail
Green Party:
Cathy Vakil
Family Coalition Party:
John-Henry Westen
Natural Law Party:
Peter Leggat
Karl Walker

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Frontenac-Addington (54%):
Bill Vankoughnet
Hastings-Peterborough (52%):
Harry Danford
Prince Edward-Lennox (41%):
Gary Fox

Member of Parliament:
Larry McCormick

Surrounding Ridings
Kingston and the Islands
Prince Edward-Hastings

Population: 90 424
Avg Household Income 42 323
Language (Home)
English 86 980
Submitted Information
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02/28/99 Email: 3arb@qlink.queensu.ca
According to the Kingston Whig-Standard MPP Bill VanKoughnet will be seeking the Tory nomination here. He seems to have kept his riding association behind him despite his arrest for soliciting a prostitute in Toronto. Voters won't be as forgiving, especially as the chorus of "Where's Bill" continues in response to his ongoing absence from the riding. While the NDP won this riding in 1990 with Fred Wilson it's unlikely they can win it this time, especially after redistribution. Chalk this one up for the Liberals if VanKoughnet is the Tory nominee, as is almost certain.
Too Close
03/01/99 R.I. Email:
The NDP candidate has not declared yet. If Elmer Buchanan, former MPP for Hastings-Peterborough and Minister of Agriculture, decides to run, the NDP will have a good chance of taking the riding. Dombrowski is in trouble. She chairs a school board where the teachers have just voted to strike. Too early to call.
Too Close
03/03/99 Email: 3arb@qlink.queensu.ca
I didn't realise Elmer Buchanan was running. The former agriculture minister is very popular among farmers and he could have a lot of personal pull in this largely rural riding. In any case, I still think Vankoughnet is toast:)
Too Close
03/07/99 MK Email: mnrae@accglobal.net
Having lived and worked in this monstrosity of a riding I feel that a majority of the people are conservative minded. Federally, the Conservatives and Reformers split the vote here in the last election. Bill Vankoughnet has been the MP and MPP for quite a while and should have good name recognition in Bancroft and especially in Napanee. However, I cannot get a pulse on whether or not Vankoughnet's prostitution charge will be a factor among voters in HFL&A.
03/09/99 I.MacFarlane Email:
Leona Dombrowsky is a very strong and well known candidate having served on the school board. She could easily win in a three way race.
04/01/99 onno Email:
Allan McPhail was nominated as the NDP Candidate in HFL&A and is well known in the labour movement in the Kingston area.
04/10/99 DC Email:
As per the Belleville intelligencer Hastings-Peterborough MPP Harry Danford is running for the nomination vs. Bill V.K. This is a real monster of a riding sizewise. Harry Danford was a former Hastings County warden. Liberal candidate Drombowsky is chair of the Algonquin Lakeshore Roman Catholic School Board (which covers the entire riding and then some) She and Prince Edward Hastings Liberal candidate Ernie Parsons (chair of the Hastings Prince Edward Public school board) have both had negative editorials in the Belleville Intelligencer for retain their school board positions and running for office..
04/10/99 Email:
Harry Danford beat Vankoughnet for the PC nomination today. That pretty much removes the last hope the opposition parties had to gang up on a weak incumbant. Lots of reasons why the Tories will win by a huge margin a) This is as about a historically Tory seat as there is in Ontario. b) This has the notorious distinction as about the worst Liberal riding in the 1995 election. c) The well-liked former NDP member is not running again d) this riding has both huge areas of Reform and Fedearl PC vote. Put it all together it spells PC landslide.
04/13/99 Toronto Star Email:
3 Tory MPPs lose chance to run again by Joel Ruimy
On Saturday, in the neighbouring riding of Hastings-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington, Harry Danford (Hastings-Peterborough) bested Bill Vankoughnet (Frontenac-Addington) for the Tory nod in that relatively safe Tory seat.
Danford, a personable farmer and rookie MPP, had been seen as the underdog in the contest with Vankoughnet, who served 14 years in the House of Commons before winning his first provincial election in 1995.
Vankoughnet, an administrator, sold more memberships than his rival.
But his chances may have been hurt by his 1996 arrest after seeking the services of a Parkdale prostitute who turned out to be an undercover police woman.
Results were not published but a source say Danford ``wiped out'' his opponent.
04/12/99 IH Email:
Harry Danford has hardly shown his face in the riding during the mandate of the Harris government. Whatever voter-appeal he has, stems from his years as local politician. On the other hand, he has piles of money to spend on advertising. Nevertheless, a clever campaign by either Leona Dombrowsky or Allan McPhail has a good chance to unseat the incumbent.
04/13/99 IH Email: bastbury@cupe.ca
I believe that Allan McPhail, the NDP candidate is an excellent candidate and indeed does have a chance to succeed in this election. Allan has been active in the labour movement for many years and has earned the respect of the working people through his hard work and commitment to not only workers but to the community as a whole.
04/14/99 Alex P Email:
Allan McPhail should not be counted out of a race that has yet to be run. He is a good candidate, a family man with roots in his community and a willingness to work hard to accomplish what needs to be done. If other candidates put as much into the community as Allan we would not have to worry about who we elected.
04/16/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
The Tories must be sighing in relief, now that the nomination process has apparently saved them from risking an otherwise "safe" seat on a lame-duck John School alumnus. But it's an eccentrically composed "safe" seat. For the record, HFL&A would have delivered a PC-Lib dead heat in '87, a mild NDP advantage over PC in '90, and a mild second-place NDP advantage over the Grits in '95. Danford's old seat saw the only lost Liberal deposit in '95 (and nearly the same in '90); aside from the Tweed area, northern Hastings County--the backwaterish home of the Elmer Buchanan NDP machine--is the biggest Liberal dead zone there is, where *both* PC *and* Reform equalled or surpassed Larry McCormick in '97. But other parts of the riding, such as the Lennox "Loyalist Belt", can potentially make up for that deficiency, and the Liberals have a far more credible candidate in Dombrowsky than their past record might justify. In the NDP's case, HFL&A is like Cambridge in that the solid support of a well-respected past MPP (Buchanan here, Farnan there) can go a long, long way. Split opposition, maybe? Or something else?
04/21/99 Email: salmon@kos.net
Opinion poll results released to local media today show that the majority of voters in HFL&A are planning to vote Liberal in the next provincial election. The telephone survey, conducted from Mar 22 through April 8, shows the Liberals in the lead with 42%, the Conservatives with 34%, and the NDP at 13% of decided vote. Other results highlights: almost 70% feel that the overall quality of health services available to people in the riding had gotten worse over the last four years. Almost 60% feel that overall education services had gotten worse over the last four years. 73% feel that downloading of services by the provincial government to local governments has increased property taxes. 83% feel that because of downloading, future property taxes will increase in future. Job creation, care for seniors and disapproval of the current Conservative government (ie., partisan advertising at taxpayers' expense) topped the list of other local voter concerns. Combine this with today's announcement by the Liberal Candidate, Leona Dombrowsky, that she has established a store front office in Napanee, already has "virtual" offices in Sydenham,Amherstview, Amherst Island, Bancroft, Tweed, Marmora, Stirling, Tamworth, Kaladar, Sharbot Lake and Denbigh, has a toll free number, email address and website up and running, and has been going door to door for four months. With voter dissatisfaction with the current government high, a very organized campaign, and ahead in the opinion polls, chalk this one up to the Liberals.
04/21/99 Leith R.A. Coghlin Email:
The comment of salmon@kos.net is very interesting indeed! He or she is basing the outcome of the election on an unscientific telephone poll. Even if the telephone poll contained more than 400 responses (which I supremely doubt, but fill me in on the numbers) the margin of error would be significant. Liberals are notorious for leading in polls up until, and going into elections, but end up the losers because they simply cannot maintain their standings. In 1988 people were boasting how the 95 of 130 seat Petersen government would be untouchable in an upcoming election. Two years later, the legislature contained 74 NDPers and the "untouchable" Liberals were defeated admirably -arrogance does not re-elect. Lyn McLeod and her Liberals were ahead of Harris' Tories going into the 95 election, but the Tories crushed McLeod, capturing 46% of the vote compared to the Liberals' poor mid-thirties standing. I will agree that any time there is a very organized campaign, and voter dissatisfaction is high, the odds are in the opposition campaign's favour. However, the Liberals have no conception of the word "organisation," and even if they did, they lack resources and finances to maintain a well-run campaign. The unveiling of the Liberal platform at Queen's Park yesterday occured in the company of no more than 50 people; which I am sorry, does not lend any credibilty to Liberal organisation. Look for the crowd at the unveiling of Harrris' platform next week, and we shall see who is organised!
04/26/99 Email: salmon@kos.net
Concerning HFL&A opinion poll accuracy - the survey was designed by research professionals and political issues experts who volunteered their services to Leona Dombrowsky's campaign team. A detailed analysis was made of voter population numbers and distribution across the riding. Phone numbers were chosen at random from each of the 38 telephone exchanges, reflecting the percentage of voters in each exchange. The identities of the respondents were not known by the pollsters, nor were they asked as part of the survey. 806 surveys were completed. When Angus Reid conducts its cross-Ontario polls, 1,000 surveys are used to represent an estimated 9 million voters (.007 %). The local poll surveyed 1.2% of the estimated 68,000 riding voters, taking into account regional distribution and gender. This is over 100 times the sample percentage of Angus Reid. Accuracy is estimated at +- 1%.
04/29/99 Steve Email:
With respect to the gentleman who commented that the Liberal Party lacks organization - I must comment on that. Having read about Mrs. Dombrowsky's central campaign office opening in all the weekly papers(along with virtual offices spread across this huge riding, electronically connected to everyone), her email address and her 1-877 campaign hotline phone number, it seems to me that that these things do not happen overnite. I have already received a pamphlet in the mail as well. The fact that she has been to all four corners of this riding more then once, and is accessible by anyone who has a stamp, telephone, computer, or answers a doorbell, tells me that her organization has been in place, and running, for quite a few months. She is a strong, knowledgeable candidate and will make the local election campaign one to watch closely.
05/14/99 R Email:
a LARGE riding that has shown some swing potential Federal and Provincial and i am not referring to the former member. The old Tory Blue is a thing of the past. If the polls in Ontario show that it is close over all the province this place will go Liberal. A big factor will be good weather and a good turnout election day . A large turnout will mean a Liberal win as people vent displeasure against the government.The Conservative candidate is an honourable man but will be easily bested in debate by the articulate Liberal candidate.
05/19/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Strategic voting at work--I was through the Napanee part a few days ago, and was surprised by the paucity of Danford signs (perhaps residual anger at Bill VK?) and the ubiquity of the eye-grabbing Dombrowsky "silhouette" (nothing like a distinctive election sign to capture one's imagination...). The NDP signs, meanwhile, were confined to a few forlorn intersections--their erstwhile support seemed to be sliding straight to Dombrowsky. I don't know how different it is in the true "Danford country" of Hastings, or how the leaders' debate will alter the balance, but as I saw it, it appeared to be a far closer race than anyone counted on...
05/21/99 Robin Email:
At an all-candidate meeting in Bancroft this week Leona Dombrowski won hands down. She was articulate, charming, and displayed a good grasp of the issues. Allan McPhail seemed a pleasant fellow, but one with much homework to do yet. Harry Danford antagonized the audience with his total lack of sensitivity to the plight of an unemployed worker. In Bancroft many jobs have been lost in the last four years with ministries such as MNR and MTO downsizing or moving out. Harry talked of another man who had lost his job three years ago and now owned his own business. Harry said this man now thanked him for his job loss. The locals were not impressed.
05/23/99 Jim Burnett Email: 6jfb@qlink.queensu.ca
Many people I have talked to in the riding have been impressed by Dombrowsky's organization. However, she really doesn't have much of a chance to take this traditional Tory riding. For one, people have been really turned off her signs, that do not look like traditional Liberal signs. They are stereotypical signs, that depict a woman going off to work with a briefcase flying in her hand (ala Mary Tyler Moore). There are confusing themes on these signs like "accept no substitutes", and "satisfaction garanteed". I have no idea what these signs mean -- either does the electorate. With the Tories headed for another majority, Danford has this one hands down.
05/27/99 A.L. Email: 3arb@qlink.queensu.ca
The signs may be odd but there are a lot of them. Driving on highway 2 yesterday I saw far more Liberal signs on private property than Tory signs. True, this is only one part of a huge riding, the more "urban" part at that but it seems the Liberal is doing well in the south part of the riding, at least.
05/28/99 RR Email:
Its over, the Liberals are going to win if they can get the massive vote election day. The indicators (besides the sign battle), the local paper the BEAVER had more favourable coverage for the Liberal candidate example an article about Amherst Island being Liberal while the article about the conservative is about how fortunate he was not to have been hurt too badly when bit by a dog. After a debate at the Napanee school the liberal candidate in an informal election by students polled more votes than the others combined. Seniors are mad as h... about cuts to support workers... If you want to show this survey works you can go out on a limb and call this one a done deal...no fooling!
05/31/99 Andrew Drummond Email: prefix_16309@hotmail.com
I see a prediction in this riding as simply a matter of numbers. Also, the tories are way ahead since they DIDN'T go with Bill. According to the latest provincial poll, in Eastern Ontario, the support breaks down into PC 52, LIB 36, NDP 11. The Liberals are likely to take all of the seats (or at least most of them) in Ottawa. They will also win in Kingston, and possibly Cornwall. This covers half of the Eastern Ontario ridings. Therefore PC support MUST be INCREDIBLY strong in the rural ridings such as this one. That's why the PC will win.
06/01/99 Mike Mills Email: mills@lks.net
This part of the riding in central and northern Hastings county has seen a swing to the Liberals based on sign display on private property, and on conversations with NDP voters who have decided to vote strategically. It will hurt, but they do not want to see Harry Danford in again at any costs. Traditional voting patterns seem to be on their way out with the increasing numbers of ex-urban voters in the rural townships. Many of the riding workers are from the disaffected teaching and nursing professions. Advertizing is appearing supported by the local Building trades who wish to defeat Harris, and the "Yours to recover" signs are on many lawns. The final poll will decide, but this looks like a squeaker for the Liberals.

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Last Updated 2nd June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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